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"Kenj / KRSS - is the consensus that Pavel actually has some skin in the game these days ?"
RetiredBanker,
I will be very surprised if anyone can answer that question. None of the directors has a notifiable holding in POG, but is Pavel connected to any of the ever changing list of major shareholders? Who knows!
Understood RB - the RI certainly feels like a long time ago now. To be fair although it's been agonising a lot of progress has been made since then and we're well positioned to benefit from the GP which seems to be on the up again. They have to get at that debt now and of course the general Russian discount will always be something of a drag but I don't see why those broker targets can't be hit, you might be exiting sooner than you think!
Shedulike - I'm mostly invested because I had to increase my holding by a factor of 7.5x to avoid being wiped out in 2015 RI.
Since then this has proved a solid investment and I still feel it is. I'm bearish on a lot of sectors and the outlook for stocks in general, hence holding gold - however a few years ago I was forced to sell a portfolio of bonds I had built up that were generating a very satisfactory 7-8% income stream. Since then I've been trying to work out where I can get a solid 5-10% annual return with minimal downside risk .... POG still fits the bill if it keeps rising 1p per year.
Kenj / KRSS - is the consensus that Pavel actually has some skin in the game these days ? With all his comings and goings via Cypriot shell companies and loans with options attached I lost track whether he actually has a material stake.
Certainly I'll be selling down (possibly out altogether) if we hit 20p
"Vladislav Sviblov's Fortiana Holdings acquires 4.6% stake in Petropavlovsk", so that's why we bucked the downtrend today. I doubt Vladislav Sviblov is in for RB's 12p this time next year! Not being personal RB, I enjoy your bearish views here - good to have some balance.
See I will telling everyone buy buy , even tipped on other boards, mainly on fundamentals
I would double-check that with your psychiatrist to be honest Lawrence :) Talking of which trust POG to make a mug of me, I see we finally broke the pattern of getting hammered into the close. Does that mean anything, heaven knows.
I'm holding out for 40p but I need to check with my GP first
"Will Pavel sell at 20p?"
If he won't, I certainly will!
Polygon, Polyus, Polymetal, hmmm Poly is Common here. Polymetal and Polyus are sitting at large sum of cash. POX is big attraction, it makes POG a cheap T/O target. Will Pavel sell at 20p
Thanks for your analysis RB though I'm always left scratching my head as to why you are invested in POG. Short term the price doesn't seem to be going anywhere I agree. Doesn't help when we consistently get hammered down at the end of trading every day, do you have an opinion on whether this is down to Polygon?
PVX .... perhaps I should have added 12p "seems possible" ... I'm certainly not bullish yet.
I've done my more detailed analysis and see various things to be cautious about. Without even looking at the IRC millstone.
Not least, now that they've finished building the POX Hub they can no longer capitalise interest expense ... so that cost is going to increase from $25mm to around $50mm p.a for the next few years which is straight off bottom line Net Profit.
A big unknown is how much 3rd party ore can we process ... 13kt = 8k oz of gold in Q3 is very nice but does that equate to around 40k oz for FY 2020 or are we going to see double / treble that level ... that is going to make a major difference.
Conversely does Malomir production stick around 40k oz p.q or does switch to refractory mean this will grow. Similarly Pioneer, does that stay around 30k oz p.q or is that declining ... and most importantly how rapidly does Albyn decline vs Elginskoye ramp up - are we going to see a smooth continuation of around 40k oz p.q or not ?
All told I'm going to guess we stick around 500k oz in total next year - so @$1500 p.oz we generate Revenue of $750mm. EBITDA runs around 30% so that figure should be around $225m deduct Interest $50m ; Depreciation $100m ; Tax $40 and our Net Profit is quite small without some monkeying around with "other accounting gains / losses".... but clearly another 50k oz of production from whatever source is going to add $20mm to Net Profit and suddenly things look a lot better.
I think BoD have decided not to be gung-ho anymore so downside is probably quite limited - however so much depends on growth and some of those suggesting 50% increase seem fanciful to me right now. If we make it to 11p soon I'll probably trim my holding a bit more and switch into another miner (or housebuilder) that I believe has better short term prospects.
FYI British - i am genuinely "retired" - however Cost of Living in small town Florida is significantly higher than I projected and earning consistent returns on my SIPP much harder of late, so I might have to go back to work.
For those Brits on this BB - I have to say that the standard of living in US is staggeringly higher than across Europe.
Unless things have changed significantly in Blighty these past few years - I remember a 50k GBP salary which puts you into higher rate tax bracket represented about top 20% of working population ... a similar USD Eq salary here and you would barely make 50th percentile !!! ... and the BS that America is a cut-throat working environment is just plain wrong - the benefits of working for the government in US greatly exceed anything that Public Sector employees in the UK derive .... of course you're much more likely to get shot !
As you say everything pointing in the right direction. I know SPs and markets dont always make sense or align with news but I expected 11-12p range by now. Iam a patient investor so another 6 months or 1 year, 2 year whatever...as long as it stays on track and GP doesnt fall back significantly! Hold for gold lol
Polyus the largest Russian Gold producer 2.8m ounces also sells concentrate, can be assumed Polyus doesn’t has facility like POX hub. POG has placed itself in a very good position
Your becoming positive means this stock may be back in action from retirement soon. In between are u really retired RB?
Reduced Capex, Gold Price, increased production and possibly lower costs also going to contribute to gigantic free cash flow, Canacord Genuity raising target is gr8 development
Retired Banker almost bullish?? Perhaps it's catching, Cannacord Genuity had us at 16p yesterday, today raised to 19p on improved GP forecasts. At this rate we'll be £1 by Christmas :)
Retiredbanker,
You seem to be changing your tune. You've said time and again that the share price will be capped at 10.6 due to the convertibles. And that we will be lucky to get 10% from here. Now you're saying an easy 12p within 12 months and limited downside.
Everything is 'screaming' rise to the SP yet as I type its in the red after falling yesterday. All the great news and gold clawing its way back into the $1490's again and yet its as if POG exists in a different universe. I'm now beginning to believe that even retired banker is over optimistic , imagine that ;-)
IRC improving and paying its debt easily. If POG achieves lower end of Gold production, IMO they will have around $100-$140m free cash flow.
I'm a lth...went through the RI few years back. After the further positive update and increased share transactions I am a bit disappointed that the SP is below 10p. It should really be way north of here given the massive change from where we were. Much improved credit ratings too. I guess I am going to have to wait a bit longer...I just hope this all comes to much improved return for shareholders and its not pie in the sky and skullduggery. One day....
Polymetal,Not sure but looks like produces around one million ounces of Gold, debt around 1.7 billion, plus they have other operations as well , but mainly Gold and valuation is very high. IMO GP is helping POG a lot. Canacord Genuity sees “own mine” production readily achievable 450-500koz, plus third party concentrate.
Yes Krss and those stats are extremely generous. Plus you have the rate of growth here .. more than 50% pa. Quite an insane valuation but that's the market for you...
Mathematics? Revenue 600m AISC 1030, Capex 50m, production 450Koz, EBIDTA to debt already seems 2x,
On first glance at the RNS this looks positive, but I will need to study more carefully to try to find what PM & Co are hiding (sad I think that way about our CEO / BoD but that is their track record )
Superficially our share price has risen from 8.5p when 2018 results announced in April to 10p (ish) now which is only consistent with either the increase in gold price ($1250 -> $1500) or production increase )422k oz -> C480k oz) but not both.
So it seems there is still a lot of doubt in the market surrounding POG.
I don't share Tamesis optimism for a 16p target but certainly 12p within 12mths - so 20-25% upside and very limited downside means I'm content to hold at this time .... unless I find some inconsistencies when I analyse result in more detail later
All good, steady as you go etc.... Tamesis maintain their 16p target "With confidence". I thought they might have upped it but they think we need to be getting 100% of our own concentrate through POX before it will be fully exploited. I know I obsess a bit about it but could this update be enough to finally shake off Polygon?