Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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Great post, @Keith. Meaty, with a personal opinion attached. Respect.
The scenario depends 100% on the Sandjet testing doing the job intended, with the results confirmatory of the drilling assumptions. Not sure what "cos" factor to apply to that possibility. 90%+?
Why go to the cost of commissioning a document to officially increase the gcos? It doesn't improve the actual cos, and as we are fully funded, we don't need to 'big up' or promote. In fact, some have suggested PG is deliberately slow playing his hand.
Agree, however i never personally made insults Keith, i just asked questions and posted what my views were, differing to yours in some aspects ….just like chariot ( where i also hold shares , a similar amount to here ) we are now at the time where enough has been said covering most every negative and positive of every aspect , opinion and view and the only thing that actually matters now is hard proof and facts , which will only come when we commence operations and release the results..
I have a simple philosophy - if people are nice and polite to me, I will be polite and helpful in return. If they poke at me with a sharp stick, I will take it from them and smack them over the head with it. A distinct improvement in this board today, long may it remain so.
Why what news do you think we will get before August?
You're so transparent, Fred.
Roll on August then for the next potential positive news .
@keithoz, thanks for explaining, … even though you have been horrible to me ,I have upticked that post. !
@TheBold. To be 'official', it would need to be in an ITR or CPR, which cost a lot of time and money to produce. In my opinion, and I recall that of Jimmy's, the ITR was conservative in the extreme. See Appendix D for details - as an example of under-selling MOU-NE, they used as base case the porosity and thickness seen in TAF-1X, drilled 50km away into different rock type in a different structure - (8% and 18m respectively, I would expect 15+% and 250m. Jimmy in his post below suggested that source (and presumably also charge) to be already proven. If that is the case, removing just those two risks immediately raises the gcos to 32%. For balance. my main concern with this prospect remains that carbonate reefs can have variable reservoir characteristics, and a single borehole may not be representative of the whole structure. I have previously said here that I would not sell any shares until the earlier of 1. Paul effectively selling them for me by selling out of Morocco, or 2. after at least 4 holes had been drilled into MOU-NE. That is still my intention, but of course that should not necessarily be anyone else's plan.
Thanks Keith.
Hopefully a good flow test will result in a re rating of the share price.
I hope a long flow test occurs sufficient to prove gas below the structural spill point and hence help to proove a stratigraphic trap closure.
Jimmy
Keith
An excellent post and what many of us have posited as a way forward in terms of prove flow for CNG then sign GSA with upfront payment or complete a raise.
The technical element around depth is newer to me in terms of analysis and seems like a good option. Particularly being funded to do multiple drills.
@keithoz,
that sounds great and exciting …. why is the gcos not officially increased , last broker coverage etc still has our titanasurus prospect at 12% … if the most recent studies have factually given better read through of better rocks. source and migration , why then has the official gcos not increased officially and released as that surely would be material senstive news .. ? is there a broker or analyst report with the interpretation of an increased gcos due to this report , i would like to see it, as sounds great..
@Jimmy. The 12% gcos for MOU-5 was derived from the following %age risks: 0.45 reservoir x 0.56 sourcing x 0.65 migration x 0.71 trap & sealing. Given that the most recent study gives a thick layer of source rock directly under and in contact with the carbonate bank and as part of the same anticlinal structure, that reduces the risk of both sourcing and migration. The multiplier effect of reducing two of the four risk factors is considerable.
Keith .
Thank you for your summary and views,
We know that mou 4 encountered 2 meters of good carbonate reservoir with very high gas saturations, and that in the shallow zone 50 meters of reservoir was gas bearing , per neutech.
So it seems to me that source rock in the area has been proven and is not the factor behind the it’s gcos of 12% for mou 5.
You stated.” As an aside, these recent source-rock studies greatly increase the gcos over that suggested in the January ITR“
Can you please explain your point further.
Jimmy
If the chosen strategy is to now use OHNYM’s old banger, that’ll be interesting. Still if it could start before the extension runs out and eventually reach TD, then bring it on!
Let me try to summarise some off-board discussions concerning the odd apparent timing of drilling rig use. Given that of the four companies using SV-101, only PRD actually had some kind of prepaid contract, it would reasonably be expected that PRD would get first pick. So why is there now a possibility of last go? The following is not a prediction, just a possible viewpoint.
You may recall in the Proactive presentation that Paul showed a new view of the MOU-5 prospect, including for the first time a thick layer of oil & condensate-prone source rock directly underlying the Jurassic carbonate bank. (As an aside, these recent source-rock studies greatly increase the gcos over that suggested in the January ITR). Beneath that is rock of Triassic age. The Triassic is the main reservoir for oil & gas across the whole of North Africa, including as near as Sound's Tendrara. Field work has been ongoing in the Guercif region looking at outcropping strata on the margins of the basin, with the aim of understanding the complete geological sequence beneath the centre, in particular under the MOU-NE prospect, and where in that sequence the best reservoirs are most likely to be found. Paul has said that he was going to Morocco two weeks ago to finish off this work - which would give reason not to want to start drilling MOU-5 just yet.
If, as is likely, the Triassic beneath MOU-NE is thought to be a suitable reservoir for hydrocarbons, it would be a missed opportunity not to drill a bit deeper than the 1450m previously announced. So what would be the plan?
* SandJet MOU-1, -3 & -4, flow & pressure test. Announce the results together with a definitive agreement with Afriquia Gas.
* Use the increased share price to facilitate a small capital raise.
* Apply the proceeds to drilling & testing an augmented MOU-5, bearing in mind the additional cost of an extra 500m (the SV-101 has a 2000m capacity) and the complications of separating gas, condensates & oil for flow testing.
Having added value, you have increased opportunity for obtaining a good sale price – either as a complete sale of the local Moroccan subsidiary, or else as separate components: a CNG operation with predictable cashflow; a G2P / G2EU future operation, and an oil operation.
Out of interest, about this word "troll" so often used by a certain poster to put down others.
Why are they trolls? Just because some posters see the company situation in less than blindingly obvious bullish light? I don't see the need to put down posters who genuinely use factual information, plus some interpretation or opinion, to arrive at a different conclusion. Isn't that what a BB is for?
It is always up to the reader to make his/her mind up about said posts - ravingly bullish or negative.
Nobody calls a 100% believer a "troll" for his/her view, but until the evidence comes in from company RNSs that confirms plans have been achieved, the jury has to be out on any company, anywhere.
Oh, and Mr Market is always the final arbiter. Not the poster with the mostest.
GRH. .. .. .. For the trolls on LSE
I had posted that sdx had previously used one of the old ONHYM rigs...correct
And that I would be 'surprised' if they used SV101
I was surprised
Such that ...as soon as the sdx use of SV101 became clear, I realised very important change in strategy. BTW
I try to post clues...
so folk do their own research
I have no need nor wish to tell folk what to think
It's up to everyone to use their own time and money to research for themselves
I try to point out what to look for💥
Ninja
Don't subscribe to the get it last mantra, of there are delays because Chariot decide to drill further holes or Sound/Chariot encounter issues (not unheard of) we potentially don't see the rig for even longer. In such eventuality weather can interrupt ops too. I'd rather have been next in line and drilled, it has been said previously much of the prove up drilling would be left to others so it appears a bit of a contradiction.
Also, unsure how a 10 drill campaign at our leisure because we are last in line is to be funded.
FORD i hold shares in 3 moroccan oil and gas companies and i have been very clear with that, my holding here is actually 198,455…. a lot for me.. I like to ascertain facts opposed to spin,ramp and hype as i have lost money before investing going of that.. i really like our prospects.. i like our potential and i see it as a good bet i will make money here. my average is however higher than where we are currently. i Have already said i do not belevie derampers saying we will cash raise.. our Directors have stated clearly we have all cash needed for 2024 operations.. i believe them as i am sure you do.
Things will happen when they happen. We've only just been granted the permit.
Bottom feeders out in force today.
Goldy, at least give us the decency and stop writing “us”
Negative and more negative but yet you hold 200,000 shares. Reading your posts and then saying you hold around £20,000 worth of shares you must be mad!
This is what happens when we don't get all the full picture in a returns.
-when is testing planned?
-when is drilling planned?
-when is the next raise?
The last point is because we did have the money to complete the planned works but any delays will surely eat into that.
The next returns could potentially be a raise with the rescheduled works added in to soften the blow.
-
Well he was not making that point when he advised SDX were using an ONHYM rig for their drill and we would be getting sv101 much earlier as they were not a part of the rigs chain….
GRH makes a good point about getting it last, perhaps on a rolling "we keep it as long as we need it" contract, then maybe that's to our benefit in the long run. Yes, more delays but ultimately we're much better off at the end of the day. Realistically been here long enough that a few more months won't impact me that much.
Of course it could be some clever line of "spin" from grh.
BWTFDIK.