Member Info for Vind

It's too close to call, but if Saba lose, will we see a pull back in price, or are the recent increases down to Space X upward valuation - despite the reduction in position?

I'm in this for long term capital growth and the chance to get in to tomorrows winners early. Irrespective of the Space X partial sale, I've seen nothing from Saba to suggest expertise in this sector.

Just landed in my AJB account.

Anyone know whats happening with Fire Angel? Is it a complete write off?

How does a company cancel a DB scheme? Or is that not what you really mean.

Be interesting to see if there's a bit of bounce once the trackers buy in

Hi The Born,
Thanks for your posts on this. I kind of got to a similar figure to you for '22. I assumed this years profit figure from CC and Car finance - approx 203mn, took out £30mn for central costs, then applied the 40% figure which amounted to £69mn as a total divvy. Divide by 250mn gives a divvy of 27.6p. If you assume higher profits than '21 FY or lower central costs then I can see where the 30p comes from.
From experience though, we should be cautious, it only takes an big increase in bad debt provision to blow those figures out of the water!
If we put aside that pessimism though, longer term this should see an increasing divvy from an increasingly profitable company which I would hope would lead to a substantial rerating by the market.
What I would say,is that since I've been a holder, this share has increased in bursts, often over quite short timescales.

I'm all for companies reinvesting profits in their businesses, but if the opportunities to do so aren't obvious then I'd rather waste the divi than leave it to them! Which is why I'm happy with the proposed return of capital. Especially in the Life sector.

The sector has a history of overpriced, ill timed or ill fitting acquisitions that have destroyed value. Also life insurers are difficult to value and their profits emerge over long periods and are susceptible to changing assumptions.

I'm up on my Aviva investment, albeit after a fairly bumpy ride, but also value the potential income. I'm pretty relaxed about the price post consolidation, but will certainly be looking to top up on any price falls. Longer term though I can see this rerating to reflect the higher dividend per share.

As ever, thanks to all the contributions on here and hope things work out whatever route you've chosen.

This ultimately will all be about how the market values the dividend and Aviva's ability and willingness to pay it at the indicative rates and also increase it at those rates.

If it it is valued then in time I can see the shares above £6 at a 5%ish yield. If not it'll be an 8.25%er at £4.
You could argue that for 2021 we got 22p on an SP of around £4.25 which is about a 5.2% yield. But if you say there's a pound of capital return in that £4.25 SP, we go to a 6.8% yield on an SP of £3.25

Replicate that, and it's an SP of around £4.85 which to be honest I could live with, especially at .33 a share.

In the slide deck it was 31.5p then 33p. I agree it's not guaranteed, but it's rare to see such a definitive statement of intent. That said, it's Aviva so I'll believe it when it happens. Although if it doesn't it'll probably lead to another changing of the guard and a new strategy!!

I agree, they also said low to mid single digit growth.

They key is that core operations do kick off plenty of cash to maintain and grow the divi whilst also investing in the business.

Some good analysis here and I must admit it's changed my own thinking.
If I reinvest the divi and the B shares, I'll end up with yield on original capital of approaching double figures.
Originally I was going to take the B proceeds off the table, but with returns like that, given I can take some income from the SIPP, it's a good source of income while still showing a capital profit.

On an SP of 4.22 the '22 dividend is about 7.35%. 22p(FY21) on 4.38 is 5%. Has anything been said about where they see future yields?

This is fag packet stuff, but based on this years earnings from the CC and car loan division, assuming 0 from home loans and similar central costs and amortisation charges, but allowing for 40% of adjusted profit as dividend works out at around 26p.
That's conservative based on the figures, but given the headwinds that can appear from nowhere, it pays to err on the side of caution.

I think the wording of the SR announcement is pointing towards a trade sale, that said they talk about good financials and banking facilities.
They've got a highly automated manufacturing operation, they've got good market presence, but the weakness apart from energy which is affecting many industries is their reliance on parent reels.

An epic fail. How old are you? I'm normally reluctant to engage with such obvious trolls but you've made it clear you that you favour the US and have no time for the UK.
How about frequenting some other boards then? There really is no value in you repeating the same old message time and again.

Post CCD, the rest of the business is projecting a £123m profit over a full year. That's a shade under 50p a share which makes the shares look ridiculously cheap. The sums are crude so forgive me if numbers are a bit wide of the mark.

I've been in and out of profit since I first bough these, but now CCd is out of the way, this should turn into a solid if unspectacular business, but with no hidden surprises.

Interesting that SP is almost back to where it was before the latest update which caused a 16% drop.

One of my worst buys I'm afraid, but I believe it will come good. After failing to cash out in Jan 20, I'm holding on.

Good result for you Allenby, and as you say sad to see it go. In my view they've done a decent job redeveloping the Longbridge site. I bought in 5 years ago because a mate who worked there told me more about the company and it sounded interesting. The week after it tanked because of the brexit vote!!
Since then it's hardly ever been underwater and has given me a double digit annual return which has just jumped a couple of percent after this news.
Hope that jobs are safe.

The ex-date or ex-dividend date is the trading date on (and after) which the dividend is not owed to a new buyer of the stock. The ex-date is one business day before the date of record. The date of record is the day on which the company checks its records to identify shareholders of the company.

Keeping above the £4 ex div isn't bad. Sometimes a weak open plus ex div can exaggerate the fall, but markets steady today after recent gains.
Let's hope this carries on. The only worry is the best way to distribute capital. I'm not sure that there's too many outriight growth opps in the UK insurance market.

Getting a bit of momentum before ex-div in a week or so.
If it's above £4 ex div I'll be fairly happy.
What does everyone else think?

I use these boards occasionally to sense check reaction to corporate news.
As with forums on most topics there's lots of rubbish, but some genuine insight too.
There's also the resident bore/troll, call it what you will, that hijacks threads repeating the same stuff over and over. They are usually wrong, and on investment forums, rarely have skin in the game, which makes me think they are just there to troll long term investors.
Even in a lockdown, it's pretty sad behaviour. I'm sure most holders are capable of understanding corporate news and its implications.

I wonder what's actually behind some of these complaints.
How much of it is down to customers chancing their arm "If you complain you'll get some compo or maybe even get the loan written off" and what we're seeing is a me too effect.
Given the regulatory environment, I would be interested to see the dates of the loans that have caused the complaints. If they are fairly new loans, and the company have not been following good processes, then they need their arses kicking.
If they are older loans, and there were concens then the company should have made this issue known. God knows they've had enough opportunities to kitchen sink it over the last few years.
Bottom line is we need to see how many of these complaints are genuine and how many are "me too" chancing their arm.
Either way, getting out of this market once and for all would be a good move. Vanquis and Money Barn are decent businesses that can operate without the overheads of CCD