The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/galacto-oligosaccharide-gos-market
cost of gos seems to be around 6k per tonne add on manufacturing maybe 7k -8k ???
5% royalties ?£40 mill on 100k tonnes ?????
back of *** packet strictly
but cost of gos seems right ??
Regarding the nuances, I think there was two significant nuggets.
(1) One the resale or retention rates are excellent albeit from a low base.
(2) Finally SOH appears to have woken up to the power of marketing/ social media.
The jam tomorrow narrative is still there but I think the evidence is building that the foundation is very sound, certainly compared to 12-18 months ago
(2)
Ok, just listened. From 4.40 to 5.30 SOH talks about distributors destocking. But that revenue was booked in earlier year(s). So not in 2023,as I understand it. Then he says, we will see a leap in revenues. From 2024 ? So not sure what this means for upcoming 2023 results.
Some interesting chat about getting into Sports nutrition with high protein, high fibre snacks.
And then, signposting some updating in near future on Micro Mods.
Good of him to take the trouble to do the podcast. But not sure I was particularly excited by it. Hope others can find the nuances I missed.
Thanks for that, mol.
Https://soundcloud.com/optibiotix-investor/february-29th-2024
Something to listen to over the weekend
mol
We know the standard royalty % with the US partner is 5% plus another 5% for the MTA partners. I think it's safe to assume that OptiBiotix royalty with DSM Firmenich is 5%.
I don't think it'll be too far off that figure
Just a thought on price per ton. I think I remember an RNS in the past year that has spoken about trying to compete with sugar on price.
Given that sugar is circa $400 per metric ton, and in addition brings extra tax burdens at the point of sale to the consumer, perhaps that gives us some idea of the price of Sweet.
Of course whatever the price is, we are seeing a % of that and not the whole thing.
The above is complete speculation brought about by my excitement at the disclosure of the news that Sweet is goog into production. It could definitely be wrong
Nice week on OPTI, wish a few of my other AIM stocks would do the same.
Held on through the s*** days on the hope that the portfolio of different deals would start to motor -an with a royalty model the scaling of revenue to the bottom line is incredible past breakeven on fixed costs.
Will be watching the Strade Bianche at the weekend, the most beautiful cycle race partly on the compacted chalk "white roads" in tuscany finishing in the sqaure in Sienna - the DSM Firmenich team will be riding !
The actual text was > 100k tonnes and this is for only DSM Firmenich.
The US partner will most likely have similar forecast with any few of the big 11 global MTA partners signing up for sweetbiotix. I think this is in the early stages of a major re-rate of the sp.
I think if it was a typo we would have had an amendment by now? I think we have been, through not actually knowing, guessing on the most skeptical percentages, but this rns from last year did state actual percentage royalties. It's hard to comprehend these figures and what it would mean for the company.
From last July's RNS;
A manufacturing agreement signed with a US partner in September 2020. They are paying OptiBiotix a six figure annual milestone in H2 every year during scale up plus a six figure launch milestone payment with royalties of 5% on all sales and a further 5% on sales to 11 named companies (Kelloggs, Nestle, Coca Cola , Firmenich, Tereos, Cargill, Arla ,Tate and Lyle, Agropur, Givaudan, Tata) reflecting the development work ongoing with these partners before we signed the agreement.
@AustinTexas, I had a quick look at some sugar suppliers, you may have heard of Kent Foods, they had this on their website:
"Kent Foods is Europe’s largest independent supplier of sugars, selling 350,000 tonnes of sugar every year. Here at Kent Foods, we are completely independent. This means that we can advise you on the best wholesale sugar for your requirements from our own Sucranna Sugar range to the ranges of the World's major refiners."
As this is just 1 independent supplier, and there are many others, I think 100K per annum for us is very good for a starter and as Sweetbiotix get's more established, I can see that increasing rapidly in a 2-3 years times. We also have the supplier across the pond also, and if they were to do a similar preliminary forecast of 100k tonne per annum as well, that'll be 200k tonne.
I still can’t get over the 100,000 tonnes per year. My instinct tells me the number is wrong and should be 1000 tonnes. Just for a moment visualise a single ton of product in a cube container maybe 1 .5 meter in size - put a thousand of those together- now do that 100 more times, I bet you couldn’t fit it in an oil tanker. And that’s just a years product?
Even if Opti receive £1000 per ton (£30k for Slimbiome!?) that’s £100m per year. This would blow every one of those “70+” previous agreements out of the water - combined! That amount of product would surely equate to complete worldwide domination of sugar products.
Someone please convince me the numbers and revenue are correct!
I think it's a very good update. It would have been nice to know if they had hit profitability in all the divisions as was the aim on a month-by-month basis by Dec 23. Good to see us concentrating on the bigger markets now.
As regards to Sweetbiotix, that was one of the main things that attracted me to Optibiotix many years ago (too bad I got in when share price was a lot higher compared to now), it definitely has been slow going, but 2024 is the year for us. I think someone was trying to compare the 100K tonne to what Stevia produce, but I don't think we can make a comparison to that as ours is a bulk sugar replacement (so if product has 100g of sugar, I assume they would use roughly around 100g of sweetbiotix, we need a lot more info around this though ), whereas Stevia is just a sweetener so only need a tiny bit to sweeten stuff.
Awesome to hear it's already been added to a finished product already and that we should expect to see many more throughout 2024. I'm finally really excited for this year after waiting patiently for several years.
Not to forget we still have "MicroBiome Modulators" in the pipeline, which could be massive. Does anyone know if any timelines have been mentioned around that?
The climate could not be better for a sweetbiotix launch although the wait has frustrated us all.It is becoming clear that sugar and sweeteners in ultra processed food has caused nearly the same morbidity and mortality as smoking.Many countries have legislated against this food type and surely the UK will belatedly follow.Gut health is now known to be an essential for our general health.We have products that will fit perfectly with the move away from ultra processed ,high sugar/artificial sweetener full foodstuffs.Several global companies have expressed their wish to embrace healthier food so if we are good enough we should get into the team.
I wonder whether some big holder may have been determined to sell into the mid 20s to account for the volume that has been shifted without a massive swing I'm share price. Hopefully that seller is now done and the handbrake can come off.
Yes very muted response given the potential health benefits from this product
Abstract
The gut microbiota and their metabolites could play an important role in health and diseases of human beings. Short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) are mainly produced by gut microbiome fermentation of dietary fiber and could also be produced by bacteria of the skin and vagina. Acetate, propionate, and butyrate are three major SCFAs, and their bioactivities have been widely studied. The SCFAs have many health benefits, such as anti-inflammatory, immunoregulatory, anti-obesity, anti-diabetes, anticancer, cardiovascular protective, hepatoprotective, and neuroprotective activities. This paper summarizes health benefits and side effects of SCFAs with a special attention paid to the mechanisms of action. This paper provides better support for people eating dietary fiber as well as ways for dietary fiber to be
AqSu, thanks for posting.
Things are even better for sweetbiotix than relayed in the latest RNS. Having spotted there was no mention of the standalone sweetbiotix product referred to in the sweetbiotix update RNS less than a month ago, I posed the following question and received the response below.
"One question regarding the sweetbiotix statement "The Company has included SweetBiotix® in a finished product for a large global partner with a view for an upcoming launch. The Company hopes to see SweetBiotix® in an increasing number of products launched throughout 2024." Does this mean that there is no longer an intention to first launch sweetbiotix as a direct bulk sugar replacement as announced in the sweetbiotix update less than one month ago?
"Discussions are ongoing but are likely to involve a phased introduction of SweetBiotix® products as a direct bulk sugar substitute and then introduced into OptiBiotix's and partners consumer products across an increasing range of applications. "
Response from SOH
"We still intent to launch sweetbiotix as a bulk sugar replacement. These two approaches are not mutually exclusive. We have been surprised and somewhat pleased that progress has been made so quickly with a large corporate in terms of inclusion in a final product."
So two shots at goal :)
A six figure payemt to be made every 12 months nail product launch? How many 12 month periods are they expecting to wait until product launch? What payments would be expected after product launch?
DC, no it's not you. It's everyone else! Lol, wink emoji.
As you saw, yesterday's RNS was to update progress on 1st generation products. So for me, it was a nice surprise to see an exciting snippet about Sweet, at the end of the lengthy announcement. I hope it wasn't SOH teasing us and that the launch of 2nd generation products is truly imminent. And, that we will get separate, "transformational" updates on Sweet. Cheers. MU.
PS: let's hope in this leap year, the SP does a big leap. Up!
I was thinking the same. The volume though tells a different story than the share price which is even wierder. Huge volume both days with very little share price movement today.
Very odd
I can't understand the muted response to yesterdays Sweetbiotix news. Surely the numbers we're seeing here will lead to staggering revaluation of the company? procurementresource.com/resource-center/stevia-price-trends
Is it me, am I missing something obvious?
Original US sweetbiotix deal -
OptiBiotix will receive a modest six-figure payment from the Company on signing the agreement and at 12 monthly intervals until product launch. Additional similar payments will be due on product launch plus royalties on all future product sales.
Does this mean another payment on the launch of the first sweetbiotix product?
Our FD (albeit part-time) was only appointed on 4th Dec 2023
https://www.optibiotix-ir.com/content/news/archive/2023/041223
but now also noted on website
https://optibiotix.com/corporate/
albeit i accept an update to the revenue potential from May 2023 slides , prior to his appointment, would be more than useful - but give him a bit more time!
slides here - which at time of release i noted underwhelming for 2024 and even 2025
https://www.walbrookpr.com/docs/librariesprovider48/default-document-library/investors/optibiotix---investor-presentation-may-2023.pdf
just reminding the bb re the only figures we have to date - again as far as i'm aware
mol