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Started: stargate, 3 Jun 2024 04:06
Last post: KUMS, 6 Jun 2024 14:43
I have held tightly from last rise when we crossed 300p.
Hopefully we find new bottom before push towards 400p.
Hoping we break out of being range bound soon, and take the next step up.
Bollinger band review, shows the two bands beginning to move apart, meaning increased price volatility. The width between the two Bollinger bands compared with the ATR(average true range), showed ATR, encompassed more than 50% of the difference between the bands, which is often a prelude before volatility expansion. Price target based on previous major rally is 460. The lower Bollinger band eventually turning back up, may well signal a future retracement. A stop loss based below a price trough and not on an even price, is advisable. DYOR.
Lse daily chart, random appearance, but the one year view showing weekly price bars, shows the 6/5/24 weekly bar has contained all following three weeks price up bars. The difference in the last week, is the close broke above the open price of the 6/5/24, down bar. In addition the smaller difference between open and close prices implies accumulation.
A hidden divergence in the RSI(relative strength index) appears to have arisen, where the RSi, is making a much lower low than the sp. This often results, in a reasonably fast price rally. DYOR.
Last post: Xoptimist, 9 May 2024 16:35
Seems to me that we have a lot to be grateful for this past 10 days. After the highs of the covid era and then the inevitable crash we now have good reason to believe the turn around has been succesful as the company smartly transfroms into a CDMO - avoiding biotech R&D risk and with OXB now with a lot of visibility on future earnings based on order book. We have had our first upgrade this week from Investec to BUY with a PT of 366 and more upgrades should be coming. And we have clearly seen existing institutional investors top up and some new ones take a position with volumes last week more than double the norm and on one day triple. (we were blessed that several other institutions which wanted out like Fidelity selling off 4m shares in Feb and March - did so before the strong results last Monday and so most sellers had been cleared out). We are now settling down to a new consolidation with 316 the floor/support and 347 the resistance. I dont expect that to change much over the next quarter unless a) a big institution looks to build a big stake b) we see a big deal announced which is quite possible or c) we get an offer which is unlikely. I expect we trade in this band until the interim results on September 18th and then I see 4,20
I do agree. Only one tree shake yesterday so far. Plenty of buying when it dropped.
400p and who knows if there is big news or M&A then>>>>>>>>>>
Started: Fallingknife1, 3 May 2024 16:14
Last post: Alwaysone, 8 May 2024 15:37
Interesting, if not all the clear to someone that doesn't often read charts.
The price is ignoring it, at this point, but plenty of time for a drop down of course.
I presonally can't see sub £2.95 from here in any pullback. Similar to RR on it's heady rise.
In an uptrend, the lower band can head in any direction, with the exception, of the higher Bollinger band, which generally heads upward. The lower band will tend to go in the same direction as the upper bollinger band, except when volatility and faster upward sp movement happens. It so happens previous fast sp, rise,was sufficient to cause the lower bollinger band to fall. Retracement measurements, are usually Fibonacci, with 38.2% to 50% of the previous bottom to top price difference used. DYOR.
What do you mean here.
Losing downward momentum is good no?
I do think retracement is likely soon anyway
“volatility based Bollinger lower band, is losing downward momentum, signalling probability that price retracement”
Sp, is churning in price range of last few days, and volatility based Bollinger lower band, is losing downward momentum, signalling probability that price retracement, is soon. Previous congestion levels, imply potential retracement between 187-300. A healthy equity can be expected to retrace between 38.2% to 50%, of an advance. Next sp, target, is 400. DYOR.
Nice.
Started: Alwaysone, 2 May 2024 19:19
Last post: kernowlad, 3 May 2024 14:58
I'm still here enjoying the ride though am still 50% down so want it to keep climbing!
There certainly seems a different vibe to it with the relatively new management and plan so long may it continue.
Unfortunately none of my other biotechs are even showing these promising signs so they are still in the doldrums.
At this rate, they might be forced to do a speeding ticket, even though it was well underpriced prior.
This it the RNS for me, that was a game changer just prior to the results.
Even RR had to start its recovery somewhere...
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OXB/update-on-cdmo-services-kkuod0ei8hi7occ.html
20 Mar 2024 07:00
RNS Number : 4894H
Oxford Biomedica PLC
20 March 2024
Oxford Biomedica Provides Update on CDMO Services Including New Commercial Agreement
- New and expanded contracts highlight commercial momentum across all viral vector types
- OXB now working on multiple late-stage programmes with its portfolio of client programmes progressing to later stage work
Oxford, UK - 20, March, 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica", "OXB" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, today provides an update on its CDMO services activity.
Year to date, Oxford Biomedica has experienced consistently strong demand for its CDMO services across all key viral vector types, with its portfolio of client programmes transitioning towards later stage work. As a result of commercial developments set out below, OXB is now working on three late-stage programmes.
Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.
Alongside this, Oxford Biomedica has signed two new programmes with existing clinical-stage clients for projects including Process Development and GMP manufacturing.
Furthermore, the Company has signed a new agreement with a US-based client specialising in cardiac gene therapy for the tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture of an adeno-associated virus-based process (AAV).
Under the terms of these agreements, Oxford Biomedica will receive payments related to the development and manufacturing of viral vectors for use in clinical trials in addition to certain development and regulatory milestone payments. These payments will support the Company in achieving its medium-term financial guidance announced on 5 March 2024.
Dr Sébastien Ribault, Chief Commercial Officer of Oxford Biomedica, commented: "The signing of a late-stage programme, alongside the continued expansion of existing agreements since the start of 2024, demonstrates clients' confidence in OXB's ability to deliver process development and GMP manufacturing services. Our Business Development team continues to experience strong demand for process characterisation, validation, and process performance qualification (PPQ) work, showcasing the high quality and reliability of our services. This demand is in line with our forecasts across all key vectors and geographies, validating our growth strategy. We remain confident about our future prospects as the leading global pure-play CDMO in cell and gene therapy and our ability to continue building our c
Started: KUMS, 3 May 2024 12:46
Last post: KUMS, 3 May 2024 12:46
Could keep on climbing.
Started: Alwaysone, 2 May 2024 13:06
Last post: Alwaysone, 3 May 2024 10:41
Broken and looks like blue skies now as little resistance.
Thanks. I do look at ADFN daily as well.
Try ADVFN…Plenty of chat over there. Not sure whether this board is perhaps still in a state of shock after the horrendous past couple of years.
After a 50% rise this month -- will be interesting to see.
So quiet on this BB. Seems a lot of invididual investors are not following this one.
Started: Fallingknife1, 22 Apr 2024 11:45
Last post: Alwaysone, 30 Apr 2024 15:02
ABL Europe could be buying shares of course
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2024/01/29/2818732/0/en/Oxford-Biomedica-completes-acquisition-of-ABL-Europe.html
Off we go again, another late rise
The small breakout has now solidified and the results taken well. Been a good few days for me - for a change!
Et voila! *** Takes a bow ****
A small breakout at last it seems, has taken some time and patience
Started: David6576, 29 Apr 2024 15:31
Last post: David6576, 29 Apr 2024 15:31
Added up.
Started: David6576, 29 Apr 2024 15:29
Last post: David6576, 29 Apr 2024 15:29
1515p to such a drop is unjustified.
Started: stargate, 29 Apr 2024 15:26
Last post: stargate, 29 Apr 2024 15:26
Overhead supply from previous trading at 241.5. The sp, at 250, is above the resistance level, of 241.5, thus reversing the resistance level to become support. The only obvious remaining overhead supply area, is at 300, so that is the projected price target for profit. The underlying sector is bullish, providing general support to OXB. DYOR.
Started: Fallingknife1, 13 Mar 2024 14:48
Last post: kernowlad, 15 Mar 2024 15:30
Back to where we were before the announcement. That burst of optimism didn't last long.
Bought more as well to reduce my average to £6.44. Very much doubt I will see that again. Should have sold when Shatter did or better still at £15!
When will I learn?
Pretty steep for a company that looks like it is in recovery mode! Maybe profit taking after the recent jump? I am still a buyer.
Started: Xpublican, 10 Mar 2024 12:27
Last post: 404x, 11 Mar 2024 09:02
It's a bit of a shame OXB sold off their best asset, the site they owned. Novo acquired Catalent in the US for a big premium largely for their manufacturing capacity.
Started: jackdaw99, 6 Mar 2024 11:43
Last post: jackdaw99, 6 Mar 2024 11:43
Looks like the market is struggling to find those willing to sell.
Started: paulwhite82, 2 Feb 2024 19:02
Last post: hopeabound, 5 Mar 2024 13:34
Yep, but going in the right direction. I only bought in this last week. Hopefully, there will be a steady rise but it is a long-term hold, which should reap decent returns by end of 2025.
This looks like good news though there is still a long way to go but b/e next year hopefully means an increasing sp instead of the perpetual drops we have been getting..
Still holding.
I might correct you there. Cutting edge science is what drives biotechnological and medical R&D forward. OXB used to be in the perfect spot where their manufacturing could have financed their internal product development. Imagine if they had invested the vaccine money into the next CAR-T therapy without having the need to knock on the door of VCs. Now it is a stagnating business, they can only make money if other companies investing in cutting edge science bring them something to make. They are also competing with much bigger and more established lentiviral product manufactures, that can probably do it faster, cheaper and better.
Cutting edge research is all well and good but doesn’t pay the bills. The vaccine was a one off ( hopefully) but it may take years and some thought to make this company profitable !
You can also generate CAR-T cells in the body without the need of transfusion. OXB seemed to have the technology to do both but decided to become a pure play CDMO. They can no longer innovate, they only do what clients require. They chose pure revenue instead of investing on cutting edge research, and in my opinion that is what the share price reflects.
Started: Rodez, 15 Feb 2024 12:36
Last post: PlunderEurasia, 26 Feb 2024 21:54
Money and Science, I was just making this point with my friend over the phone, OXB under Dawson before 2020, had a drug discovery group that was outlicensing clinical stage vectors for millions, a cell line and vilral vector development group, process innovation team and a profitable manufacturing CDMO. You wouldn't imagine that version of OXB with Dawson would be where it is today if we skipped the Astra Zeneca vaccine saga because they were already headed places.
Does not seem the case. However, it makes me wonder why they have gone through such a big restructuring to then perform significantly worse than the previous management. The previous team had a successful delivery of the vaccine, was bringing in clients and supporting world-class R&D. Now that they are a pure-play CDMO, they only seem to be able to sink the share price.
Is there a large deal coming?
Started: paulwhite82, 29 Jan 2024 15:26
Last post: TheTrotsky, 29 Jan 2024 18:01
Have you actually given any consideration to the number of people who would need to be treated? In all likelihood you'd be long dead before your turn in the queue came around! Current CAR-T treatments are not only expensive but also use a lot of hospital resources; patients currently have a risk/recovery period of 2-3 months and it's not uncommon for them to have to be admitted to hospital throughout because the treatment can impair their immune systems (it may cure their cancer but in the "change over" period they can be susceptible to other diseases).
I'm not saying that the research is without merit but, unless they can come up with a pill or an injection, the pure logistics, let alone the economics, of the existing procedures make a mass roll-out unfeasible. Furthermore, OXB is about the delivery system rather than the treatment itself (if you like, OXB provides the inhaler not the drug) and unless the drug makers can come up with a means to swap out the T-cells without the need for a "transfusion" (the reason that they have to remove the old T-cells before replacing them with the new T-cells is because they can't "co-habit") and the consequential hospital stay then the type of delivery system becomes a fairly mute point.
The existing treatment just can't handle millions of patients each year, let alone tens of millions, hundreds of millions or even billions; it's not (necessarily) the cost of the treatment that is the ultimate stumbling block but the time (2-3 months per patient) and resources needed (individually tailoring the treatment for each patient, hospitals, beds etc.).
Finally, and it shouldn't be ignored, no drug company is going to pursue this because if it achieved all of its aims it might ultimately put them out of business! You only have to look at the treatment for stomach ulcers to see that this is true; for decades drug companies refused to accept evidence that stomach ulcers were caused by bacteria in the gut and that some, if not all, of them could (potentially) be cured by a simple, one-off dose of antibiotics because they were making £billions from ulcer drugs (such as Zantac) that tackled the symptoms rather than the cause.
If this new treatment pans out from mice to humans, it will quickly become a game changer regaudless of the cost of each treatment, the first treated will be the very rich like gates and musk, buffet and if Trump and Biden are still around when human trials are over, my point is the super rich will be first to bring this to market before the big US health insurance companies follow to reduce their ongoing costs of age related costs which are in the trillions of dollars, and then others would follow, but make no mistake should this pan out the savings alone to our own NHS and social care system would be staggering when you remove the age related costs?
RE:/CAR-T treatments are individually tailored and, as I understand, involve removing an individual's existing T-cells and replacing them with altered T-cells
Started: paulwhite82, 28 Jan 2024 12:41
Last post: TheTrotsky, 28 Jan 2024 15:01
I'm not so sure. CAR-T treatments are individually tailored and, as I understand, involve removing an individual's existing T-cells and replacing them with altered T-cells (essentially using a process similar to a blood transfusion). It's never going to be feasible to do this on a large scale.
Started: formerlyeasyp, 4 Dec 2023 08:55
Last post: Alwaysone, 2 Jan 2024 16:21
PRTC holding up well today also...
I had a look at the PRTC, chart and comments about fundamentals, are impressive, notice there was a highest volume day for 10 months, and RSI(relative strength index) is very oversold. Unless overhead supply, from previous trading at 200, slows rally, PRTC, could easily get to 222, notwithstanding the fundamental value, which is a lot higher.
I agree on the Sector breaking out, helped no doubt by the potential cut to interest rates. PRTC has done well also this week ( some news helped though)
Sector chart breaking out, upwards, and similar breaking out phase with OXB. Sector was the leading sector, today on a fall in the market index, so a show of strength by the sector. The largest percent risers , mostly have large equity spreads of 7-11, so that brought me to OXB, which I would consider a buy.
After deliberating far too long, I bought in this morning. Hope not the kiss of death ….
Started: anyoneforcricket, 11 Dec 2023 16:21
Last post: anyoneforcricket, 11 Dec 2023 16:21
The odds of this must be increasing with SP at these levels……personally would welcome it assuming a decent premium
Started: shatter, 24 Nov 2023 09:47
Last post: betterlife, 27 Nov 2023 11:54
Shatter,
There is nothing for income from oxb , they are burning big cash every month now . The vaccine was good for them that is why it went over £15.50 I used buy and sell around £7.70 in 2020 .
It is only 26p from my target now .
Better life…interested to know why you think the magic number is £1.50 ?
On my watch list , if it gets anywhere near £1.50 , I will buy ££50k worth but not yet .
Does slightly take the shine off all those director buys recently. With 40% of the award based on share price performance at least that's one chunk they're unlikely to be gifted. The other big chunk being purely revenue based is a bit discomforting though, that can always be juiced if bottom line not taken into account.
You couldn’t make it up ! “The LTIP awards are subject to performance conditions. As set out in the 2022 Directors' Remuneration Report, the performance condition is based on TSR (40% of the award, assessed over the three years from grant); revenue growth (40% of the award, assessed over financial years 2023, 2024 and 2025) and strategic milestones (20% of the award)”.
Started: shatter, 23 Nov 2023 10:34
Last post: shatter, 23 Nov 2023 22:44
Could it be that this is a loss making company and profit is not exactly around the corner. Cash burn is always a concern ! Due to the complexity of their finances anyone know what’s in the bank ?
Over the years I've seen OXB crash like this several times but they always bounced back after a surprise bail out package however they are not bouncing yet, so this one looks a bit odd. I will need to read their next financial report to get a better understanding why this time is different but my suspicion is they can't afford the extra cash burn from OXB US, there also used to be a subsidiary in the US in the past but they were also closed down due to running costs 🤔
Can anyone please clarify how many shares Vulpes has sold in the last few months?
It’s going to take one hell of a Santa rally to stop the rot here… what are the management doing?
Weird thing is Novo stake building should have compensated, Vulpes tiny players in comparison. But with it being a decade long hold for them, they must have been aware optics more significant than the average II here, especially if they're selling into multi year lows.
Could be worse though, at obd they've gone for a maddening drip drip selling strategy with gradual release RNSs, almost as if it was designed to maximise a fall. Looks terrible when they have a board seat. But I'm assuming they're either facing a pretty urgent need to liquidate, or having seen a fortune evaporate post-covid, no longer give a sh*t. Maybe both.
Unless of course they do know how it looks and are taking what they can when they can.
Still holding as the loss for me would be very large and hopefully the new people can pull some thing out of the bag.
It's been carnage here, considered buying in a few times into what look likes a bottom but fall pretty relentless. Wonder if it's still Vulpes selling. As with OBD having held so long for them to start selling recently is hard to make sense of. Unless they're forced sellers they must know how it looks.
Still seems to be a large seller offloading for whatever reason !
Started: shatter, 21 Nov 2023 18:09
Last post: shatter, 21 Nov 2023 18:09
unfortunately the proposed business change in direction is going to take a considerable time, if it indeed works, so not sure where the sp is going to end up in the meantime. the bod have made a few strange decisions over the last year with ****logy being one !
just when you think the sp has started to level out it drops again so can’t see any new money coming in to stop the rot. calling bottom is impossible at the moment and it would seem that the market has very little faith in the bod.
Last post: shatter, 3 Nov 2023 14:50
Hi Kern,
As you say the consolidation was supposed to put an end to these swings and unfortunately one sunny day doesn’t make a summer. Mainly in banks and Aviva at the moment but they are also dropping like a stone on the mere hint of anything negative. Santa rally seems unlikely this year the way the world is !
Shatter
it's inexorable so yes I can't see why it won't fall below £2.
The boost from the last announcement is long gone as we don't see any progress. Give them time of course but the market seems to have made up its mind.
Remember the consolidation was supposed to put an end to these wild swings but £15 to just over £2 is pretty wild in my eyes.
OXB not the only one to be decimated as Angle went from £1.50 to 11p when the CEO rubbished the company and the pi's.
All biotecs languishing atm as it is an unloved sector so companies need results to change the sp direction not just aspirations and words.
This is being deliberately dropped, perhaps shorted, but when you get so many small sells all occurring in the same second week after week something is array. Every share has its ups and downs and is usually news driven but this is ridiculous.