The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Regarding the nuances, I think there was two significant nuggets.
(1) One the resale or retention rates are excellent albeit from a low base.
(2) Finally SOH appears to have woken up to the power of marketing/ social media.
The jam tomorrow narrative is still there but I think the evidence is building that the foundation is very sound, certainly compared to 12-18 months ago
(2)
Thats true lord and profit is ultimately the aim for any company, however this share has taken such a battering that even some signs of decent revenue should result in an uplift in the share price. I agree its certainly a gamble but if you look at this from the point of view of somebody who is totally new to opti and probiotix and can view it as a standalone opportunity i certainly think it s a gamble that has merit.
All true lord but most opportunities at around the 5p-7p mark dont have an RNS specifically stating revenue of £1.2 million I think it was up to August 2022. The whole point is that this isnt one of SOH vague promise, forecasts or predictions its an actual written fact. Aquis is indeed illiquid and that doesnt help, but the fact remains that Probiotix share price is ridiculously low compared to the sales generated
Apologies for reiterating but I want to make sure I have this exactly right. Probiotix is valued at 3p despite a confirmed RNS stating that sales with( numbers given) were higher in the first 8 months of 2022 than the whole of 2021. Does Probiotix have any hidden debt ? Because if not this represents one of the best punts I have seen for a long time. I using the word punt instead of opportunity because of the various misguided promises of jam tomorrow which we have all received.
As you say Aquae, fact regarding RNS previously mentioned. This fact alone should be enough to move the share price up to circa 20p. Is SOH now so badly regarded that RNS which give cold hard numbers are now discounted?
LWHL: Let me clarify myself. By greatest i mean the product is clearly there, in many cases backed by science, the market is almost certainly there. The share price is completely shot, so you have a very cheap company which has a product that should be selling in the hundreds of thousands of units.
In the sense of being the greatest company regarding cash flow, profits, growing customer base etc optibiotix is probably in the national league north division. What I should have said is that for any company in the pharmaceutical/microbiotics sphere optibiotix represents a great chance to purchase dirt cheap a company that has several very good products but no clue of how to market or sell them.
Thank you for an excellent summary Aquae. If I was to look at this objectively optibiotix would be one of the greatest buys available on any stockmarket. I think the boy who cried wolf scenario is most appropriate. In this case the wolf has eaten all the sheep and the boy tries to persuade the wolf to leave him alone by claiming that he has a UZI submachine gun hidden in the sheperds hut. Despite the fact that all he has done so far is throw stones. Personally I think the boy has an Enfield rifle, which should see off the Wolf and make a profit for anyone who invests at this price.
Yes his remuneration is excessive and should be significantly lower due to the lack of progress in recent years. The fact the market has yet to be convinced though is precisely the point. As far as I can tell Opti has several products which have some form of scientific backing whether that be CE marks or research from Universitities. For some reason they are not selling which has resulted in Optis market capitalisation collapsing. This surely represents an opportunity to one company or another with competence in the Sales and marketing area, assuming this is where Opti is going wrong.
Cant argue with that LWHL. Surely though the fact that we have a working product which does things that are massively in demand eg lowers blood pressure improves lean muscle mass etc is inherently worth something. I would that thought that a company which deals with medical professionals and actually has a sales and marketing strategy would be able to make a substantial profit.
I am surprised nobody has come in with an offer to buy Opti yet. The products seem to be good and have scientific backing in some cases. I know the marketing/sales side is appauling but one would think that a company which possesses marketing and sales skills could make a success of Optibiotix
I think the one plus side to this whole saga is that optibiotix as you have pointed out has lost all credibility. By that I mean the market is now so disillusioned with this share that even a moderate set of results would be an appreciable success to some degree. This would probably shift the shares towards 20p, approximately a 50% rise in % terms.
To benefit however one has to be prepared to
(1) Invest more capital into a share that has dropped over 90% from its peak. This brings the saying about catching falling knives to a new level.
(2) Accept that opti is capable of producing a moderate set or results. Theoretically they should as orders pick up as the Covid stock piling diminishes. Unfortunately as SOH credibility is so low no-one believes him even when he attaches numbers to his jam tomorrow statements, the choice comes down to little more than an informed guess.
Thats precisely my point lord. SOH has lost almost all credibility in terms of forecasting results. I think the general feeling of pessimism is so high that even a moderate set of results will look good against the H1 backdrop. I think the current share price is largely factual in the sense that optibiotix isn't bankrupt and it does sell stuff. I think at 13p if it can show it sells a bit more stuff than last year then we should see some form of increase.