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Jason, that wording doesn't confirm a commercial assessment will be carried out. I would imagine they will wait to further appraisal up dip occurs. Indeed they have only recently completed their leasing strategy. However LKA ran a commercial assessment in their IERs for Alkaid and SMD, note these will be dated now.
Troughsnout claims there is a massive difference regards IERs and CPRs when as I understand it there is not. Having spoken to an ex oil industry professional who advised on IERs and CPRs, the main difference is the amount of people who undertake the review.
It would be great if troughsnout could share the modelling behind his claims it's not commercial. However I am aware he doesn't have the data or the know how to undertake this.
The scope of the overall engagement and the scope of each publicly released report will be carefully managed to ensure the board stick to their goal of achieving $5-10 per barrel.
This is absolutely normal and again is a sign of good and disciplined governance being implemented since DH’s involvement.
As a professional troughsnout should be more than capable of identifying the difference, but obviously it doesn’t fit his agenda. Continued dishonest behaviour and posts border on misleading behaviour, if only anybody took him seriously enough to care. I doubt the regulators will as he would have to make a gain to be reviewed and to be honest, it’s obvious he is simply looking for a short term drop to recover his losses from a stupid position. Following an institution like Mangrove, who already have secured their out, is unlikely to be a winning strategy.
@Troughsnout,
All I needed to do was go to their homepage. Management is engaging NS for a full economic analysis, as we would expect. I don’t believe there is an effort to be less than completely transparent.
“Pantheon’s near-term focus is to prove the resource, reserve and commercial potential of its Ahpun project, where the Company believes a significant commercial resource has been discovered and successfully tested at Alkaid-2. Netherland, Sewell & Associates has been contracted to provide an independent assessment of recoverable resources at the Ahpun project which is expected to be completed during Q1 2024.“
Troughsnout, as a reminder you are the troll. You are the one accusing management of being deceitful and indeed paying service companies to be deceitful as well .
There is likely a simple reason a commercial assessment was omitted from Kodiak. Management have previously highlighted that the reservoir poro/perm data was cut by NSAI to that witnessed in Theta West and therefore any commercial assessment would have been undertaken omitting the up dip portions of the reservoir. Therefore any commercial assessment at this time would have been inaccurate. Interestingly in recent interview Jay IMHO alluded that analogues have been identified which may remove this capping. As Pantheon have discussed in numerous webinars, any flow modelling has been undertaken utilising witnessed poro/perm data. That is recent type curves have been generated using that witnessed in Alkaid 2 vertical topsets/SMD test. Note Pantheon have latterly confirmed the permeability highlighted was the matrix permeability not the frac permeability which you wrongly called out in your blog.
In regards to Ahpun Pantheon have already confirmed SLB are undertaking a development plan for the Ahpun Topsets following concluding the development plan for the deeper Alkaid Zone. Interestingly I note you have already deemed Alkaid non commercial without undertaking any of the work you are asking to be carried out. Ahpun Topsets have a fuller set of data with I believe seven penetrations and one flow test in the 'feather edge' of the reservoir. Pantheon have full core data from the Pipeline State 1 well which is nearer the heart of the reservoir (another point which you were incorrect about in your blog). Therefore they have a fuller set of data which allows SLB to complete the Western Ahpun development plan. We will have to wait in see if the development plan utilises 'not inexpensive' nitrogen for long term gas lift requirements as you suggested in your piece, I suspect not . Pantheon has said they have been sharing all type curve analysis with those in the data room, I would hope the service companies don't adopt your approach of service companies telling you what ever they get paid to.
In regards to Ahpun east the work for this will be completed once they have undertaken an appraisal well. Standard depth of burial modelling supported by 3D seismic suggest that this reservoir is very similar to Willow. However it appears from your blog that you don't believe in the vast amount of evidence supporting reservoir quality getting better as you get shallower both in depth and DMax.
Note, you are not living rent free in my head. Typically bulletin boards work by someone posting comments and others replying and so on. I believe Shareguru22 uses this language as well, perhaps you share the same troll phrase book.
Troughsnout, promotion of inaccurate or misleading information is not clever for a deemed market professional.
You do you but you are treading a thin line.
@Jason
Management specifically told NSAI not to test for commercial considerations in running their Kodiak scenario for recoverable resource. I assume the same is true for Ahpun.
For the trolls on here please explain this sentence. Will Ahpun be assessed with the same omission?
"As requested, we did not perform an economic analysis on these resources; as such the economic status of these resources is undetermined"
How on earth can you have a legitimate IER or CPR without testing the commerciality threshold? Without knowing how many wells, how long laterals, how many frac stages, what to do with the gas, what to do with the water. Imagine the billions of barrels of recoverable resource one could dream up in the onshore US, Canada or elsewhere if cost of wells and other commercial factors were disregarded.
In between making ad hominem attacks perhaps one of the sages on here could address that specific question.
Of course, there is a risk that management my fail to implement its plans. And no one can deny this and they are no fools in Mangrove and wouldn’t been take such risks. Therefore, the trust of the management is becoming pivotal. And if you, as an investor, trust him, then you should stay in business and share with him the risk and bitterness of failure or enjoy the sweetness and joy of victory. I'm one who trust the management and intuitively foresee its brilliant success and our common victory.
Troughsnout,
Pantheon’s homepage says the following about what is expected to be delivered on Ahpun by end of Q1:
“Netherland, Sewell & Associates has been contracted to provide an independent assessment of recoverable resources at the Ahpun project which is expected to be completed during Q1 2024.”
Recoverable resources cannot be estimated without determining commercial quantities. Economics must be considered. 🤷♂️
@Troughsnout,
The lack of an economic analysis for Kodiak is concerning. Did the NS resources report for Aphun also omit an economic analysis?
I’m long the stock, but the risks here are enormous. Anyone shorting the stock is probably better aligned with reality. I’m here because I love home runs and believe in DH.
Brevarthan/Troughsnout - increase your short, I beseech you. Tell Tom and the rest of the unresearched cabal to do the same.
Now then, the whole lse PANR forum awaits your apology and formal withdrawal of your "research" note, dated 26/2/24. A veteran industry professional, olderwiser, has brutally dismantled the note, identifying multiple errors of fact and interpretation. If you retained an ounce of integrity and honour you would have, at the very least, replied to his fact-based rebuttals. But greed, eh? Can't beat 'em, join 'em? The City didn't reward my intellect and classical education so to hell with probity, I'll cheat my way to my rightful financial reward. Ha! You have so much in common with Tom after all. Makes me puke.
Just think, Brevarthan, had one of your former sellside employers published your note they, too, would have had to formally withdraw the note from circulation. Yikes! How you have fallen....a finance professional to amateurish troll.
I do so much love living rent free in your neolithic (yes another lithic!) heads....
In order to establish any kind of funding route outside equity issuance a full CPR meeting PRMS criteria is required that covers not just theoretical resources but a path to commerciality : means of exploitation to commercial return. The current IER approach (whoever undertakes it) doesn't achieve that. I quote from the NSAI report on Kodiak (summary only)
"As requested [Why??], we did not perform an economic analysis on these resources; as such the economic status of these resources is undetermined"
"The resources shown in this report are contingent. upon...acquisition of additional technical data that demonstrate producing rates and volumes sufficient to sustain economic viability across the acreage.."
There are many more caveats. But unless these are addressed in a full CPR by a top auditor like ERCE with demonstrated commerciality then no offtaker or vendor is going to finance a development. That task will be left with the bagholders.
Until then feel free to enjoy reading an IER that says what mgmt want it to say and floats around in cloud cuckoo land...
PS My cleaner wrote this.
Troughsnout has degenerated to a simple minded desperate fool, in futile defense of his short gamble, his pseudo science adviser must have resigned.
Helium is a by product of the liquification process, which requires a clean gas input, scrubbed of non hydrocarbons.
Potentially a cherry on top of the other cherry.
Helium is present because the regional K10 seal, is so effective that even a tiny atom like Helium gets trapped
Troughsnout predicting a pivot to Helium whilst failing to acknowledge that to produce the Helium they need to produce the gas, and to produce the gas they need to produce the oil.
No wonder he doesn't hang about to defend this nonsense.
Troughsnout, your post is classic of the shorting genre. Claim there is massive placings coming up and support with your pseudo science blog updates. You seem to love the word fantasy, it appears right up there with 'heterolithic'.
Here's a few 'fantasies' for you:
Your oil career
Your technical knowledge
Your understanding of gas lift
Your awareness of the Pipeline State data and full core
Your understanding of the permeability calcs from the pressure bomb
Your understanding of the Geomark GOR analysis
Your modelling to disprove the claims you made about the type curves
I could go on but you have shown you are unwilling to defend your pseudo science when its been challenged.
Remember you are the troll.
What an absolute chump you are ….
What a load garbage ..
Conspiracy Conspiracy Conspiracy
Meanwhile your short will implode
This RNS is a classic of the genre. Hopium over an LNG project that has been kicked around for decades and still can't raise the FEED money, more gibberish over fantasy contingent resource reports. As for financing, the offtake financing is now reduced to fantasy land over 2030+ gas via said LNG project (so obviously no money anytime in the next 5-10 years if at all), and the vendor financing isn't really vendor financing at all just some vague language about reducing up front cash requirements and incentives for exceeding [sic] "target service costs"! So more equity inevitably coming shareholders way to keep the ball rolling.
Meanwhile, my spidey senses suggest the next pivot/pump being lined up. David Hobbs is Exec Chairman of Proton Green, a small OTC helium company with $20m of debt, but with some apparent helium production and reserves coming on stream. Steven Looper's helium biz was reverse acquired into a shell OTC company Cyber App and now called Proton Green. Enter one D Hobbs. Suddenly there is mention of helium in PANR's RNS's, not once but twice. Is this the next stage of the PANR story, after the Texas switcheroo in 2016?!.... I see balloons! Back into Proton Green, take on its debt, and raise money OTC in the US on the back of an Alaska helium pump. Pumptastic mate!