Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Another three percent up today, nice
Nice to see a decent lift up today. US markets no doubt helped
Gazzboo - If there will be one, I hope the advert will be less chavvy than last year
BTW - advertising cost has to go down, last year it weight too heavily on profits
I have added a few more shares today - I like to buy on statue days.
Does OTB have plans to offer holiday packages from continental Europe as well? That may boost profits many folds.
OTB heavily relies on budget airlines for their holiday package offerings. They should be more mindful with the wording used in their announcements to keep good relations with their business partners.
Good to note that litigation has been determined in the case of Ryanair.
My uncle got his 80 birthday cruise holiday cancelled. He was planning to "set sails" from somewhere in the Middle East, not sure about the itinerary. Reason being political instability.
The holiday was not booked with OTB of course, but the mishap sparked a doubt in my mind. Could any of the holiday packages offered by OTB be affected by the Israeli war?
Does anyone have data on the profile of the customer base of OTB?
Are they people that can be affected by the rise of interest rates and cost of living to a grater extent than average?
The positive is that OTB is looking to premiumize its offering, which I assume targets the upper crust, which should suffer the least from the impact of macros, but I am under the impression that most customers are mortgage-paying families with young kids (which is not good for OTB in the current macros).
Ale
If OTB hits £20m PTB a dividend of 5% could be easily paid out (also considering the £60mln cash at the bank) and no long term liabilities. That will easily double the share price
Exactly! in this era of high interest, debt free plus with all the great updates and positive news you mentioned there is no justification this share is trading at this price. It bounds to catch investors eye once all this Jam tomorrow but laden with pile load of debts highly speculative company loses steam completely which they should be. I will keep holding it until then
Think the market knows hence the valuation price. Who’s going on holiday when they can’t pay the bills?
What I like about OTB is not that winter bookings are up 26% on this time last year, or booking values have risen 10%, or that there are no short positions, or that management have purchased almost 2.5 million shares this quarter or that analysts have a 163% average upside on the stock value, but for me the fact that this company is debt free is a massive up-side.
Fingers crossed next stop for OTB is 105p
You were saying Mr Smith ?
Bookings up 26%
Where is this stock heading ?
Number one stock for me (No Brainer)
On The Beach said bookings for holidays in October and November are up 26% compared with a year ago. Some 58% of UK adults are considering or definitely going on holiday in that period, a survey commissioned by the travel retailer suggested. Zoe Harris, chief customer officer at On The Beach, said: "We all know that this summer has been a complete washout and according to our booking data it looks as though holidaymakers are searching for the last bit of sun."
The '90s recession..... around the time when interest rates were not far off current VAT levels. It is just that these days borrowings are actually out of control. Enough of politics.
Whether we like it or not we have better medicines and higher standards of living than in the previous decades. And as we seem to be in an age of communication so the prospect to actually visit locations outside our normal geography gets more affordable, so travel, or rather leisure will expand. I have added to my holding today. Time will determine the folly or wisdom
i believe it was the md or one of the directors of easy jet was being interviewed on bloomberg over the weekend who was saying the market is predicting nothing but doom and gloom but in reality bookings are up 10% on this time last year, and forward bookings for next years holiday season was robust. he also said there would be an market up-date at some point. i'm old enough to remember the 1990's recession and even back then the holiday market remained buoyant because of the importance of having a break. the ****tier life gets the more you need a holiday. its worth considering that the cheaper the stock gets the more sensitive it becomes to price fluctuations. you think you can pile into a dip but everybody dose the same and the price bounces before you get anything worth having. try not to worry all sorts of stocks are having issues at this time. what's out of favour this week will be in favour next week.
So is the new war in Mid/east having a bad impact on Many of the travel shares and will it get worse.?
Could these go down to 95p ish
Bullish price pivot break today, accompanied by price pivot break in the travel sector chart , providing confirmation. Also 3 line bullish break at same time. The long term down trendline from January 2023, is no longer intact, so Bullish . There is an up trendline from August 2023, which is intact and recent pivot low touched the uptrend line. My sp, projection, is 120, which is close to the descending upper Bollinger band, and also in the vicinity of overhead supply, from trading volume at a similar price level. I am not expecting a fast price movement because the two Bollinger bands are contracting rather than separating .
Central Bankers' annual meeting in Jackson Hole is the ideal place for Forward Guidance; one of the four main tools available for setting monetary policy. It is 'simply' a verbal intervention. Mario Draghi is thought to be among the firsts who deeply understood its impact and used it effectively.
The Big-Three Central Bankers (Japan is excluded) were aligned and their message to the market participants was somehow intimidating. "We'll keep the interest rates higher, for longer", they said. The unspoken words were: "This is your last chance! Adjust now or ...".
It seems, since that meeting in August, that the market participants (companies, institutional investors, etc) and both the "Buy" and "Sell" side, got the message and suspended for a while their 'fighting/doubting-the-Fed' behaviour.
"Higher for longer" indicates that we might be in a turning point now which is not fully visible yet, but what can be said with some certainty is that we've entered into a 5% (Risk-Free) world. This affects, mainly, two things...
1) Debt. I believe OTB is well positioned to weather the storm. It has minimum debt and not in need to refinance it at the current interest rates. Also, I understand that there are no plans in the foreseeable future to issue any debt. The management's decision to have a 'light balance sheet' (no long-term fixed assets, such as airplanes ...and the direct risks associated with the fuel) might pay-off in the near future. This higher cost of capital (ie the end of free-money) puts OTB in an advantageous position relative to its industry peers as it does not rely on debt to operate and expand.
2) Discount Rate. Here, I believe that OTB is not well positioned to weather the storm (as most other companies). The discount rate used by market participants to assess the present value of the future cashflows (net earnings, etc) has definitely adjusted to a higher rate, meaning that the cashflows suddenly worth less in today's money. Based on pure logic, a new price level (downwards) has to be discovered to reflect a more accurate/balanced representation of OTB's fair value in this 5% world. Since OTB had just 1% net margin for FY22 (net income/total revenue), this puts them in a vulnerable position. The situation is very tight, no room to wiggle, the low net income became tiny. The market has spoken, it is now up to the ability of OTB's management to deliver some convincing results. I know I would be convinced with an at least 6% net margin for FY23. Btw, for FY19 it was at 11%. If less than 6%, then I should expect and be ready for further losses in my position.
---
Oops!
.." relevant to Digger Dave's recent comments .." should read as ".. relevant to Digger Dave's/ Alas _Smith's recent comments..." of course.
Apols to both.
"There seems to be a media blackout over here to protect the markets, but there is a story on Reuters..."
Somewhat off-topic (OTB) but relevant to Digger Dave's recent comments re investment choices.
Energy consumption is a proxy for economic development, and 'energy' is still largely hydrocarbon-related.
There's a gap between what the politicians and Western media say - a promise to double down on their commitments to all things green- and the economic and geopolitical reality : 10 days after all the glad-handing (and triumphant headlines in the West) over the recently-concluded G 20 summit in India, we get this , for some reason overlooked by the mainstream media :
hxxps://www.constructionworld.in/energy-infrastructure/coal-and-mining/india-plans-40--more-coal-use-in-thermal-power/4463
Come again ?
India plans 40% more coal use in thermal power
21 Sep 2023
According to the statement made by RK Singh, Power Minister, it was revealed that India intends to increase its thermal power capacity by additional 25-30 gigawatts (GW) in addition to the 49 GW of coal-based units that are currently under construction. Consequently, upon the completion of these projects, the country is expected to consume an extra 292 million tonnes (MT) of coal on an annual basis.
It is known that 3.5-4 MT of coal is required to generate 1,000 megawatts (MW) of power at a plant load factor (PLF) ranging from 65% to 75%, which aligns with the Indian average. Considering the coal consumption of 3.7 MT for each GW, this new plan will result in a 38% increase in total coal consumption compared to the current levels.
As of March 2023, India's coal-based power generation capacity stood at 212 GW,, with projections indicating that it will reach 260 GW by 2030. If the additional 30 GW capacity is indeed constructed, India is poised to possess around 290 GW of coal power by 2030.
As the article drily notes "The power minister's announcement was somewhat unexpected, especially in light of the recent G20 declaration led by India, which emphasized ambitious goals related to green energy... "
My Dad's investment basis was reduced to 'all the P's' - power, pills, pints, pounds - and it worked for him !
NAI and ATB
I am stunned we are not back to £3, let alone £2!