Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Dear Mr Cathal Friel, Thanks for working your nuts off for the last 18 months, Can you buy some more shares now please? Cheers.
Yours faithfully, Northseatiger1
GLAGLTH
Why did we go to court in May to get dividends re-instated ?...exactly..........maybe we'll will be getting a surprise dividend....cheer up you miserable bugge#rs....:-)
Because on your #'s OO core business is overvalued..
what about revenues for the second lab across the road? what about revenue from the gov contract? what about testing revenue?
I'll go -£1.5m for the year but would really like to see a £0.1m profit just to get that tick box on the various sites that assess company values vs their share price.
I would, however, echo sentiments that the forward looking statement plus any other info nuggets is more important
Blah..were in the middle of a Pandemic..
Last years comparisons are irrelevant..
Lets suppose for a second my name is CF and I'm a massive shareholder in this company and i'm trying not to make any money....does that sound daft?????? Well exactly....what's with all this doom and gloom today????
If Ricky is right, -£3.5m represents a huge turnaround of two loss making companies, with the prospect of big and growing profits, for the first time, going forward. You don't need to be hyper-optimistic about the results to see value at the current price.
Why would you sell a Company that is emerging from its first year (profitable in Q4) and likely to be much more profitable this year with the spin off bonuses???? - you need to look forward not backwards
Still not clear what your estimate is Bronx. Seems like you are relying entirely on CF saying £19m revenue in second half, but with much higher costs? How does that translate into annual profit or loss, in your opinion?
Well we dont have long to wait to find out
I'd hoover some up at 25p
GLA
Well if Ricky's #'s are right I've got 1.2mill. to sell.
And I'll take anything above 25p
agree Ricky. There will definitely be a YE 2020 loss as £5m loss for H1. Anything between -£2m and -£4m i'd guess. Hopefully at the lower end.
Results will be 6 months old and ORPH has changed so much - 2021 guidance and forward looking statement will be the critical section for me
Indeed; the level of flapping, self doubt and ignorance is hitting new highs [and long winded meaningless guff]
He also says they would have been profitable in the 3rd quarter except that they spent more than expected on developing the Covid challenge study..
I think the sellers have forgotten about what happened with EKF - with RENX (now worth c$1bn ; then VRCI which is doing very well and Trellus (just off to a fine start after recent IPO)) all freebies from the EKF / Mt Sinai collaboration which CF uses to illustrate ORPH's potential. Here, ORPH is giving out freebies and selling shareholders are treating rather disdainfully which IMO begs belief.
Cathal Friel said on a number of occasions that annual Laboratory revenues for Hvivo are £38 million but Hvivo never had the lab full.
I just listened back to what he said in July that Laboratory was booked for the rest of 2020.
Annual revenues of £38m - how much fell into H2 2020 - probably not that much
It's unclear what you mean Bronx, but I'm guessing you are claiming £19m revenue in Q4, presumably cost free, since you haven't mentioned any? So that would give a full year profit of around £12m, in your estimation?
Agree Blah and this year could easily see £10 - £15m and with a growth PE multiple of 30 + that would justify a price of 55p plus. In addition we have the windfalls from spin offs and we are starting to move towards the £1+ target which is in keeping with $Billion valuation
Blah blah..
Laboratory annual revs 38 million annually!
What's half of 38?
Sounds reasonable Ricky, giving full year results of about -£3.5m. I think that's more or less what the market expects, and anything better would be a bonus. Jasonsax is absolutely correct - only profitable in the last quarter, surprised all holders aren't aware of that. CF said, a while ago, that some people might be "pleasantly surprised", which could just be his usual optimism, but if true suggests a very strong fourth quarter reducing the loss a bit more. Anyone looking for a profit must interpret "profitable in Q4" as meaning a sudden dramatic turnaround which reverses 9 months of losses in a single quarter - not impossible, but hardly realistic.
im just basing it on the often stated from CF that it was 'profitable in Q4' inferring it wasnt in Q3 so across H2 as a whole i expect it to be a small profit with costs being largely fixed comes back to the kind of numbers Ricky mentioned.
Personally i dont see the 2020 results as important at all as all the action is after that period ended and thats what drives the valuation now.
Whats much more important in the results statement is how much info CF gives on current year outlook and whether he quotes any guidance numbers
Ricky ,Jason if you are right I'm not sure why you're long OO because your scenario implies the share is overvalued..
i think youre about right Ricky. Lot of people are going to be disappointed with the actual numbers after confusing orders with revenue. I doubt if there was much impact from the orders signed in late 2020 . Its a long time ago now and much has happened since so this years interims will be much more interesting
Not sure about H2 revenue but I predict a H2 profit of £8.5million. This would create distributable profits of €38,388k as disclosed in the RNS of 13/04/21.