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Pretty much agree with all of that Shandypants !!
CF certainly had his faults but he certainly knew how to get things moving SP wise! Yes he was very over optimistic, but that's standard in the AIM world. I still believe this is an awesome stock, huge growth market, growing margins, growing revenue, growing pipeline, next to no competition, there really is nothing to not like about this stock.
What I'm struggling with is the 2023 top line view, why is growth all of a sudden coming to a standstill?? We're set to do £50m this year, but only £55m next year - of which most of this is already booked so we are told. What vexes me considerably is how this reconciles to the £80m weighted pipeline. So this weighted pipeline is what they expect to win, its not the absolute number, this may be £120m or more. But if most of the £55m is already booked into next year, where is the £80m of expected new revenue ? Or is the pipeline now so far into the future that its mainly beyond 2023. To me, this doesn't add up unless I'm missing something blindingly obvious???? I really don't see how we only move up £5m in a year when we have £80m weighted pipeline. I'm all for under promising and over delivering but this is verging on ridiculous. I'm a LTR and expect to hold this 2-3 years, I fully expect we will end up north of 50p within that timeline. CF will land the spin-offs when the time is right, he knows what he's doing, I have no doubt about that. DYOR.
Knows what he’s doing re spins off?! Last time I checked Poolbeg, that was still a disaster
Spot on seen right' since Pool beg spin off both OO and PB been in free fall. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
GC - Contract order book stands at over £80mln — almost three times the value of the order book during the same period FY2021. It's business already signed up, not expected to be signed up. You need to read the reports.
DYOR
"CF certainly had his faults but he certainly knew how to get things moving SP wise!"
That's because he talked complete and utter crap with his fanciful ambitions of grandure. Of course people were going to buy believing him when he said it was going to be a billion dollar company.
I think CF just gets a bit carried away when he talks. And unfortunately, it can go against you/the company when things do not go as well as planned....as we have seen over the past 18 months or so.
But, there is a alot going for ORPH and given time, I think we can see the SP recovering to the late-20s but we are looking at 2-3 years from now in my view. If we get taken over, then I don't think it will be a bad thing....
DYOR
Sadly the company lost a huge amount of credibility with CFs statements and claims. The name change and NASDAQ listing is fiddling while Rome burns. Waste of time.
Very little upside potential. Spin offs disappeared, no chance of dividends, rising costs, tight margins, limited chance to scale, etc. DYOR beware of those pumping this. 5p anyone??
This share has become a complete dogs dinner & CF can't spin it any other way. Too much blarney stone, lesson learned. As Stockopedia says a sucker stock.
Bob - let’s just check your comments
Spin offs & divis - too early to dismiss
Rising costs - down from £21m to £16.5m
Tight margins - EBITDA margin increased from 9.5% to 12.8%
Can’t scale - last year grown 70% + this year 25%+
When you say Dyor - have you done any??
SeenRight84 - I assume you mean a disaster in terms of SP performance? That is outside of the company's control and determined by supply/demand of the stock. Given market conditions over the past 12 months, it is clear to me that external factors and the general movement of PIs out of pharma stocks have driven the SP down during this period.
IMO POLB have done everything stated in the IPO doc and more. Unfortunately, the market does not recognise this but will do so if & when the output from POLB001 is positive and results in out-licencing deal(s).
DYOR
FFS i really thought this dog couldn't get any worse. There's must be a reason why this turkey is being dumped on a daily basis.....if we only knew why. billion $$$ company my ar5e.
That'll be because it's growing at a snails pace, the contracts seem to have dried up, their won't be any covid challenge studies as some are still believing despite CF stating that their won't be any. It wont be profitable for a long long time yet if at all and because their are a multiple of much much better investments out there right now.
I see the boys are back with their spurious comments on the well being of the business.
I was going to counteract these with lots of figures on the high levels of growth that there has been in screening capacity, beds, services offered by the laboratory, new challenge studies, ebita margin, profits, a order book of £70 million etc etc
Just read the half year report and the trading statement that was published earlier this month and all is there to see.
The business is stronger than ever.
Yeah stronger than ever ......that's why the SP is in freefall, directors falling over to buy on the cheap and fund managers banging the door down. Sorry SP says it all IMO. Unfortunately my losses so heavy ain't worth selling just have to keep my fingers crossed that i can break even in the afterlife. :-(
The problem is noelpro that no matter how good you think the business is the market doesn't and unfortunately you can't fight the market and their's absolutely nothing spurious in my comments maybe you just don't like hearing the truth because your losing money.
The truth remains that the business is stronger than ever.
You are right that the share price does not reflect this at the moment.
But these are two separate things. The market reflects the nature of the AIM market, the depressed nature of the sector and in particular the impact of those talking the business down on the confidence of small investors.
The Aim market is as we know, more sentiment led than any other. Good businesses can be unloved, crap ones overhyped, but eventually fundamentals apply. If I were CF I would be looking to dual list on Nasdaq, more stable for one thing, far greater pool of investors and closer to most of Hvivo's client base ongoing. I would imagine there would be strong interest in a company offering a service that doesn't exist in the States, but which is valued by Big Pharma there. Plus the richness of data (and the known unknowns of DiM). I would imagine that is what is behind the name change and rebranding, but dyor
Citizen, Not sure if you were aware of this that was posted weeks ago?https://mobile.twitter.com/eskers1/status/1550921404605939712/photo/1
Guess this falls into the crap ones over hyped then.
Looking at the board members of O'Spiel, Johnson and Toole, shame there's not a 4th member called John Thomas to complete the set.
Ironman - regarding your comment on CF "That's because he talked complete and utter crap with his fanciful ambitions of grandure. Of course people were going to buy believing him when he said it was going to be a billion dollar company."
Well i personally didn't believe him when he said the SP would double every 6 months and i took the billion $ company (including spin offs) as an aspirational target. If as it appears you invested based on these statements you only have yourself to blame. Get over it and move on
He was commenting on CF's credibility and morality rather than general investing I think.
Oh don't worry shandy I didn't lose any money at all and I'm glad if you didn't believe CF but alot of people did which is most definitely why the SP shot up to 47p I think it was. I'm just expressing my opinion of the situation as I see it now.
Was that final trade of 100 shares a signal for Monday - I wonder ?
100 = I want this stock !
Sadly the management team at OO lack any credibility. CF talked crap and totally misled the market. Cost many HUGE amounts
The current price reflects CFs credibility = 0