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PRD need the extension if they want to pursue phase 2 as soon as is practicable. If they are willing to wait a couple of months, no, they don't need it. PG explained that the biggest obstacle is there would be a lengthy delay in transitioning between the current phase of the licence and the next one. If memory serves, a further payment/security is also required to move into that which we really don't want to have to do before the testing is completed.
We are not in the position whereby there is any regulatory requirement to get the extension to complete our testing, to take any other steps in order to qualify for the next stage, or any restriction on what we could do with the licence if we simply proceeded to the next phase.
In short, we don't need the extension, we want it. It is a PRD self-chosen pre-requisite to have in place to start the phase 2 testing.
I agree that PG should not have taken his eye off that ball. I would say I can understand it. Having processed all the other amendments smoothly, it is natural to believe the same would happen again. He did not know of the change of ministry staff or the effect it would have and he accepted that was on him.
As an investor in this company, the one thing which concerns me is the PG's lack of focus on Guercif. It surprises me that he took his eye off the ball, with regard to Amendment #4, on the project which is meant to be the company-maker.
In case anyone missed it," the reddit post link" was put back up yesterday at 11.57am by h.p.bob, famous for his onions,(watchout there is a frost coming next week). im still reading it and trying to digest the huge amount of information and the possibilities for prd shareholders,, cheers, bob, methodology and grh.
But PRD does seem to think they absolutely need the extension #4…
Regulatory approval of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement Amendment #4, which is proposing to extend the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement to 5 June 2024, is a pre-requisite before Phase 2 testing operations can commence..
Is that scepticism of all post's Bob? Would you apply the same amount of scepticism to a post from Keithoz?
Older and ... Wiser? Either you are too lazy to dyor, even to the extent of reading the reports of the present evening on this sight within the last few days. Or you are simply trolling and spreading FUD. By this stage those are the only probabilities.
Yes PG talked about the licence. No we are not facing the prospect of someone else coming along and taking it. Yes, we have already qualified for the next stage - as has been included in previous RNS's. No we don't absolutely need the extensions, but they are convenient including to allow the greater flexibility in working without yet more externally enforced downtime.
Time to find a new angle.
Older and wiser:
I'm afraid PG runs a very small ship, rather more like a boat actually, undermanned and undermanaged, and very vulnerable to the choppy seas and pirates lurking out there. That's my biggest worry about PRD.
The current share price is perhaps a reflection that the Market believes this as well..
GRH
And here endeth the first lesson.......to the good guys......or idiots?
My observation, from the outside, of PG's managerial style is of someone who is bombastic and like quite a few other PIs on here, wanting to say things to please the crowd, without fact or confirmation.
EG, the 7TCF number. Not in the ITR. Jimmy's post nails it.
Like the throwaway remark about selling up to PE. Er, what? Where did that one come from?
Like the "sell up by the end of Summer 2023" Roast chat throwaway comment. Why say it if you haven't got any reasonable chance of securing a good deal.
I'm afraid PG runs a very small ship, rather more like a boat actually, undermanned and undermanaged, and very vulnerable to the choppy seas and pirates lurking out there. That's my biggest worry about PRD.
Last question, whilst PG was referring to a 7Tcf prize, did he actually state that an amended drilling licence has been procured yet? Seems much more important in the sequence of matters here. No point in projections if someone else can claim the prize one day.
BRV
You have hit upon an incredibly important point regarding stub equity...
IE equity interest going forward
A friend and colleague was personally responsible for discovering another gas field...many years ago
He owned significant % equity...
Large amounts were at stake ...of course
He employed the best advisors
and he personally had over 40 years experience in the sector...
He makes real money out of it to this day...
but his equity stake is now diminished...
His choice of partner going forward having been THE key determinant in such diminution
So...
'Choose your partners wisely'
Same applies when investing...
Choose with infinite care...
As the latest, shiny looking thing is often a mirage...
Shirts can be lost
That applies massively to this sector ...as many will attest...
I warned against several outfits and geologies...
some folk paid attention...but several did not..
That's up to them...or rather down to them ...
'I am not my brother's keeper'
I have applied levels of care and analyses that are only understood by few
I am over the moon with my investment...
I cannot even begin to tell you how pleased it makes me...
I am now old...and it's my swansong investment
Yes, it's the money... of course it is
But it's also the sheer pleasure of seeing detailed analyses ...in multiple facets ...pan out...
BIG time
Methodology was most generous in his magnum opus, 'The Sleeping Giant '
Delays...
sure
Confusions...
of course
Idiots on bulletin boards...
they come and they go
but they remain idiots
But all these things don't amount to a can of beans at the end of the day
Whilst I have been fortunate so far...
I continue to emphasise that other folk should buy or sell as THEY see fit
After doing thorough and diligent PERSONAL research...
I wish the 'good guys' well ...
ATVB
G2
According to a 19th century legend, the Truth and the Lie meet one day. The Lie says to the Truth: "It's a marvellous day today"! The Truth looks up to the skies and sighs, for the day was really beautiful. They spend a lot of time together, ultimately arriving beside a well. The Lie tells the Truth: "The water is very nice, let's take a bath together!" The Truth, once again suspicious, tests the water and discovers that it indeed is very nice. They undress and start bathing. Suddenly, the Lie comes out of the water, puts on the clothes of the Truth and runs away. The furious Truth comes out of the well and runs everywhere to find the Lie and to get her clothes back. The World, seeing the Truth naked, turns its gaze away, with contempt and rage.
The poor Truth returns to the well and disappears forever, hiding therein, its shame. Since then, the Lie travels around the world, dressed as the Truth, satisfying the needs of society, because, the World, in any case, harbours no wish at all to meet the naked Truth.
We are now witnessing the most intensely coordinated attack on this share in my five years as a holder...
Read every post with great scepticism and always do your own research
Much love from British West Hartlepool on this glorious sunny Monday morning.
May your onions 🌰 always be big ones
Were those companies recommended that he had very large positions in ?
In it was a list of companys recomended in the past by grh, all his information has been shared on here in the past, for free,if someone takes the time to do this ,then it usually means they are a quality human being,willing to help normal people get a head in life. top bloke... alb.
Check out the reddit post, the link was put up yesterday,methodology penned it with joint credit going to grh,it shows what we are sitting on and the other gas/oil in the area and a comparisom to other finds and the huge cost of drilling and getting(deep sea find) the gas/oil to land, i think our cost was a mere 4% so far.
In addition, the last experts report assigned a 12% chance of success to the carbonates, even though gas was proven down dipin mou 4 . I think I must be missing something.
Blimin eck, so it seems Jimmy who is a well respected industry poster is saying experts only have a 12% chance of success for our Leviathan/Titanasaurus Rex prospect and there ain’t anywhere near 7 of the TCFs there even if it was successful .Everything is just so confusing.
Over to you Keith from Oz.
Did you say that about the monkey?
I recall be admonished quite a while ago for forming and voicing a negative opinion of Jimmy when he first showed up here. I of course apologised.
My instinctive feeling remains firm.
Love an stuff to all
Hartlefoolbob🦁🥦🌽🫚🧄🧅🍄🍄🍄
Bowled,
Thanks for confirming what I already knew (it is TCF by the way).
Pure speculation and conjecture.
No RNS as it is not a fact.
Glad that is sorted.
My other question that nobody answered (surprise, surprise!) was where is the evidence of large background accumulation that some posters on this forum have stated?
Anti venom ; on 7 BCF and why this is not in an RNS ?
An RNS has to be fact , whereas the 7BCF comment is what he feels we can secure , so PG can’t just put that in an RNS without data to confirm that figure .
With regard to the potential of the biogenic gas, do the calculation of gas generated from source rock, take account that a lot of gas has indeed filled the reservoirs but also that gas has seeped away, as evidenced from the gas cloud in the seismic to the east of mou 2.
There is definitely potential, but none of the experts reports, even in the most optimistic scenario of p10 outcomes come anywhere near 7 tcf.
Because there is no 3D seismic the area will require a lot drilling to prove up the higher gas volumes that are the subject of speculation on this board. So it’s very important to get into production cashflow asap and use the profits to drill out the area to prove up the higher gas volumes. I see that as a better use of funds than a new exploration project in west Africa.
The carbonate platform project is very interesting
I don’t understand why the p10 volumes of 637 bcf are based on 50 meters of reservoir when the carbonate section prognoised is 247 meters of which the bottom interesected 2 meters of which were high porosity and high gas saturation in mou 4 well, why is it not 247 meters of such high porosity carbonates?
In addition, the last experts report assigned a 12% chance of success to the carbonates, even though gas was proven down dipin mou 4 . I think I must be missing something.
Jimmy
From the presentation it says it was submitted on 23/01/24. I don't know why they didn't submit this a lot earlier as a contingency. The rns states mobilisation of sandjet is dependent on Amendment 4.
Has this now been granted?
The diagram in the presentation shows the new date for sandjet falling early Q2. Did Paul comment on this?
6th year of holding for me.
De 🛩️ de 🛩️. 🔔🔔🔔
Androcles,
Tbh, I’m as intrigued by that question as you are! (And it’ll be a nice situation to be in, of course.)
If I remember it correctly, GRH has said for some time (going back at least a few years) that he expected the stub equity / royalty payments to make up a significant % of the total shareholder returns and that he also expected to never have to sell a single share in PRD in order to realise these gains. So I think that, with Paul having now discussed on record the sheer scale of the assets in Morocco, it’s becoming much clearer how important any future payments from royalties etc will be.
And, of course, the promise of future payments from ongoing gas (and condensate / oil) sales should also be reflected via significant share price appreciation (DCFs), offering the option for shareholders to crystallise this value sooner via capital gains if they so wish.
As you say, by that time we’ll no longer be the operator which I think highlights the importance of selling to the best possible purchaser. And by ‘best’ I don’t just mean the company that pays the highest initial upfront payment, but that which will act as a responsible steward of the licence going forward so that we can all optimally benefit for many years (decades?) to come.
Not jumping the gun, of course, let’s wait for the flow test results first and go from there. However, if upcoming testing + drilling (MOU-5) goes as well as we all hope, then I’m very confident that Paul will negotiate the best possible deal for all shareholders (which, as we know, includes himself).
Woo..so maybe not $25 billion revenue ! … its all very confusing.
The middle east money guy was posting in mosman oil and gas few years ago and said they would go to a pound a share , instead they are at 0.1 of a penny today ! so I need to be sure before I back my truck up . I Started buying shares last week here. thanks to all the good posters.
Agree with ibiza Keith's calculations don't work out. 10 out of 10 for showing his workings and going of them I make it 700bcf.