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The Pantheon Presentation on 20th April 2021
A promise made by Bob Rosenthal Pantheon's technical director & repeated twice, Theta West upgrade due in 30 days, therefore anytime before Thursday 20th May.
On the day after the presentation I spotted a post thanks to btgman which I think is worth repeating again - makes you think.
btgman 21 Apr '21
The external verification from Baker Hughes is truly staggering and as an endorsement is very hard to argue against. So where should it be?
Canaccord currently sits at risked base 99p based on Alkaid + SMD only OR £1.86 risked for Talitha but this includes nothing for BFF (Theta West)
W H Ireland Risked based valuation sits at 89p but does not include Theta West or Slope Fan
Clearly, in the above, we should expect to see significant upgrades for the zones they currently including and then some fairly substantial upgrades for the inclusion of the Elephant that is Theta West. Let's not forget Leonis, Down dip Alkaid etc
OK, so where do we go with Theta West? I have long held a view that this would be in the 5-10b barrels of oil recoverable and it is good to see Telemachus put forward 9b as a number and I do think this is something we should all be talking about as it is quite simply huge.
In my own valuation based on £5b allowing for dilution farm down/farm out and a 10% probability of success for Theta West, I land at £1.12 for this zone alone. I don't think 10% is the correct factor but it is a number that allows others easily to adjust accordingly. Maybe 5b is too high at this stage but 10% is too low so I am not budging on the £1.12 minimum.
Clearly, we are talking £2+ on the most discounted of valuations at which point. If we were sat at £1 today I would have a view we were massively undervalued. All of the above is risked based so not a blue sky valuation almost where we should be today and still isn't factoring all the other upgrades or Leonis.
Looking forward to the official upgrades in due course but it is a start to kick around.
AIMHO GLA BTG
VAS reporting adds a new dimension to consider, effectively it is another method to predict reservoir parameters, including
estimates for ultimate recovery (EUR). A cross check against well log data that de risks the all important flow rate question.
Expect some in depth on this in the upcoming presentation
https://www.bakerhughes.com/evaluation/surface-logging-services/cuttings-gas-evaluation/volatiles-analysis-service-vas
Mike Smiths linked in, check out the commentary on Talitha
Selected comments to wet the appetite to follow the links
Demonstrating good reservoir quality indicated by large oil loss between our sealed-at-well cuttings versus our washed-and-dried cuttings (caught at the same depth)
Now on to an extensive evaluation of Pantheon’s North Slope acreage from legacy cuttings and cores!!!
Take a look at the investor presentation below to learn more about one of the most important exploration wells on the North Slope and the role that VAS played in it.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6795365820626169856
Thanks Olderwiser - very encouraging.
I liked this bit "Now on to an extensive evaluation of Pantheon’s North Slope acreage from legacy cuttings and cores!!!"
Suggests we have employed Baker Hughes to do a thorough analysis - be interesting to see what it shows up.
Bringing this thread back up the list
Combined with all the other data PANR have released, VAS is worth taking the time to understand. The short version is it can predict flow, by comparing a naturally DE pressured rock chip with one that has its contents mostly preserved, the difference is flow. From that extrapolate field flow.
If you accept VAS as a valid indicator of EUR, then there is reason to also be confident in PANR numbers and expectation of flow rates
On the Baker Hughes site there are a few case studies worth reviewing. Their ability to predict ultimate oil recovery by this method, gives great weight to the Baker Hughes opinion on the Talitha results
Example below
hxxps://www.bakerhughes.com/sites/bakerhughes/files/2020-10/VAS-accurately-predicted-production-laterals-permian-basin-cs.pdf
The VAS cuttings analysis predicted
each of the laterals estimated ultimate
recovery (EUR) at 800,000 barrels
(127,190 m3) before the laterals were
completed and fractured. The total
production rate from both laterals was
3,000 barrels per day (477 m3), with an
customer-revised EUR of 1 million barrels
(based on the collected data). The
EUR expectation from the VAS closely
resembled the estimate made by the
customer based on the production data
00.09 Thankyou so much Olderwiser. I really appreciate your help with the VAS/flow test question and for explaining so well. Tremendous.
It should help other non-oilers too I should think.
Best Wishes.
GS