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https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-affirms-oban-cards-2021-1-plc-24-01-2023
I see Vanquis have successfully structured their first securitisation whch should help reduce their cost of capital.
Seems Fitch have applied a good credit rating to the vehicle, in spite of increasing rates and inflation likely to impact customers. This is because PFG apparently already have prudent provisions in place if this were to happen. As we've mentioned previously, I suspect if anything PFG are over-provisioned at present which means upside to P&L once they are released. Management holding some back in the tank (allowing them to purchase shares at low value).
Fitch comment:
Fitch has a deteriorating asset performance outlook for unsecured ABS. Rising interest rates and high inflation will squeeze borrower affordability and lead to greater defaults in this sector. However, increases in defaults are already largely anticipated at the transaction level by the existing conservative base case.
Little volume and SP down 2
Uninspiring on eve of results announcement
Hopefully won’t be a flurry of selling on back of Q4 and therefore whole year forecast plus outlook if any guidance given is likely to have most impact though dividend might support price as yield likely to be good though that’s a hollow argument if shares fall 20%
GLA for better or worse I’ve decided to hold until tomorrow though it feels a bit random and is in no way a recommendation so as always DYOR
Schroders topping up.
Hopefully they know something from management we don't.
I’m still way out of the money at these prices
Unless it hits £3 I’m either locked in for long term or capitulating on at least part of position
I sure hope so. If they can't get sub-prime lending right in this economic environment, there's no hope!
Anticipatory rise in SP??
I definitely want out of this share, but am minded to hold on a little longer. If results are pants, I may just take the pain and get out.
Hxulcolrdoh
I absolutely love your post!
I think my adrenaline is totally exhausted and indeed it does feel like watching an episode of air crash investigation where you discover the plane has been on autopilot and the captain and crew are still in the airport lounge Downing margaritas and flirting with the stewardesses - think you’re also ghost writing the updates as they’re just a bit too close for comfort!
That said GLA and I hope the SP doesn’t plunge
At the end of another week musing and anticipating the Q4 update..
MLM : “I am delighted to report that the Group finished the year in-line with management's expectations. Furthermore I can now reveal what these were – thrills and spills. Hence the need for general obfuscation . Nonsense such as guidance would have resulted in a boring share price.”
One adrenaline junkie / shareholder ‘Barrieprov’ commented. “What a year! Who needs Alton Towers! My highlight was the Oct 24th 20 year all time closing low of 136.3p. Just when I thought PFG was toast it pulled out of an apparent death dive. Sick”.
Need to watch PFG closely ahead of 26th I think
Just seen ordinary sell trade of 100,000 shares at £2
It’s nothing in the greater scheme but if there’s significant net selling ahead of the announcement followed by fall in SP that might be a red flag though I’d like to think there’s no leaking of info from company ahead of announcement
GLA I’m probably going to hold though might set some tax losses in PFG v my other holding in SHEL
It’s tricky but on a FIFO basis I’ve bought some shares at double the price of subsequent purchases so could book a significant loss by trimming while cutting my weighted average moving forward to hopefully seeing a better return / yield going forward
Having held my nerve when the shares hit 130 but not being ballsy enough to buy the dip I guess I might as well wait a few more days to see if the management deliver a final dose of BS to shareholders and if they do I hope there is some activism among the ii to oust MLM as to me he’ll have lost what small amount of credibility he might have left
hxulcolrdoh
I’m afraid you’re right and no doubt the SP will remain in the doldrums off the back of it
Only a decent dividend might help lift the SP on yield considerations but that only works if earrings and payout look to be sustainable and a lack of guidance there will not improve sentiment
Hi Barrieprov.
The Q3 statement in a nutshell was
"I am pleased to report that the Group continued to perform in-line with management's expectations throughout the third quarter of 2022 and into October."
I expect that the Q4 statement will be as equally bland/informative (not).
Agree Ubik_Fresh and I’m even wondering if the results will disappoint and SP go lower in aftermath but am reluctant to sell any portion of my position ahead of results seeing the price having fallen as low as 130
I followed Amigo BB and it followed a pattern of dashed hope I saw with Thomas Cook group that a friend of mine had built a significant stake in - your comments about different market are noted but there are millions out there who can’t pay their energy bills let alone afford to borrow anything
GLA - 26th only a week away now so fingers crossed !
Fully agree, also a morally questionable model. I do wonder if we'll see any kind of decent uptick though. These levels are depressing.
Looks like Amigo are struggling to re finance.. thank goodness PF are no longer in that market a painful but wise move at the time .
I’m still asking myself why there was capital destruction of roughly £420m - 46% at PFG during 2022.
Possible options that have crossed my mind are
a) The underlying performance of the company has been poor. The fall has been commensurate and correctly reflects true value. However I would have expected profit warnings in this scenario. There have been none.
b) The CEO’s ‘get up an go’ has ‘got up an left’ and he is content to back peddle/bluff his way through to retirement. Meanwhile he is not that interested and isn’t going to stress about the share price.
c) Perhaps perversely senior managers are incentivised to seek share price weakness ? For example last year as part of RSP remuneration Malcom Le May and Neeraj Kapur where awarded 211,944 + 116,881 shares respectively with aim of aligning their interests with those of other shareholders. The amounts represented 100% and 75% of base salary based on a share price of 336.8p.
If this exercise was repeated this year and based on the YE price of 191.2p they’d receive 373,430 + 205,935 shares – ie a 76% increase!, ie share price weakness = greater rewards! Could it be that in the accumulation phase of of acquiring shares that they are expected to own, share price weakness benefits senior management? I’d like to think that there are mechanisms in the remuneration arrangements to discourage this. However I’m also a big believer in ‘unintended consequences’ and have lost track of the number of times that the ‘obvious’ thing to do was the wrong one.
d) Something else ? The Bazza effect :) ?
Posted today on their website. Would hope for a guide on dividend too.
FY results published 31 March 2023.
You've done it again Bazza. Just let it silently rise, you shout it's at 205 and before you know it, we're back at 197.
All these tools we have available to use calculating trends, averages, etc. etc. Pointless. As soon as Barrie comments I'm selling, then buying back a day or two later! Missed it this time!
Just offering some thoughts HX.
PFG is synonymous with paying a high dividend (between 5-10% of mkt cap). Execs hate paying dividends, so perhaps this would be a motivation to keep a lid on the share price? Equally, if the share price soars, new institutional investors may come aboard with great expectations of the company and this would be a threat to the Exec's jobs.
The cynical but unavoidable view is to consider that the Execs are creaming it. This is absolutely true. I personally think they deserve a huge amount of credit for the action taken over CCD and I actually enjoy the share price being suppressed (in my view) because I want to increase my position!
I’d like to think that if we got the presentation of 2022 finals at the end of March and PFG were still languishing at current levels then larger shareholders would ask the question WHY ?
WHY ? Is a question I keep asking myself.
It is not a response any market guidance. None has been shared. Nobody knows what the company targets are. If there is some inner circle group who have been given information not available to other market participants then this would be illegal. Other companies will engage analysts to enlighten the market about the opportunities for their company, providing links on their website tagged with appropriate disclosures / warnings / caveat emptor etc . If Numis or Barclays do anything for PFG I can’t find it.
It is not a response to any deviation from the plan as nobody knows what the plan is and the only RNS announcements have been the obligatory minimum.
It is not a response to any badly received shareholder engagment. There has been none. The CMD that was mentioned with the July interim's never happened. In September there was what I thought was a start ( https://panmure.com/insights/meet-the-ceo-malcolm-le-may/ ) but apparently one swallow does not make a Spring.
I’m still trying to work out the WHY? At present I feel that there is some conflict of interest between what is best for the corporate entity versus what senior management feel is best for them personally.
Would hope for a TU next week. Last year it was 13 Jan. Although this year 13th is a Friday so would happily wait until the Monday otherwise the headlines write themselves....
Nice to see a 2 handle on this share no matter how sparingly
and still awaiting the mythical Capital Markets Day....
For context : in 2022 the FTSE 350 opened @4228.67 and closed @4147.11 (2% drop).
Meanwhile PFG fell by a shocking 46%.
Yes a long way to go Barrieprov.
Nice to see SP over £2 no matter how briefly
Still a long way to go