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and for comparative ...here is today's Today Open : 421.50 Low : 417.27 High : 425.90 Close: 422.60 also relatively flat on the day
Here is why you shouldn't over-read into today's sp - below is the sp bahaviour on the day before Skrill acqn was announced Pro-forma sp ( adjusted for dilution effect) Open : 243.79 Low : 235.08 High : 246.69 Close: 243.06 so like today - it was relatively flat
Well - imo it will be a damp squib. Nothing special ref results, no "bold M&A" and, unfortunately, no positive market reaction. Happy to be proved wrong but the absence of a list minute flurry suggests otherwise. GS
We are all eagerly waiting for that RNS tomorrow 7am :) How many of you can sleep well tonight lol
Any thoughts on what kind of price are we looking at tmrw?
Can bid next week. I am only guessing
Did you all notice how share price dropped down to 416p to sell on open on Friday, then subsequently recovered. That's MM trying to scare people to sell prior to Tuesday. Classic sign of a major boost coming on Tuesday. Expect similar antics on Mon & Tues opening prices.
@phoenix - just to pick up your point - is my M&A view driven by charts ? simple answer - No - it is just that charts act as a way of reinforcing my view and let me explain why JL has been talking about "bold M&A" and a market Cap of $10bn - the graphs simply tell me that the ii ( real movers of this stock) buy that perception and things are following the same pattern again
Thanks Phoenix, I too have been in here a long time without ducking in and out as that is not my style. It's always fun to speculate which is why we do it, although I agree its anyone's guess. Wolfhound may be right about M &A, you may be right about the introduction of dividends. Another potential is a Nasdaq listing. All we know for sure is that the current PE is far too low for the nature of the beast and is unwarranted unless the business is facing a significant slowdown, which I don't believe and nor for that matter does the CEO.
I think you are right, spending 100 million in a buy back would be odd, and a strange way to spend company money, if your profit figures were looking disappointing. But the level of speculation on here about where PAYS are going is beginning to get a little out of hand. I have a great deal of respect for Wolfhound and I hope his predictions about M&A activity are spot on because I am in to PAYS for 26k at an average price well beneath today's SP. Yet, the more we all speculate on here, surely the greater the chances of a dip come the 7th if the results are only thought to be 'as expected' and / or no M&A activity is announced? Wolfhound, is your expectation of M&A based just on charting? If so, could not the resemblance to prior the Skrill announcement just be a coincidence? Now, let me say it again. I've been in and out of PAYS since the OPAY days and a price of under 90p. It has been the best share I have ever had in 30 years of playing the markets. It also continues to give and give, even offering the chance to top up back in December on the shorting day. I never expect to pick such a brilliant share again and I would love it to keep on paying off, but I now believe a bit too much is expected by new buyers of this stock and when results don't seem as startling as they used to be, there is a fair bit of baling out. Hence, a rapid and big hike next week will probably need a big announcement to provoke it. Then there are the shorters. Again. Wolfhound gives the best read on where we stand with them. Yet, their possiblebackground prescience still bothers me. Hence, let's show some caution on here now and wait patiently for the ever-closer results day. But before we do, let me contradict my post a bit by offering this as a possible piece of good news next week. Perhaps, instead of M&A activity, PAYS are to announce a policy of paying dividends? That surely, would be welcomed by the markets, providing their figures add up, of course. Doubtful the BOD would get such figures wrong, though! We shall see very soon.
Furthermore, if I was organising the buyback, i would buy shares, to stop the sell on the news brigade.
You simply don't do it, if you know your results are bad, or not good enough. Reckon were5in for a treat, come the 7th..
I set 425p as my target sp pre the publication of results on the 7th back on 19th Jan (post 482) - I know a few folks thought I was slightly mad in that call - more thought that I needed prompt medical attention :) - now on for the next piece of my target with hopefully M&A announced on the 7th and sp rocketing by 50%+, I will repeat my point from that post - prior to Skrill we traded on a PE of 18.4 compared to current PE 10/11 - despite having reduced the "single asian client( Bet365) down from 30% to 13% - so a re-rating is long overdue with or without M&A activity - with hard financial numbers from 2016 it should be easier to prove these levels with actual hard audited numbers and draw a line under it so we can move on. Otherwise PAYS will get taken over IMHO. After all our growth rate for 2016 - was targetting "low double digit" - actually achieved 18% LFL !!
We are still 10% below where the sp was before the shorting attack and we rrade heavily discounted to peers in terms of PE multiples - so from that perspective there is no reason it should fall, and in fact we have a buy back programme that is still in place if required - so little or no incentive for additional shorter activity. Currently the sp has not priced in any M&A activity - in the same way as it didn't prior to Skrill announcment. All we can say for certain is that the graphs are looking very similar - with some unique features such as golden cross also appearing this time round. That said - only 2.5 business days and we will know for sure GLA
@AATM - you may well be right, and I still have not decided how I am going to play this outside my SIPP which is there until PAYS is bought or rules the world...). This share has a nasty habit of falling in price after an announcement. There have been exceptions, but in general that is what happens. The last price (avge) paid before PAYS stopped its buyback was 399.5p. We could easily be at 43x by results day and that leaves room for a 10% slide. The shorts are still there and I have enormous respect for their judgement (esp AEK who are the largest). Anyone who dismisses them is a fool or a genius. I believe that there is a weight of expectation about "brave M&A" that will weigh on the sp if there is not a "brave" announcement. I know enough about M&A to understand that nothing is done until the ink is on the paper. So as of today, there is nothing tangible here. Soft words and all that. Equally, the last update looked very much as if the CFO had shaken everything out he had tucked away. So the numbers for last year are likely to be exactly as per that update. Expectations of a further uplift will probably be disappointed. On the flip side, it is perfectly possible that the chairman's/ceo's statements on Tuesday are sufficiently upbeat about current/future trading to spark a surge in sp (Technie is correct - PAYS has lagged the market). It is equally possible that lightning strikes twice and a game changing bit of m&a is announced on Tuesday. I have no doubt the bod is trying, but it would still be a great bit of showmanship. So I just don't know. I will probably end up dithering, selling some and keeping some.... GLA GS
Gsmiley- this time round we have buybacks to support sp if it dips below 400 so the urge to dip out might not be as great. Personally i think weighing up risk/opp means i'll be holding. Also the usual trading pattern not seen this time pre-announcement. Last time i did sell after the news and remember watching share price continue to soar up to 460-470 before the shorts moved in, this time i expect buybacks will help mitigate sp manipulation by shorters, IF no new news announced. Gla and dyor.
@kingrav - I agree. Bearish signals resolving positively suggest something bigger happening. The simplest explanation seems to be the bull market and the new ATHs. A rising tide and all that. @GS - I understand your concern about results. My own concern is that as the market is breaking into new highs PAYS isn't. At the moment it feels to me as if this is a punt on whether it catches up or continues to lag. I only have a very small PAYS position now. If this is the bull market I think it might be then I want to reduce my activity levels and simply own LUK2 and attempt to sidestep the largest market corrections along the way. I'll continue to watch PAYS but probably won't be around as much. GLA
@technie - Still in the rising channel that I think formed about 6 weeks ago. Whatever that means.... Having said which my concern is that anticipation is mounting for an exciting announcement next week. The bod may well be able to timetable it accordingly, but the sp will drop if all we hear is what we already know. GS
The p/e for Pays is extremely low and as I indicated yesterday I believe Pays is due for a reevaluation. Pays has actually performed pretty poorly over the last 12 months, barely rising at all up only 4% and placed 233/350. Over 6 months even worse 271/350. Considering the growth in profitability of the company this is ridiculously low as is the pe ratio. Clearly Pays had had a good run in the first 8 months of last year with Skrill et al, but now is the time to play catch up again and I believe it is happening hence why I indicated the 600p may come sooner than we think, but as always dyor.
These have soared today on massive profits in US today. Must have a knock on effect on Paysafe???
They say if bearish candles, changes to a bullish tone, we're in for an extended bull run !!
I agree we seem to have broken with the traditional PAYS "trading" pattern - as witnessed by the emergence of a golden cross - this is only the second time in more than 10 years that we have seen that signal on PAYS last time was the Skrill acquisition announcement.
I thought there was a chance it was setting up to correct last week but that hasn't materialised. It keeps grinding higher and doesn't feel like normal PAYS trading to me. As a result I don't feel like I have a good read on it at the moment.
50 DEMA crossed over 200 DEMA - onwards and upwards !!
whilst I wouldn't disagree with much of what you say Uncle John re analysts - I think the difference with PAYS is that they are saying that it is trading at a massive discount to its peers as it trades on a PE of say 11 to peers PE of 18+ ( PE of 28+ in the USA) .... it was reported on another board that Morgan Stanley in their research report supporting their upgrade that a "deal was close" and that underpinned their view that a re-rating was due and most likely will happen in tandem with a deal being announced. Subject to the terms of a deal being announced then I think we could see 600p comfortably - pre any deal I suspect we will see new highs - i.e. increase of 40p in the next 7 days. Breatheasy - glad my ramblings were of some use re shorts