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Currently, 93% of the market is down, so believe me that pain is everywhere. Bloomberg posted an article that the bear market will likely run until roughly October. So I guess just keep averaging down and buying at these crazy discounts, because at some point this will all tick up again.
This really is an absolute pig of a share. Going to be on a sub-3x PE by end of the week at this rate.
I topped up again today.
The other argument is high inflation pushes previously prime borrowers into near-prime bucket - so PFG benefits from better quality and more customers. Provided they are true to their word on underwriting then anyone who is going from near-prime to sub-prime won't be put on the book. I'd trust the existing book and the fact that even with base rate rising to 2.5% they can take that on their cost of finance and more than easily enough pass on to customers.
4x PE at present. I'm happy to fill boots and hold.
Theborn
Here we go again
PFG SP on floor - tempted but worried their target market might run into difficulties and push impairments up
IDK but hopefully the shares will jump on half decent news and the dividend yield becomes compelling
Hi Theborn
I’ve topped up at 259.00 ex div so am in process of calculating what that reduces my average to but intend to hold for longer term unless there’s a good run and I can trade / top slice
Don’t worry I’m not attributing my decision as a response to a recommendation
GLA and DYOR
Hi Theborn
I like your assessment better than mine and am inclined to follow your lead though with a modest addition and without any sense of you having recommended it.
As you say time will tell but your analysis is well thought out and logical IMHO thanks
Barry - I think that's a very sensible argument but my instinct is the reason for the significant share price undervalue is less sophisticated.
Nearly all the trades of PFG are algo trades, I suspect some algos have Provident linked to banking sector, others to distressed debt and others to consumer related companies. Whenever one of those sectors as a whole takes a knock, PFG gets hammered. When they bounce, PFG bounces at a far lesser rate than the previous fall. So where the sector ends at par, PFG ends up down. This happens continually then on occasion PFG has a big run to catch up - which I'm hoping is now long overdue. It also still gets tarred with negative press from the fallout a few years ago - its a totally different animal now.
Positive business, earnings and dividend updates barely move the dial as they get lost in the algo trading. There also appears to be less emphasis on broker recommendations on shares not on the main market. Being outside the FTSE 100 also hurts.
There will come a time where dividend and EPS alone will start to justify a significant price correction. I'm hopeful this will be once the Ukraine war is resolved and we have further positive quarterly earnings updates. On current price, the dividend yield for next year is 15%!! EPS 30%+. PE ratio is in the 4-5 range now. Its total madness.
I've loaded up even further today. Time will tell.
Hi Theborn
I couldn’t agree more - don’t understand what’s keeping this share down but wary of buying more just in case something is wrong
It’s possible there’s concern over impairment risk due to energy costs disproportionately impacting their customer base which is possible as even though they’re target market is near prime even those are at risk in current market
Shares down by dividend amount and I’m in at average of 327-338 in two blocks so quite a bit out of the money just now
Regardless of going ex-div this is utterly bonkers the share is trading at £2.50. Said it before, but it's worth more than double but can't catch a break. Maybe I'm the mug.
The 200 day sma is 322 which is a sell signal.
Theborn
Managed to lose my draft but couldn’t agree more
I’ve bought recently at 360 / 355 / 326 / 322 and then 290 just the other day but didn’t have the guts to go for it at 220 as was worried the market knew something I didn’t
I’d love to see 450-500 but am not sure how long it’ll take for the results to catch up with the target price?
As you say a 12p dividend ain’t bad at the current price being a bit better than 4% yield with the chance of increased distribution of profits from 30% to 40%
Going to make one more buy around current level or below to drive my average down to c 325 for a 50% return over maybe a year or two but would love to see a doubling of the price from here which isn’t looney tune stuff??
Tangentially related, but I think IPF is a steal right now, even if you're just trading the dip to grab a quick 10% upside. CFO bought today.
On the back of positive results and a v positive q1 trading update hint we see a 15% fall. Despite brokers continually pointing to a fair value of £4-7.
On earnings alone and currebt price this is on a PE of about 5 looking ahead to next year. Should be on PE of c14 valuing it in the £7+ range.
I'll continue to hold and top up but its just one kick in the teeth after another. Dividend alone makes it a bargain.
One day it'll get momentum back and go north of £10. Sucker for punishment at present tho.
This is fag packet stuff, but based on this years earnings from the CC and car loan division, assuming 0 from home loans and similar central costs and amortisation charges, but allowing for 40% of adjusted profit as dividend works out at around 26p.
That's conservative based on the figures, but given the headwinds that can appear from nowhere, it pays to err on the side of caution.
Only a loss of £32.1. Heading in the right direction.
Swing back to profit (4.1m) and dividend of 12p per share for FY'21, which represents a pay-out ratio of adjusted continuing earnings of approximately 30%. Going forwards, we anticipate moving towards a pay-out ratio of adjusted earnings of circa 40% from FY'22 onwards.
Closure of CCD took a big chunk of profit, but this looks a lot better than 2021. Back on track I'd say. FINALLY.
For once, this move inspires confidence. Ex-HSBC, the tide may finally be turning.
News of appointment to cards division obviously well received
Aaaand, today this is actually rallying quite nicely. Results soon. Curious what that will bring.
PFG IS having a good rally but your numbers don't stack up against this SP. Are you posting against the right company, Barrie? Prov in the name, Prov in the mind?
Wish I’d bought some at 1180 but just sold my small position at 1412 for modest profit and will look to get in again in a bit larger way if they fall back though they might continue up if the Ukraine situation improves- GLA DYOR
No need to panic, just the ups and downs of the market. It could be a lot worse, I am invested in FXPO and that is down 43%.
This very low now, especially with full year results and a divi incoming. Tempting. I bought into some ETFs at a 5% discount this morning. (L&G Battery ETF).
An 8.5% Putin fall this morning requires some holding of nerve and on balance I think I probably need to sit tight but below £3.00 feels like a long term buying signal
Meanwhile I declare I’ve a position in Shel and doing OK there so might switch some money across