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DiggerDave, I have no idea if this helps, but investing is supposed to be preparing the foundation for the point when there will be reliance on capital where, based on market performance, assurance of return allows comfortable retirement without worrying about income. We also know that the historic return from investments listed in London, New York, Hong Kong etc are and we also know what the historic yield that long term investing provides for investors. The broad rule of thumb for investors is that expectation is for capital to double every 10 years (8% return).
We don't actually know for certain which companies will double their market capital so we need to have a solid foundation of companies that don't have much change to their market cap but just generate dividends, something boring like LGEN. Next we need to look at the world and take a stab as to what is going to be needed for the present and the future. Food, medicine and technology. Now, food is fickle and is at the mercy of weather, war and distribution, so buying seed merchants is out but buying tractor makers will always be sensible. John Deere is the market leader.
People are getting older so they live and need medicine, so a pharmaceutical company should be in focus. We all need housing, some is rented and others need either to be build or repaired. Timber, aggregate and steel builds the structure but copper provides the wiring and plumbing. Copper is needed for cars and next generation motoring. This means that miners and lumber should be represented in a portfolio.
Anyway...... we can on on with this tack for a book, but what is the argument to own shares in OTB? Well, for me it is for capital growth. I have the foundation covered and that provides 8% capital growth with 1.3% thrown off in addition as dividends. That brings my return to 9.3% BUT my average long term growth has been 13.5%. How come? Well, there is some speculation - not all of these investments come good. Begbies, (bought 18 months ago) an accountancy business dealing in insolvency which should be flying, is at lows so 80% holding sold recently.
Interest rates have usually been at current levels (and were for 60 or so years to 2007) so I have no reason to doubt that there will be little change over the next 2 years or so, but is uncomfortable for some, but people will always want to travel. I am hoping that the bespoke end of travel will be the driver of profits but transitioning from the bucket and spade brigade is tricky. Fortunately competition is contracting in current market.
Why fortunately? Well, this actually is quite a well run business and at present levels provides very attractive entry price PROVIDED the market cap improves. I believe it will, but to hedge my bets I've bought shares in Google as people shop around for a bargain
Traditionally drawing 3% from portfolio provides for
We all thought back in June that the US debt ceiling had been sorted "WRONG"
The US congress needs to agree next years expenditure by October 1st this Sunday. If they cant agree the spending bill the US government will suffer a partial shutdown. If you want to know why the market is suffering look across the pond.
The standoff has begun to attract the attention of ratings agencies, with both Moody's and Fitch warning it could damage the federal government's credit-worthiness.
There seems to be a media blackout over here to protect the markets, but there is a story on Reuters.
Good luck all
Down 13% in 5 days . Worrying me again.
Sell in May and go away
September is always a bad month
Definitely needing a bit of momentum with my portfolio. IAG and OTB seem to be always stuck at the bottom
Hope so Smithy. Understand the September b*ll*x yes. My portfolio has been battered during this dreadful month again!
Let's hope this is all it is...!
MikeBarso - there was a run on the pound yesterday which affects foreign exchange.
September is usually a poor month (well, has been for me over the decades) but October, November, December and January tend to be the most favourable for investors everywhere.
Can anyone explain (excl the sh11t-4-brains current market conditions obviously), why this stock is performing so so badly?
Well, I cannot pretend for a moment, Allesandro that I agree with you - where I have some resentment towards the public sector it is in the extremely generous and indexed retirement package. But that, sadly, IMO is the fault of self serving Politicians
Many (but not most) of public sector "workers" are just a burden on the country.
Macro economics in a defunct UK. The UK markets are screwed the country effectively bankrupt. All we have left is public sector workers and needy benefit populous. We are stuffed. Danger is for this company the majority get jealous and stop the fun for the people propping this economy up. It’s being discussed “reduce travel, control expenditure” hence the slide
Why the retrace ?
Glad I’m in this.. plenty of cash coming on - we all now pay for our holidays upfront … Mr Buffet did well with his first acquisition because everyone paid for the insurance premiums upfront… same old same old
The short position is no longer notifiable, so under 0.5%
News determines long term direction, liquidity of shares short term movement.
£3
that'll do nicely - seems a no brainer for the time being.
On The Beach shares mispriced,says Peel Hunt.Target 300p
Yesterday’s full-year trading update from On The Beach (OTB) proved to Peel Hunt that shares in the package holiday group are ‘mispriced’.
Analyst Ivor Jones reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 300p on the Citywire Elite Companies + rated stock, which was trading at 120p on Wednesday.
He said the group has ‘invested heavily in growth in the first half 2023 and it has paid off’, with estimates that summer booking will be 11% ahead year-on-year, and winter 26% ahead, more than the 21% reported by peer Jet2 (JET2).
Jones’ 2023 profit before tax forecasts remain at the top of range, and he predicts earnings growth of 40% in 2024, which he said is ‘stretching but achievable’.
‘We estimate On The Beach will have £73m of cash at year-end and no debt,’ he said. ‘It can use that cash to drive growth in full-year 2024 as it did in full-year 2023. Investors can now be confident in the payback.’
As i mentioned on here a few weeks back. this is a great little earner. I've been in & out of this a good few times. A wonderful stock. Great little company this & every time it fluctuates to the downside is an opportunity to make a chunk of dosh. I' m holding for a while this time though as that TU was very positive. !st slice off when it hits the 150!
Hello everyone I registered today and bought in to this company today. I like the RNS today and think the prospects going forward will be positive.
On about 9 times forward earnings, but ex cash it's half that, no debt, strong revenue growth...it's undervalued, not selling
"[...] But I can't think of selling that stock", said old Partridge.
"You can't?" asked Elmer.
"No, I can't."
"Why not?".
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
"But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress, "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be? When you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me [i.e.: Jesse Livermore] until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well..., you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: after spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you that it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
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Guess some have been burnt but this is pure gold imho. Topped up all the way down and will release on the way up but plenty to come still.
Not understanding why people are selling based on forward projection this could fly past £3 by end of year. It has lots of forward momen
Cracking update and what I had hoped for. Should push on from here.
And that interest rate ain’t going anywhere FREE MONEY for foreseeable
Debt free and earning high interest.
Dare we hope for a dividend?
Excellent update.
Decent RNS which has been well received. Hopefully the short position will soon no longer be noted.