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Started: hxulcolrdoh, 20 Mar 2023 17:00
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 20 Mar 2023 17:00
Vanquis Banking Group PLC
GBX 227.20
4.03%
+8.80 Today
Mar 6, 8:14:18?AM UTC · GBX · LON
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 2 Mar 2023 19:56
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 2 Mar 2023 19:56
Provident Financial plc is now Vanquis Banking Group plc.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PFG/company-name-change-5bxz41nfb38wlou.html
I was expecting more confetti and balloons.
Hopefully at some point over the course of the next month they will put some effort into setting out their stall.
Started: KCCO, 1 Mar 2023 22:48
Last post: Vind, 2 Mar 2023 14:57
Be interesting to see if there's a bit of bounce once the trackers buy in
I’ve had a holding in PFG for a few years, since around Neil Woodford fund crashed. I’m conscious there shares been relatively flat and understand the gloom other holders may feel. Though I really do believe we are approaching a turning point here.
Since dropping their footy step loan business the greatest problem is now gone. The exceptional
Costs are have been reported and are in the past. The group is now reposition and prepared to take on
growth. This share will become a good and consistent dividend payer.
Also we are back into the FTSE250 and hopefully back into the FTSE100 in the future !
Started: Ubik_Fresh, 1 Mar 2023 09:17
Last post: Ubik_Fresh, 1 Mar 2023 09:17
Prov Spin off International Personal Finance posting strong results today, with a 16% increase in divi and and SP that's not all that volatile compared to PFG. Wish we could see this kind of stable growth at PFG. Hopefully we finally see the ship turning this year.
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 7 Feb 2023 15:37
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 7 Feb 2023 17:54
In my own case I have enough PFG for now. Although I suspect it is under valued the only thing I know for sure is that communications and investor relations are very poor – so it is hard to be sure.
An incoming regime can’t do any worse in this area. So I’m glad to see the change. However if the outgoing regime has been misunderstood it is the last chance to clarify the record.
Not sure March 31 has anything to do with MLM's vision of PFG. PFG are moving from a niche player under MLM to a challenger bank under IMcL.
Amount of credit is very high at the moment so I understand the downward pressure on share price, especially with quite a lot of credit issued in vehicle finance
I don't mind the SP going down as I need to fill up my SIPP in the next 6 weeks
March 31st is MLM’s big opportunity to have his achievements noted for the record books and to set out the stall for PFG 2.0.
Should be interesting.
March 31st is MLM’s big opportunity his achievements noted for the record books and to set out the stall for PFG 2.0.
Should be interesting.
Last post: Barrieprov, 7 Feb 2023 16:08
At this rate won’t get picked up by trackers as market cap will not be high enough
FTSE250 down 1.37%.....PFG down 7%. Again, any market dip and we are down at 5x the rate.
When FTSE250 up 1.4% last week, PFG flat.
This is part of the reason PFG ends up trading at a huge discount as this process forever repeats.
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 28 Jan 2023 20:43
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 4 Feb 2023 18:44
What I’d really like to see from PFG 2.0 is a complete reset with regard to market communication.
I’d like to see clear, conscise, consistent information.
I’d like to see guidance even if it exposes the company to accountability.
I’d NOT like to see meandering 300 page year end financial reports laden with number fudgery.
It looks like it will take a while to transition in a new CEO (summer).
Meanwhile a potential interpretation of the problematically vague (but consistent) messages from the outgoing team over the year is that PFG 2.0 aka VANQ has ‘launch control’ engaged and all the new CEO has to do is hit the button. Then PFG2.0 takes off like a scalded cat?. Self effacingly the outgoing regime have been hiding their light under a bushel ?
It will be interesting to see how the YE results are presented on March 31st.
Comments throughout the year ...
Q1 : "I am pleased to report that the Group continued to trade in-line with management's expectations during the first quarter of 2022”
Q2: "I am delighted with the Group's first half performance. We have delivered growth and returns in line with market expectations”
Q3: "I am pleased to report that the Group continued to perform in-line with management's expectations throughout the third quarter of 2022 and into October.
Q4: “· The Group continued to trade in-line with management and current market expectations for FY'22 during the fourth quarter of the year.”
Q4 additions / YE Summary :
2022 was a transformational year for the Group as we built on the very strong foundations put in place during the previous year. … The Group remains well positioned to deliver long-term attractive and sustainable returns to shareholders and the Board remain confident in the outlook for our businesses.
In the Group's credit card business, receivables grew by approximately 9% during the fourth quarter and by approximately 11% for the year as a whole.
The Group's vehicle finance business saw receivables growth of approximately 5% during the fourth quarter and of approximately 10% for FY'22 as a whole. Credit issued increased by 19% year-on-year, reflecting its strong competitive positioning and attractive pricing policy, and the business had approximately 100k customers for the first time as of 31 December.
The Group's personal loans business also had an excellent fourth quarter. It reached an important milestone of lending over £10m to customers in a single month, resulting in strong receivables and customer numbers growth to approximately £75m and approximately 34k respectively as of 31 December.
The Group continued to be underpinned by a strong, well-capitalised balance sheet during the fourth quarter and ..funding options were improved by the approval of the large exposure waiver by the PRA, as previously disclosed in the fourth quarter.
The Group has decided to change its name to Vanquis Banking Group plc … expected to be effective in March 2023.
Started: Barrieprov, 26 Jan 2023 16:48
Last post: bigpunt, 3 Feb 2023 20:49
I find it quite a good investment strategy to do the exact opposite of what the small and mid cap analysts like Peel Hunt call for. Even when they are broker-analyst they get it wrong!
Come to think of it, Peel Hunt said on 26th after TU that PFG was trading cheaply and gave a solid view. Weird how in a week they become more pessimistic. Pretty sure PH used to be an advisor to PFG but got kicked off the role. Maybe this is some sour grapes
I see Peel Hunt have stuck the knife in today. They have no idea what they are talking about. PFG have supposedly reigned in risk and already have significant provisioning in place. They've had minimal growth in the year and Peel Hunt talking like they've trebled their loan book. Bore off guys.
Bwahahah. Yes. I just want a half decent price to GTFO of this share.
...and there we have it, the glory of holding PFG. Market up 3% yesterday, PFG flat. Market down today 0.7%, PFG down 4%.
Started: TheProviVan, 30 Jan 2023 19:04
Last post: TheProviVan, 30 Jan 2023 19:04
The answer to your closed question is no. Barrieprov posts are just fine and if you don't like them, surely that's your problem. You obviously didn't like my comment regarding facts. My posts will highlight factual information, otherwise I will use IMO. So lets stop the sarcasm and treat each other with respect. Thank you.
Started: TheProviVan, 30 Jan 2023 14:26
Last post: TheProviVan, 30 Jan 2023 14:26
OIC, Thanks for pointing that out, interesting,. So they are not comparing new customer bookings 2022 to new customer bookings 2021. That means the 225k should increase to include any loans and if that figure doesn't increase, the comparison should have been against 212k and not 199k.
Started: TheProviVan, 30 Jan 2023 08:10
Last post: Halifacts, 30 Jan 2023 12:21
199k credit cards, the remainder being loans (Annual report dated 20 April, page 9, paragraph 3).
From the Q4 22 trading update (26/01/2023). The Group’s credit card business.
New customer acquisition volumes were approximately 225k for FY’22 (FY’21: 199k) and yet the Annual Report for 2021 states 212k. Strange that 13k has doubled to 26k, bit of a coincidence, but 26k increase looks better. PFG just love telling us how many new customers Vanquis have put on as it sounds good, but looking at the last three years they have lost customers every year. Customer count 1,541m (2021).1,667m (2020), 1,720m (2019), 1,773m (2018). in three years they have lost 232,000 customers and that's the bread and butter business. At the beginning of 2021 they closed 114.000 dormant accounts. Is 225,000 (2022) new customers enough to increase the customer base? Even if it is, they've had two more years for the dormant customers to build up again and that's why they never tell us how many active accounts there are.
Started: Barrieprov, 26 Jan 2023 13:36
Last post: Ubik_Fresh, 26 Jan 2023 14:42
Positive update for me. Has made me think about holding for longer.
It’s been a while since I’ve seen positive SP response to announcement and particularly PFG so I’m pleased I didn’t jump shop ahead of the announcement though I’m sure there’ll be challenges ahead
GLA as there will be some sellers who bought in low
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 26 Jan 2023 07:56
Last post: Petr_, 26 Jan 2023 11:25
From my POV overall positive update, but for sure to be confirmed by the results in March.
Change of the name / CEO perceived positively (seems Mr. Market likes it as well)
Hope to see positive trend continuation on shares price...
Absolutely. I'm sure we will see MLM on the board as a NED receiving £100k pa for doing nothing, and don't forget his significant shareholding taking pleasant dividends.
The business will almost certainly be looking at a significant finance raise to properly participate in the mortgage market and a new CEO is a big part of this
I guess the thinking is that a CMD would probably be better fronted by someone (justified or not) with less baggage/more credibility than MLM.
Great news. I could foresee PFG becoming a proper bank with the launch of personal loans, and it seems the wheels are firmly in motion now. This will now be my #1 share using up my 23/24 ISA allowance
I'm just glad we got a good period of getting in while the price started with a 1
Yes there will be choppy waters to navigate but the bank have seen away practically all of the sub-prime competition and I'm sure they will be a major player in the banking market by the end of the decade. I just hope they are not tempted to internationalise too quickly
Meanwhile us enduring shareholders wander on into the wilderness in the hope of finding the mythical promised land of a Capital Markets Day.
Folklore has it that many moons ago, when PFG promised a CMD they'd actually arrange one. We can but dream.
Started: Pooks, 26 Jan 2023 07:25
Last post: Pooks, 26 Jan 2023 07:25
I’ve said for some time PF needs to change its name to reflect what the company is today… A positive move ??
Started: Theborn, 25 Jan 2023 14:25
Last post: Theborn, 25 Jan 2023 14:25
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-affirms-oban-cards-2021-1-plc-24-01-2023
I see Vanquis have successfully structured their first securitisation whch should help reduce their cost of capital.
Seems Fitch have applied a good credit rating to the vehicle, in spite of increasing rates and inflation likely to impact customers. This is because PFG apparently already have prudent provisions in place if this were to happen. As we've mentioned previously, I suspect if anything PFG are over-provisioned at present which means upside to P&L once they are released. Management holding some back in the tank (allowing them to purchase shares at low value).
Fitch comment:
Fitch has a deteriorating asset performance outlook for unsecured ABS. Rising interest rates and high inflation will squeeze borrower affordability and lead to greater defaults in this sector. However, increases in defaults are already largely anticipated at the transaction level by the existing conservative base case.
Started: Barrieprov, 25 Jan 2023 12:03
Last post: Barrieprov, 25 Jan 2023 12:03
Little volume and SP down 2
Uninspiring on eve of results announcement
Hopefully won’t be a flurry of selling on back of Q4 and therefore whole year forecast plus outlook if any guidance given is likely to have most impact though dividend might support price as yield likely to be good though that’s a hollow argument if shares fall 20%
GLA for better or worse I’ve decided to hold until tomorrow though it feels a bit random and is in no way a recommendation so as always DYOR
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 10 Jan 2023 18:04
Last post: Theborn, 24 Jan 2023 19:27
Schroders topping up.
Hopefully they know something from management we don't.
I’m still way out of the money at these prices
Unless it hits £3 I’m either locked in for long term or capitulating on at least part of position
I sure hope so. If they can't get sub-prime lending right in this economic environment, there's no hope!
Anticipatory rise in SP??
I definitely want out of this share, but am minded to hold on a little longer. If results are pants, I may just take the pain and get out.
Started: Barrieprov, 20 Jan 2023 10:09
Last post: Barrieprov, 20 Jan 2023 10:09
Need to watch PFG closely ahead of 26th I think
Just seen ordinary sell trade of 100,000 shares at £2
It’s nothing in the greater scheme but if there’s significant net selling ahead of the announcement followed by fall in SP that might be a red flag though I’d like to think there’s no leaking of info from company ahead of announcement
GLA I’m probably going to hold though might set some tax losses in PFG v my other holding in SHEL
It’s tricky but on a FIFO basis I’ve bought some shares at double the price of subsequent purchases so could book a significant loss by trimming while cutting my weighted average moving forward to hopefully seeing a better return / yield going forward
Having held my nerve when the shares hit 130 but not being ballsy enough to buy the dip I guess I might as well wait a few more days to see if the management deliver a final dose of BS to shareholders and if they do I hope there is some activism among the ii to oust MLM as to me he’ll have lost what small amount of credibility he might have left
hxulcolrdoh
I’m afraid you’re right and no doubt the SP will remain in the doldrums off the back of it
Only a decent dividend might help lift the SP on yield considerations but that only works if earrings and payout look to be sustainable and a lack of guidance there will not improve sentiment
Hi Barrieprov.
The Q3 statement in a nutshell was
"I am pleased to report that the Group continued to perform in-line with management's expectations throughout the third quarter of 2022 and into October."
I expect that the Q4 statement will be as equally bland/informative (not).
Agree Ubik_Fresh and I’m even wondering if the results will disappoint and SP go lower in aftermath but am reluctant to sell any portion of my position ahead of results seeing the price having fallen as low as 130
I followed Amigo BB and it followed a pattern of dashed hope I saw with Thomas Cook group that a friend of mine had built a significant stake in - your comments about different market are noted but there are millions out there who can’t pay their energy bills let alone afford to borrow anything
GLA - 26th only a week away now so fingers crossed !
Fully agree, also a morally questionable model. I do wonder if we'll see any kind of decent uptick though. These levels are depressing.
Looks like Amigo are struggling to re finance.. thank goodness PF are no longer in that market a painful but wise move at the time .
Started: Theborn, 10 Jan 2023 17:07
Last post: Theborn, 10 Jan 2023 17:07
Posted today on their website. Would hope for a guide on dividend too.
FY results published 31 March 2023.
Started: Barrieprov, 6 Jan 2023 16:48
Last post: Halifacts, 10 Jan 2023 17:04
You've done it again Bazza. Just let it silently rise, you shout it's at 205 and before you know it, we're back at 197.
All these tools we have available to use calculating trends, averages, etc. etc. Pointless. As soon as Barrie comments I'm selling, then buying back a day or two later! Missed it this time!
Just offering some thoughts HX.
PFG is synonymous with paying a high dividend (between 5-10% of mkt cap). Execs hate paying dividends, so perhaps this would be a motivation to keep a lid on the share price? Equally, if the share price soars, new institutional investors may come aboard with great expectations of the company and this would be a threat to the Exec's jobs.
The cynical but unavoidable view is to consider that the Execs are creaming it. This is absolutely true. I personally think they deserve a huge amount of credit for the action taken over CCD and I actually enjoy the share price being suppressed (in my view) because I want to increase my position!
I’d like to think that if we got the presentation of 2022 finals at the end of March and PFG were still languishing at current levels then larger shareholders would ask the question WHY ?
WHY ? Is a question I keep asking myself.
It is not a response any market guidance. None has been shared. Nobody knows what the company targets are. If there is some inner circle group who have been given information not available to other market participants then this would be illegal. Other companies will engage analysts to enlighten the market about the opportunities for their company, providing links on their website tagged with appropriate disclosures / warnings / caveat emptor etc . If Numis or Barclays do anything for PFG I can’t find it.
It is not a response to any deviation from the plan as nobody knows what the plan is and the only RNS announcements have been the obligatory minimum.
It is not a response to any badly received shareholder engagment. There has been none. The CMD that was mentioned with the July interim's never happened. In September there was what I thought was a start ( https://panmure.com/insights/meet-the-ceo-malcolm-le-may/ ) but apparently one swallow does not make a Spring.
I’m still trying to work out the WHY? At present I feel that there is some conflict of interest between what is best for the corporate entity versus what senior management feel is best for them personally.
Would hope for a TU next week. Last year it was 13 Jan. Although this year 13th is a Friday so would happily wait until the Monday otherwise the headlines write themselves....
Nice to see a 2 handle on this share no matter how sparingly
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 30 Dec 2022 14:08
Last post: Theborn, 5 Jan 2023 13:58
and still awaiting the mythical Capital Markets Day....
For context : in 2022 the FTSE 350 opened @4228.67 and closed @4147.11 (2% drop).
Meanwhile PFG fell by a shocking 46%.
Yes a long way to go Barrieprov.
A perfect summary of 2022.
and of 2021
and of 2020
and of 2019
Congratulations to MLM and the team for either a) failing to deliver or b) delivering and failing to communicate the message. I'm not sure which.
The market clearly voted with its feet. Let's hope 2023 is better.
Started: Barrieprov, 5 Jan 2023 10:19
Last post: Barrieprov, 5 Jan 2023 10:19
Nice to see SP over £2 no matter how briefly
Still a long way to go
Started: Barrieprov, 28 Dec 2022 21:04
Last post: Barrieprov, 28 Dec 2022 21:04
3 ordinary buy trades today - approaching year end and price still reasonably cheap at 188p
295,000
705,000
100,000