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Totally with you Theborn
I’m long Shell and though it’s underperformed the other oil majors such as Exxon Mobil Chevron and here BP I’d struggle to make the case to sell them to buy PFG when relatively speaking my holding in PFG is a larger proportion of the market cap and large in relation to risk
Also I do get where bigpunt is coming from so maybe I need to be honest and say that despite my view the shares are unbelievably cheap I just have a horrible feeling that management may have lost control of central costs and deliver a shock to earnings expectations that could in the short term at least drive the shares lower still.
It’s going to be a long road back and a return to FTSE 250 membership at least before the shares are reflective of NAV or the potential of the business but let’s see.
Whatever the outcome Oct 19 is going to be a significant date in the history and timeline of this company and an opportunity for management to come clean which they will ignore at their peril and at our cost.
See below - I'd be filling boots further is hadn't already ploughed all hard earned cash into PFG throughout this nose dive.
Hindsight 20:20 and all that.
I'll be the first to praise management if they can deliver a positive TU next week and importantly elaborate with the transparency and expectation setting we shareholders deserve. Let's see.
Theborn, if you feel the share price underperformance is irrational, then fill your boots with shares which you feel are at a discount! You give management a hard time, and in some areas I agree, but they do not care for views of PI's. Perhaps the II's feel the same way, in which case, the share price being where it is, is fair
I agree - if I hadn't already caught this knife continually on the way down I'd be in further at current prices. Unfortunately PFG has already gobbled up all my liquidity over the past months and years so no cash to do so now.
All the sellers are just algo trades shorting the general UK market and financial sector. But within that, I want to be clear PFG has been downgraded vs market and the buck for that stops with management. As noted, they're running out of time and better start hitting some solid notes and at the very least treat investors with the transparency and respect they deserve. We wait and hope.
I'm with you Barrie - my order is going in now!
Hi Theborn
If I had a fat cash reserve I’d go all in on the basis it’d correct and I’d make a tidy sum but I’m very long in the market, mainly energy sector so will just hold and ignore my stop loss
I do wonder how much of a hit the sellers are taking?
Won't be anything to do with TU, its just getting hit by general algo trading as it always does....then not recovering on the broader market bounces.
Despite commnuication incompetencies of management, unless the TU next week contains a hugely unexpected grenade, this share is stinkingly over-sold. Valuation metrics here are farcical.
Theborn
Down again this morning - in danger of hitting 140s
The xx market must be expecting a negative TU by look of it?
Turdshare.
Need to hold to see the TU on 19th.
These guys need to start delivering for shareholders and time is running short.
Market fall is one thing but this share has been signficantly downgraded vs market even during curent marco climate, when it should be a strong performer.
We are looking at 3x PE valuation and hurtling towards 50% of net asset value. That's a damning idictment so I'm hoping Board and senior management are feeling the pressure prior to this announcement and hit the right notes with this in mind.
Indeed JolietJake
I think I read elsewhere on this board the conspiracy theory the management might be keen to depress the SP do they get nice cheap options but I think it’s more a case that the share is unloved and under the radar - macroeconomic trends are probably not helping but I do worry if there’s bad news out there somewhere that we’re not privy to but if so not long to wait now (19th)
Unbelievable. Can't wait to see how this is dressed up by the Management - "in line with internal expectations"
FFS this share is being buried and no one came to its funeral
Hi Theborn what is significance of PRA decision?
Are we saying PFG can’t lend without their sanction??
Surely if the business can’t lend it’s in collect out mode and not viable so I’m assuming I’ve got it wrong??
*end of December =end of September
Thanks Theborn not long to wait now then before shares either pop or tank
Now confirmed on PFG website: https://www.providentfinancial.com/shareholder-hub/financial-calendar/
Mark the calendar for some MLM bingo:
"delighted by performance" (although missed analyst targets!)
"strong liquidity and headroom" (as they're not adding new business!)
"new customers added" (no mention of net inflow or outflow which is the important point!)
"in line with management expectations" (despite never disclosing these!)
Key point will be PRA allowing use of deposit funds across the group. This was alluded to happen in Q3 (so before end of December) yet still no word. Would warrant an RNS on its own so I suspect its still not been confirmed. Would be a welcome shot in the arm if that happens.
Classic pfg. Up roughly inline with market yesterday. Today down 4x the market. Always the way.
RNS has it as 'market purchase of ordinary shares', so I think it was a regular buy.
I haven't looked but these are usually freebies as part of their incentive plans.
It can only be positive for a PLC of this magnitude
Well, LeMay and Kerpur both just purchased a good chunk of shares, so this could be a positive indicator?
I find these monthly reports useful, as if anything, it highlights the point that the credit market is growing so there is no excuse for PFG to not be expanding their loan book and customer base still within their near-prime risk profile.
Pet the report for August: Consumers borrowed an additional £1.1 billion in consumer credit, on net, a little below the additional £1.5 billion borrowed in July.
Despite this growing trend in H1, PFG failed miserably to grow their loan book, yet were 'delighted' with that outcome. I fully expect same to apply in Q3 trading update. Despite ever growing market, we'll have some smoke and mirrors statement around how XX new customers were added, without going into the detail of net consumer growth and returns. I can already see it on RNS in my mind - MLM hailing how pleased he is as it's 'in line with management expectations, despite never setting out those expectations! Management must be fantastically pleased to deliver on expecations they set out only to themselves once they've seen the numbers for the period.
Full link below:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2022/august-2022?utm_source=Bank+of+England+updates&utm_campaign=cd647a7485-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_09_30_08_11&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_556dbefcdc-cd647a7485-113580406
I've noted this before, but past 5 days banks and FTSE250 down 5%, with a strong bounce today.
PFG down >15%, with no bounce today (depsite FTSE250 reversing most of yesterday's losses).
PFG was down 8% yesterday and on that logic should have reversed all those losses today to be trading back in 180s.
But no, its a pig of a share. It moves down on a 3-4x multiple vs market yet never ever recovers with same multiples.
I'm heavily in and also topped up yesterday. Completely agree in this market PFG should be filling their boots with a positive trading statement for Q3 in the next couple of weeks - however, this is PFG, and PFG management, so I'm fully anticipating the opposite.
Theborn, your gloom is noted. But as I've said before, remember that the rest of the sector is on it's backside and PFG got out. Long before that they diversified in to Vanquis, which you cannot deny, was a stroke of genius. I'm not convinced by vehicle finance but you have to recognise they are trying to grow. You wonder what is in Le May's mind in the current circumstances - so many debt providers are pulling their products and PFG target underserved markets....
I am not a lover nor a hater of the management but it is an exciting time to be in PFG and at these prices!
Theborn
True but I guess the current budget fiasco must be a factor as it’ll undermine creditworthiness of borrowers that form their target customers? Mortgage and rent issues / energy costs to mention but two. I’m holding on though may have to reinstate a stop loss on some of my holding perhaps if the shares stay below 160 for more than three trading sessions!