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movements on PMO last couple days - was holding up so well and against pressure and totally against the manner in which it normally reacts. Difficult to read how the results going to be -
I've just noticed Tullow currently down 15% this morning based on their results. Not sure if PMO will be rec'd similarly?
Tulle getting canes as they lower full year production forecasts yet again, due to ongoing problems in Ghana and also having to lower fcf by 50m....from MOL results , we know Catcher is running fine, (slightly lower than previous quarter due to summer maintenance) , and full year production number for PMO already included this. Possibly slightly lower cash generation due to lower oil price in the quarter as per the majors. But hedging was robust. Debt number as always and hints of Zama price still the key
Yep Tullow getting hammered -
Cut their production outlook and some issues in Ghana. Just shows how sensative these smaller companies can be - TD is gonna turn PMO the same way. Be interesting day for tomorrow - glad i am out
TLW now down 21% !!!! Wow - worst trading day ever i believe for TLW
Lesson there I guess Ferret, underpromise & over deliver, I’m sure big Tone, doesn’t need to be told that one. On a production level IMO all well with PMO (famous last words), just depends on how market reads sale timings etc & hope crude doesn’t tank or there is a Trump tantrum in the meantime.
Guess tlw is not helping as we're often compared however incorrectly as that is.
Actually TLW is starting to look cheap :)
Agreed on tlw, only lowered fcf by 50m. Just bought 3 tranches
Tullow looking cheap !! WTF !! They are war over priced even after this mornings correction.
No thanks
Each to their own Kraken
Plainly Tullow is pulling down PMO
Christ! I sold tlw monday....
TLW looking cheap? wait until one African op goes tits up and you'll be able to get them for less than ENQ.
Good sell Dodger - time to buy back maybe ?
Cash, i bought here. At 82.5
Speaking to people pretty familiar with the subject this morning, I don’t think Tullow are heading in the right direction to turn the ship around. Investors should have taken more heed of partners who advised considerably lower production from Ghana this year who are much better respected in the industry. Hope for you guys buying in this morning that it bounces, but I personally still think it’s several hundred million overvalued.
Let’s hope PMO’s update tomorrow is the opposite of Tullow’s today!
TLW dividend was very premature, just a bit of fuel for the gravy train which is now looking like its approaching the terminus. Irish and Africa a barge pole ain't long enough.
heardy - just had a quick read on tlw - I see there are posters on their board saying pmo may do same tomorrow.
They must think pmo has production issues and operates in high risk areas of the globe also.
I do wonder what oil would be now if Donald sorted his trade war. Happy to hold here though, unlike tlw there is the chance of one-off good news landing any day. Would rather risk a 10% drop on a trading update than be out now. I went in big this morning.
Yes D16 a few on TLW would like a lower entry point back into here after that hit so are spouting excrement.
Good buy - i was hoping to poke my nose back in if it dipped below 80 - may have missed it but lets see when US opens
I can recommend a good home for the GS and MS shorting society that will be far more lucrative than PMO.
I won't buy TLW, you go chasing s h i t and you will find yourself covered in it at some point.
If Tullow producing 87k barrels a day and PMO forecast 75k to 80k both similar debt (slightly different assets, personally prefer N.Sea) , PMO looks very undervalued at 84p versus 157p still. (or Tullow still overvalued)
Zama should produce $200m to $500m (analysts say around $400m) on the sale to come off the debt, so should mean a good few pence (min 20p- 30p would have thought) added on SP, as market cap now only 698 million.
Is there anyone else here can work out more accurately what say $400m debt off would add onto SP ?
TR - PMO debt is $800m less than TLW now - and as you say PMO has chance to get a decent drop with Zama.
Its a complete guess what it does to the SP. We lose an asset - so you have to hope the market never priced in any future returns. The most important thing to me is the health check - investors don't like too high a multiple on EBITDA to debt. PMO was over 3. We could be heading to less than 2.
Dodger, agree, these large drops i.e. Tullow , can quickly recover the same day or next, but also they can continue for weeks, so I try and take the risk out by losing the opportunity of any gains but at same time don't get drawn into following a drop down and being locked in with losses for a long time. I am sure it will bounce, (153.70 - 25.45% as i write but then again, no guarantee !
PMO have got this Zama sale, which is sure to add good value to SP and de-risk PMO, which will be only way of getting shorters off the back. As long as TD does not go spending again, should see good increases over 6 months and to end of 2020.