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https://twitter.com/businessposthq/status/1556022309261119490?s=21&t=fGOm5E-NcM29lqGzhE5RYw
It’s coming home to roost!
“If anyone here is invested in E&P
or in the green sector
or is making energy decisions for governments
You really need to understand
the concept and maths
behind the simple sounding EROEI
(Energy Return on Energy Investment)
Without it...growth is all but impossible.” Further to GRH’s posting on Twitter there’s an interesting article in the ST by Matthew Syed on the very same subject. Apparently EROI for oil has fallen from 100 to 5 with renewables also not yet close to matching fossil fuels.
Morning
THE vital fact...
And please believe me when I shout that this is HUGE...
Not just re investors in PRD
but for the entire future of life as we have come to know it in recent centuries...
The Return on Investment from green fads is BELOW ONE!!!
IE put one unit of energy in
and get out less than one unit
WOW!
For many centuries, societal growth has depended upon returns of much more than one...
In the case of many hydrocarbons...it's about 30 plus
Of course Nuclear is way off the scale at over 100
How on earth do folk think the British Empire grew so powerful so quickly?
COAL enabled that growth!!
It was the sine qua non with a vengeance
Is PRD at the right place at the right time??
Ehhhh?
Does anyone really have to ask!
ATB
GRH
I know some of the usual crew will have a hysterical go at me for agreeing (as I often do) with GRH's insights.
The force multiplier effect of cheap energy is through the ceiling and GRH is very correct in his observations there. Newtonian physics (and I am simplifying a bit here) essentially holds that, in pure energy terms, you cannot get out more than you put in (in fact, there is significant attrition).
That may hold true for pure energy (there is some debate - very interesting - on whether dear old Newton, while pottering around the Great Court at Trinity, Cambridge, was exactly right), but it is very clear that at an economic level, the force-multiplier effect of cheap power (electricity) is massive.
One does not have to be anti the planet to understand that. In the absence of affordable or reliable power, the very feral instincts of humankind come quickly to the fore (that has been seen in South Africa over the last couple of years).
The political debate around energy and climate change has become totally deranged - from both sides.
Having power, literally (electricity) empowers the human species on a scale that makes us more effective than a turtle (crocodiles are actually different because they are very energy efficient, though they aren't the brightest bulbs in town).
Energy, sourced efficiently (cheaply) is the second greatest force multiplier on earth (water would come first).
In PRD, we are well positioned to benefit - I think MASSIVELY - from being right on the button as to investment themes. Energy, energy, energy.
And, Nigel, don't bother responding.
The biggest problem we have is population. That is the long term problem, if that were solved lots of other issue would be as well. We cannot sustain the growth. Decreasing it dramatically and quickly would then cause a whole heap of problems that would be unimaginable. Mankind is doomed unless this is sorted out over the next couple of decades. Cheery I know, but true
Can you agree with these Sefton
Ask yourself questions on
1. H2 green power
2. Hamilton Fox Holdings Ltd
3. Theseus and the other 50%
4. PG links to ARATO CLN
5. Failed CO2 project where PRD seems to have failed to deliver
6. SP Crash after Morocco drill up date
7. Director dumping shares days before placing
8. PG selling Shares under H2 green power on a day of a update
9. If no JV, Then you have to ask why after all these companies will have done due diligence and they will have seen a lot more than anyone on here.
10. Ireland and who will really benefit .
11. Ramper's who run this chat, Even on a sunday
The list goes on
One question for you , What has PRD achieved since IPO apart from multiple placings
https://twitter.com/businessposthq/status/1556022309261119490?s=21&t=fGOm5E-NcM29lqGzhE5RYw
That's just wishful thinking like everything else PRD seems to have anything to do with.
The more i read about PRD and the CEO, The more alarm bells i hear.
Surely alarm bells is your cue to Foxtrot Oscar?
Tom,
I hold a decent position in PRD (some 3m shares directly and quite a few more that might be consider aligned to me).
So, put simply, I do not agree with the positions you have stated below (or I would have sold - i have held and, aside from a temporary portfolio re-balancing exercise a few months back. have been both a holder and a net buyer.
That I be a committed and enthusiastic shareholder notwithstanding, I think your questions 1 through 10 are worthy of assessment. and due consideration (certainly they are more coherently put together than the flatulence put about by your little friends, Nigel and Redbox).
My views on the answers to your questions remain to the positive but there is nothing whatever wrong in the questions being asked.
I cannot myself answer them - I am not in the company and have no access to special information. But I can take - and have taken - an investment view based on what I think the answers likely to be.
I would hardly be holding hard and quite big if I was much concerned about the concerns raised (though I reiterate that it is right to raise them).
As regards your cheap point-scoring on your point 11, I think that a little sad and even silly.
There are some strong views on this BB, mainly to the positive and usually based on quite some insight/experience/research. That those views be, in the main, positive does not make them, ipso facto, rampers.
I think some of your questions are not entirely without merit or value from a stress-testing perspective and I think the PRD IR advisors should have properly prepared answers to same.
However, I think most, maybe all, of the stuff you float is red herring stuff.
It maybe that you are right.
I do not think so and have voted with my wallet.
I expect PRD to berth big. Very big.
MickTrick,
You put it so much more eloquently and succinctly than me.
Spot on.
GLA!
Redbox,
I do tend to read this BB pretty much daily because I find it both interesting and valuable.
The same is not true of other stocks I hold (the PANR BB has some excellent exceptions but is largely a waste of time and is rather like watching paint dry dry).
This BB has some really interesting stuff (there is some garbage, too, of course - but on this BB, relatively little - and that is not an invitation to post more yourself).
So, if I read it daily and post from time to time, it is because I find it of value (the reading thereof, not necessarily my posts - that is for others to opine on).
Redbox,
Because of the LSE system that takes out your foul language, it is not exactly clear to me what you were trying to say.
If the word you were trying to you (and which got censored) was along the lines that I might be scared about my holding in PRD and thus needing frequent trips to the loo, you could not be more wrong.
I am very confident in my holding in this stock. I have been in PRD for over 2 years and, aside from a slight and small liquidity re-balancing exercise a few months ago, have always held firm (and, since then, I have again been a buyer and my position now is bigger than it was before that very small sell-down).
The SP will do what it will do. I was always here for the VALUE arbitrage which I have always believed to be massive.
So, rather than whatever S** wording you used to get censored, I can safely say I am SMILING when I look at my PRD position.
Redbox..
I did not "get offended" by your implying that I (and others, whom I compliment from time to time) were just '"rampers". I simply pointed out that I did not think that to be the case and that simply expressing a view to the positive did not make one, ipso facto, a "ramper".
I did think that MickTrick was correct and elegant in his view that you should consider following down the path of Foxtrot Oscar. I only wished I had been able to put it as well he did.
And, contrary to your assertion that I have no idea of what I am doing and that I am simply following blindly the counsel of the "rampers" supposedly on here, I have always been perfectly clear that, whilst I find the inputs of quite a few posters on here (not you) to be valuable and insightful, any investment decisions I make are solely my own decision.
Should those investment decisions go wrong (and I pretty confident that in the case of PRD is very unlikely), I would have no-one whatever to blame but myself.
I knew the potential upside, I knew the potential risks and I felt the relationship between the two to be attractive. My investment record over nearly 3 decades has been very good indeed. And, as far as I know, no of the supposed "rampers" on here were invested in any of those companies over the years.
Quite why you get so worked up over PRD is a bit of a mystery to me. You have doubts about the company and its prospects - which is fine.
But surely then just sell down your position and move on, instead of going on semi-hysterical diatribes on this BB about how bad things are?
Just a question, little boy...
Redbox,
You seem very certain that II have no idea what I am doing and am in way over my head here.
Interesting that you should make that assertion in the total absence of knowing who I am and my background and experience.
Some on this BB do know who I am and my background and experience. Background and experience (and maybe a little bit of skill occasionally) that would suggest that some very large global companies do not think I am a complete idiot just learning how to swim.