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Same here, out but still watching.
Very rarely i feel i bought/sold at just the right time but sold both half's of my Pnn @ 1,162.50p the other day.
Since then the SP has dropped, & quite a bit.
Will, like others, be waiting for the consolidation to settle and then will maybe look to buy back.
Perhaps before XD on 22 July.
Hahaha! I may be 'out' but I don't stop watching; I'm still committed, just trying to make the best of a situation.
I hope we aren't going to be killed in the rush to return. I agree the window of opportunity is post consolidation on 5th but prior to payment of the special dividend on 17th when PNN indicated would be the start of its buy back process. This will be an interesting time.
At this rate there will be no one left here or we will all be lurking in the background waiting for a fall that won't come cos we are now the crowd we wanted to avoid in the first place.
Does this mean it not worth coming back here until the 17th July or will we comment on what might have been or what's we have missed daily
There's been a bit of a dip today, probably on the back of Goldman Sachs increasing their target, but only to 1084!
My stop loss got me out before the end of day tumble. Now it's time to sit on my hands, as well as the proceeds from the sale, and see what happens post consolidation! See you again then abw. Good luck all.
Sold my remainder late yesterday afternoon and, like others, will hope to get back in once all the uncertainty is over
Good luck all
Gerry, I thoroughly agree. Greedily chasing a high or low is unnecessarily risky. It's better just to pick the level at which you're comfortable and live with the decision. I am still in but will make my move accordingly. Selling threes higher buys you more twos when it's lower if you can work that little piece of magic well! I've been in here a long long time so should realise those gains in any case. I'm convinced by the company so look to be reinvesting on the other side of this shenanigans.
Just been looking for my previous post when I thought that 631 was too expensive and didn't buy. Twas a while ago and didn't find it in 30 sec that I could be bothered.
Maybe one day 1163 will look cheap
Old, you don't have to hit the highs and lows. As long as there is a differential, oh and some divis help.
You only get 2 for 3 no matter how high the price goes which is why I thought it would anchor around the 1086.5 price. That's not to say carpet baggers won't dive in thinking they are getting a massive divi windfall now instead of just being forced sellers of their own shares at 1086.5p. Just wait for the comments on how is was all a scam etc.
Still time to ride the baggers wave if your better at not being greedy. For me, my remaining shares were already flashing sell as there were over 12 years dividends in the price and my running yield was getting lower and lower.
Hopefully it will turn back into a steady boring utility share again with a decent yield.
Just got all that useless cash to deal with now.
Well, sold half my position & took a 20.5% return over a few months.
Got 1,162.22p...it's more than i would have accepted a week back, so happy
Remaining half may go this afternoon. Boris could confirm an opening delay, which might depress the general market in morning.
Already thinking i should have sold all.......so indecisive at moment
GL everyone
......
Ah, the perennial conundrum; where's the top to sell, where's the bottom to buy? If only...!
Good luck everyone.
Gerry,
finger on the sell button here too.
But holding off & watching. Think there may be a bit more in it yet.
Drops 5p then am out, but will probably hold as long as it keeps rising. £12, definatly out.......
14 more trading days until XD
Well that is the lot sold up now. So hoping for a fall. Not really happy about buying back at these prices. Whilst its been a nice steady share and I would be happy to hold again. The yield is quite low for a utility, even taking into account, the expensive Bristol purchase, the expected rise in next years divi.
Like many I suppose, will keep an eye out for any dips. No plans currently to spend the cash unless one of the green power provides does a placing or takes a dip.
To be clear Dusty, im not a fan of buybacks at all, my comments not meant as such. However, if any business is going to buy so many back consistantly and states as much it will put a floor under the sp, and lead, as the buybacks progress, to a (theoretical) rise in SP. Thats why its done.
Personally, i think its a stupid thing to do when prices are so high. Specifically i dont like the thought that i as a private investor dont get the choice where the company choses to spend the profits made on my investment monies, i would maybe prefer to spend the cash released as additional divis elsewhere, for example.
the buy back is only ever any good if the share price is cheap. Would you be happy if they spent all that money buying fivers at a tenner a go!
Normally they mandate someone to buy for them within set parameters. So how many shares depends on the way the share price moves.
Hopefully they will announce loads of bad news, Bristol integration going poorly, fights with regulators etc to knock the share price. If only that were legal.
Thanks for the thoughts. I've done some more digging and found a document on the Pennon website which declares they think they are buying back up to 14.99% of the shares! I still dislike the up to; it sounds like the window displays in shops with a sale on. Up to 75% off can mean next to nothing! However I've decided my plan of action. Assuming the price does remain constant before and after the consolidation I worked out how many shares I'd have if I sell out before and buy back after compared with how many I have after consolidation if I stay in plus extra bought from the divi. Easy really. And either way if there were to be a dip afterwards to buy into it would be even better.
I'm not so sure on the logic that the potential buyback drives the share price as suggested. This is not bumper earnings from this year, but rather money they have been sitting on from the sale of the waste business. It's already in the share price. If they spend £400m buying back their own shares, the question is - is that the best use of the money? If the shares are cheap, then maybe it is. If the shares are expensive.. then it's probably not a good use of money. Yes there will be fewer shares in circulation, but the company will also have £400m less sitting behind the remaining shares.
thing is, if they do repurchase any decent amount it will (theoretically) drive the price up, so the first batch will be cheaper than the latter ones, so reducing the amount bought overall.
I dont have millions of these, around 500, but planning to see prior to special divi - held outside of isa and dont want to lose cash due to tax.
Absolutely my last words on the subject:
Shares now 422,120,000 so after consolidation 281,413,333.
£400,000,000 buys 37,435,657 shares at £10.685 a go.
That's 13.3% of the available shares so shares should rise to £12.10.
Is that better? What a dimwit! Time to go shopping, I can just about cope with that! :-)
Second try:
Shares in issue now 422,120,000,000 so after consolidation 281,413,333,333.
£400,000,000 at £10.685 a go would buy 37,435,657 shares which now doesn't look all that significant.
My thanks still apply, but I'll shut up and get back in my box!
I think my maths is awful so ignore all that!
Great discussion on dividends. You've certainly given me food for thought so huge thanks guys.
I've just done some thinking about the buyback programme with UP TO (my emphasis) £0.4Bn to spend in the market and 422.12Bn shares currently in issue ie 422,120,000 shares. After the 2 for 3 consolidation there will therefore be 281,413,333 shares in issue.
At the notional share price of £10.685 that means the buy back is targeting up to 9.25% of the shares. The buy back will drive an equivalent price increase which should therefore take the share price up to about £11.97 if it all comes about in this way.
This I would suggest needs to be part of anyone's thinking though there are a lot of variables.
How much will they actually spend? How long will it take? Where will the price go anyway with the new company structure following the acquisition of Bristol Water?
Perhaps most significantly, did I get the numbers right?
You are safe 1149.5p, loads of wiggle room.
I'm in a watch and wait mode and likely to react to whatever happens.
Hoping the SP falls afterwards but worried it might rise too much this side of the deal and remain elevated on the coat tails.
The later divi might hold it higher too and then a buy back kicking it.
Might need a market correction to help here
Crikey! 1,144 already. I expected a rally on the run up to Special XD day, but this is already pushing my 1,150 sell plan.
With 15 more trading days to go before Sp XD i think i will raise that target to 1,160 (or above)
With a 5p trailing stop as a sell point.
What are other holders plans?
For me I decided the best way forward was to sell around half prior to the div/consolidation and take the payment/reduction on the rest. They are in isa with dividends automatically reinvested.. the fee is only a flat £1 I think. Then if any weakness down the road I will look to re-buy those sold.
And yes for anyone holding here for a while, this is all a bit of a non event. The good performance / sale of the waste business was already in the share price.. this is just an administrative event.
That sound a similar strategy to mine Reader. Too many variables as to where the SP will be taken. Whereas if i get anywhere near 1,150 that's a certain profit if i cash in. Then i feel i will have some control & not be a 'passenger' to the SP movement.
Mine are within an ISA, so free of CGT too
1,113 just now, so hopefully will rise as people pile in for the Sp Divi
Good luck to all, whatever they decide