Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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A buy but at less than opening price
I’m still in hanging by a thread - SL of 130 I might raise to 135 to pocket £50 but maybe that’s being churlish
Theborn
Thanks I agree
Shares have bounced off low for day and I noted more buy than sells so will look for uncrossing trade to explain it
Also TU nothing but upbeat but devoid of quantitative content
Think perception is even middle class people will default on loans as mortgages spiral out of control
Some famous investor said something like
I bought shares for 10 which later decreased to 2 and I sold them for 30 finally...
Look e.g. on the oil producer CPG ->
Before COVID the share price was e.g. 10, then
last year you could have bought it for less than 1 dollar
now it is being sold for 7.5 (and there was already peak at 12 this year...
Sometimes it can go quickly...
e.g. I remember the day several years ago, when PFG rose more than 50% in a day
Fore sure, what ever can happen...
I'm really unsure why this is continuing to plummet.
Every day there are far more buys then sells (including today).
With more buyers the price should be rolling up - unless their is a huge sell waiting to be filled in the background.
I've even re-read the TU twice today. It's only 5 days old and there is nothing in there except reassurances and positives. Nothing to warrant a free fall from an already undervalued stock. It doesn't compute.
Barclays still reiterating as overweight.
There is a point where takeover offer has to come along.
Petr
Good luck
I’d like to hold but I’m just worried I’ve missed something and as has been reported the management are intent on covering their arses by not committing to a quantitative forecast of the end of year outcome which I’m guessing is being viewed with suspicion
Theborn
I’m gutted as no way did I want to give in and crystallise a huge loss on a small position but I broke the golden rule of not sticking to my stop loss which I think I set as 160-170p ahead of the results and we’re 40p down on that in no time and I’ve been too caught up watching the circus that is the Tory government to pay attention to what’s happening to my own money which is pretty daft
My revised SL is 130 and I may see that as soon as today
Those people who bought 200,000 at 158 are already £50K out of the money if they weren’t covering a short which it now looks likely they were as nothing would suggest it was the right thing to do beyond fundamentals which frankly I should know by now is the last thing the market pays any attention to - hope you and the other regular posters on this board are doing well enough elsewhere to cope with the disappointment you must be feeling
Painful view, curious, where the bottom will be... without any major catalyst, difficult to see other direction...
I will keep holding...
Sorry
I’m going to have to cut my position as can’t risk losing all my investment
Good luck all I’ll continue to hold but reduce again if shares breach 120
As I said I’ve no opinion but enough is enough
Someone out there is determined to decamp shares or there’s a sale building up to supply a buy order or someone is taking advantage of management failure to communicate and I’m worried their ambiguity might be hiding bad news in full year earnings as yield now well into double figure percentages
I think there’s unfortunately the possibility of a problem with accounts - I’ve no proof but something is wrong when s share keeps falling for no good reason and there’s no such thing as leak proof share info - sadly been here before
Oh my....
Going into the 120s. Never, ever thought I'd see the day.
Can a white knight please gallop in and put this management team out of there misery.
This piece of **** is going to £nil at this rate.
Down 5% again today vs Financials sector up >3%.
I can't understand how this can go any lower.
Management out. Now.
Theborn/ bigpunt
One thing is sure - PFG won’t be using their shares as consideration for a takeover as they’re an almost potentially almost worthless alternative to cash as far as a vendor is concerned
I thought same thing bigpunt. It's below half the comp you'd expect for someone in that role.
Perhaps MLM and CFO are hands on so this is more of a project coordinator.
I have a contact who has spoken with PFG and apparently PRA decision expected soon and CMD will be announced following that PRA approval (assuming it's an approval). CMD will provide opportunity to set out longer term targets. Will believe when I see it but I'd say the CMD needs scheduling urgently regardless of PRA approvals. Market needs to hear first hand.
My reading of H1 update is provisioning is already v robust. Shore Cap also support this view (and they are broker with access to PFG). Share price fell on that random broker saying they think 15% of debts could be written off next year.... But I think PFG could already be holding provisions beyond this number so serious downside was already factored in.
Still, be ironic that PFG are planning on takeovers but due to their own lack of transparency and communication they could find themselves on other end of takeover bid. They'd deserve it.
Well done Theborn, good spot
A very odd role
The job requires what looks like a chartered accountant with an MBA
But the pay is a for a chartered accountant with around 3 years post-qualified experience
About the Role
Recognising PFG’s ambition, this is an opportunity to be at the forefront of developing and delivering the M&A strategy for PFG, identifying opportunities to accelerate the growth of PFG. This role is a great blend of strategy and execution, facilitating and delivering M&A transactions from ideation right the way through to successful implementation and value creation.
Hybrid working is available in this role. We ask that you attend the office 1-2 days per week.
This role could be based in either Bradford or London.
Key Responsibilities
Provide specialist support in the development and maintenance of the M&A landscape enabling potential opportunities for inorganic growth to be identified, prioritised and developed into an M&A deals pipeline reported and progressed with the PFG Group CEO, CFO and Chief Transformation & Strategy Officer.
Support the assessment of potential opportunities including the leading the indicative valuation of M&A targets, identification of potential commercial and cost synergies as well as evaluation of potential opportunities against pre-agreed strategic assessment criteria.
Provide specialist support for any M&A opportunities to be progressed including leading the co-ordination of the due diligence process, advisor selection, engagement and management, day to day planning and delivery of target management engagement.
Provide support in the development and lead co-ordination of engagement with sell-side management, ensuring progress of PFG evaluation of opportunities and due diligence achieves sell-side process requirements and commitments.
Lead the production of due-diligence materials and reports to support clear, timely and effective decision making in line with PFG governance requirements.
Support the development of the strategic rationale and business case for the acquisition and how it fits with the current PFG product set and enables strategic acceleration.
Lead the identification and development of synergies including future operating model options and cost baselining.
Develop offer materials from initial approach/expressions of interest through to non-binding and binding offer letters and subsequent purchase agreements.
Provide integration planning support for acquisitions successfully secured.
Searching for any crumb of inspiration at the end of another hideous week in the life of a PFG Investor I found the following:
https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=b5cdf5fb68069e08&from=serp
The opportunities they keep referring to might well be acquiring other lenders who are less well funded than themselves.
We live in hope.
Comments are still relevant aren't they.
Although that wasn't a true takeover bid, it was a coup d'etat structured by Woodford to try to save two of his plummeting investments. Despite comments on current management, CEO of NSF is the last person on the planet I'd want running a business (which has shown by the fact they've essentially gone bust in the time since PFG defended against that takeover).
Woodford was forced to sell out of this at c.£5 per share. In a similar resurrection to BoJo, it might even be him who comes along again with his new fund and sees value in this piece of d0gshyt as it plunges towards £1.
Feels like a capitulation
Where is the bottom ?
£1 ?
You can be sure there’ll be deafening silence from the BOD as …. they simply don’t care
Drat that has come and gonr
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PFG/offer-for-provident-financial-plc-ek046tdqc31tnko.html
Interesting comments at the time ...
The NSF Board believes that today's announcement by Provident:
· shows, once again, that the Provident Board is determined to deflect from its history of self-inflicted wounds and incompetence - its defective leadership, customer failings, destruction of shareholder value, erosion of shareholder trust and strategic vacuum;
· reveals an extraordinary disregard for some of its largest shareholders, experienced investors who, having seen the Provident and NSF teams first-hand, have chosen the NSF proposition and accepted our offer;
· evidences an absurd and misplaced pride in its failings - including congratulating itself for a year in which it had to be rescued by a rights issue and which was shortly followed by a profits warning, the third overseen by Malcolm Le May in his time at Provident;
Petr_ I would say takeover still needs the support of the existing shareholders (mainly IIs) to agree on a price. Reason now is a good time for a takeover is £3 would have felt cheap 3 months ago, but if someone offered £3 a share now its 110% increase on current value meaning IIs might accept.
If management were in possession of any material information that affected the share price it would be incumbent on them to disclose it sooner rather than later.
This does not rule out ineptitude and the possibility that they are 'not on top of things' - an opinion of MLM I have expressed before.
Barrieprov I feel your frustration but like you i’am personally into heavy losses with this one .. but if there’s any words of shared comfort amongst all I personally think it’s simply down to market sentiment which can be brutal, and let’s be honest here nobody knows the real extent of this latest financial crisis.
I’m reminded of frog in hot water analogy
I must confess I’d not realised just how quickly and how far this share has fallen in value
I’ve been here before defending shares on fundamentals and catching a falling knife only to see the company ending up as a penny share and management shrugging their shoulders and am left wondering if this company is too insignificant to catch a bid from PE and will simply be taken private by its management at a very low price, be traded and come back to the market and I’m not sure whether that just ends with a tender offer for the shares at some extraordinary discount to NAV that loses people like me 75% of their investment?
I think there’s an assumption that PFG are going to deliver some sort of shock in their year end announcement
It’s an extremely risky hold now having dropped significantly in days albeit there were significant buys at 158 not long ago I’m wondering if they were closing short positions
I think at some point I might need to consider cutting at say 130 as otherwise the thought of a total loss on a £10K position is frankly too unpalatable to bear
Everyone has their own view on this share and tolerance to risk but the decline is savage even allowing for increased borrowing costs and perhaps the real issue is how many applicants for credit have mortgages they might well be unable to service. I hope I’m wrong and as always DYOR but very recently these shares were trading 30p higher
@Theborn: thank you, my question was rather, if in case of the hostile offer, the share holder is forced to sell his share in the company, or if the shares are somehow converted and is a chance that they would increase their value in future?
Meaning whether the strategy "keep holding at any cost" make sence in such a case...?