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Thats precisely my point lord. SOH has lost almost all credibility in terms of forecasting results. I think the general feeling of pessimism is so high that even a moderate set of results will look good against the H1 backdrop. I think the current share price is largely factual in the sense that optibiotix isn't bankrupt and it does sell stuff. I think at 13p if it can show it sells a bit more stuff than last year then we should see some form of increase.
Am i right in thinking that SOH has talked specific figures or at least made provable or disprovable claims in his previous couple of podcasts? As opposed to the general strategising which can be made to sound very promising but when it comes to naught can be blamed on other factors. I m thinking that this share has taken such a hammering that even moderate results for both Probiotix and Optibiotix will look good compared to H1.
Aquae and Friedman:- Thanks there is certainly a case for holding on the hope that probiotix has been more successful and the H2 figures will hopefully be much improved. An argument could be made for purchasing more on a speculative basis, as even modest good news may push the price up to circa 30-32p, almost a 100% return on current levels. Do we know when Probiotixs first results are due?
I dont know enough about it to be sure but it seems to me we are in danger of being left behind? Presumably other companies in the microbiome space are developing their own health foods alongside optibiotix. The other observation I would make is that markets hate uncertainty, which is an excellent definition of optibiotix. Uncertainty can be very profitable however a drop in share price from 129p to 17p is not a good sign. I also find it very puzzling why after all the deals we signed around the world it appears very few have come to any fruition. Surely if the product is as good as claimed they would be falling all over themselves to produce porridges, cereal bars etc?
Can anyone realistically see this company succeeding now. I cant see where they go from here. I sincerely hope I m wrong but the evidence would tend to suggest otherwise.
(1) SOH- Initially a very creditable CEO, but looking worse by the day, continued promises of deals round the corner which never materialise. I believe mol has found stuff from 2016-2017 which sounds remarkably similar to the jam tomorrow statements issued in 2021/2022.
(2) 72 Odd deals signed and from that we get H1 Sales of £100,000 odd, from a product which should be groundbreaking.
(3) General shoddy presentation of the packaging and complete lack of awareness of any of optis products among the general public and medical professionals. We have a product that helps lower blood pressure yet nobody outside of opti shareholders seems to have heard of it
(4) EVERY promised breakthrough is either significantly delayed or forgotten about. Will be interesting to see what happens to Apollo.
(5) No acknowledegment of responsibility, every thing that goes wrong is due to external circumstances never mistakes on optis part.
(6) Hiring of new directors which would seem on the face of it to be an excellent idea, but currently is just eroding optis cash pile.
Mol
I was wondering if you could do some research for me? When i checked the opti share price this morning the numbers were blue instead of red. Do you think the lse website has run out of red ink for opti?
I think it has gone quiet because many long term shareholders have finally got sick of jam tomorrow, bearing in mind we have had variations of that theme since 2015. I also think not exceeding the forecasts of 2.2 earnings for 2021 was a huge blow. My suspicion is that the company is growing far too slowly, especially bearing in mind the extra expenses incurred in bringing new directors in. I recognise that a deal with a big company concerning Sweetbiotix would change things,as would appreciable revenue from India. SOH doesnt help himself with tactics like listing Probioxtix on Aquis, which no one has ever heard of. I think Optibiotix until recently say March 2022 was regarded as a reasonable prospect of short to medium term gain, hence holding the share price at least in high 30s. I would say in current position it is now little more than a punt albeit possibly a very lucrative one. If it drops to 15p I will buy a few more on that basis
After the spinoff Opti will still own 85% of Probiotix correct? Therefore if probiotix share does well then opti should rise also?
What was Probiotix contribution to Gross Revenue in the last set of results in numerical and percentage terms?
Anybody who has knowledge on this please feel free to enlighten and or correct me.
The share price has risen 33% in little over 24 hours on the basis that SOH is farming out a small portion of Probiotix to a stock exchange that nobody has heard of in order to raise £2.5 million pounds, Optibiotix holders will still own approx 85% of Probiotix and have the option through a financial advisor to purchase some separately listed Probiotix shares.
Presumably the need to raise money indicates that any substantial sales growth in Optis current products is still some way away. So how is this good news? It seems to me to be more of the jam tomorrow stuff ,yet the share price has reacted more positively than at any time in recent memory.
Belgrano
Your advice is sound, its essentially now a race between extra admin costs versus sales growth. The BOD has been somewhat discredited so it now comes down to essentially a gamble. I reckon there is about a 40% chance it will come good . If it does i think a £1.00 is a realistic possibility so more or less treble current price. Purely on odds that makes it aa 6/4 bet with possible returns of 2/1. On that basis i ll have a few more.