Member Info for Andrew7

Anybody who has knowledge on this please feel free to enlighten and or correct me.
The share price has risen 33% in little over 24 hours on the basis that SOH is farming out a small portion of Probiotix to a stock exchange that nobody has heard of in order to raise £2.5 million pounds, Optibiotix holders will still own approx 85% of Probiotix and have the option through a financial advisor to purchase some separately listed Probiotix shares.

Presumably the need to raise money indicates that any substantial sales growth in Optis current products is still some way away. So how is this good news? It seems to me to be more of the jam tomorrow stuff ,yet the share price has reacted more positively than at any time in recent memory.

So we get some shares of the probiotix spin off free or we have to purchase through an advisor? Whats the in specie dividend about?

Bit puzzled, any clarification would be helpful.
Will optibiotix now own approx 90% of the Probiotix spin off £2.5 million to raise from £22.5 million mentioned in the RNS?

Belgrano

Your advice is sound, its essentially now a race between extra admin costs versus sales growth. The BOD has been somewhat discredited so it now comes down to essentially a gamble. I reckon there is about a 40% chance it will come good . If it does i think a £1.00 is a realistic possibility so more or less treble current price. Purely on odds that makes it aa 6/4 bet with possible returns of 2/1. On that basis i ll have a few more.

I would love to think your right. Farris
may i ask what makes you think it will come good?

Hi Belgrano

That seems to be the problem generally We get a deal signed which sounds great, thousands of pharmacies across India rolled out this year, should be good revenue and sounds fantastic on paper. Then reality hits, it may be that the new Apollo deal does work out well, but I think given Optis history your version is far more credible. I think promotion of the products by Opti has been terrible historically, hardly anybody outside of shareholders had heard of it. That seems to be changing so it may well be that this year growth picks up apace.

The only thing that can really save this now is if the new appointments are able to drive sales quickly and improve optis visibility to general public. Otherwise we have another 3-5 year time scale waiting for second generation products to make a decent income. Two caveats firstly I have seen more mention of opti in share magazines and gut health being discussed on TV in the last 2 months than the previous 10 years combined. Secondly Covid isca convenient excuse but perhaps its effects were felt more in H2 than anticipated and we ll see a recovery in H1 of this year. Also the Indian deal should make a huge difference but based on past performance I am reserving judgement

Precisely Dire Con
We are getting the same sort of noises now about the next generation of big deals which will probably take 5 years to come to fruition, which is fine if the first group are selling really well. They seem to be doing OK but nothing spectacular which given how good a product they are is slightly concerning. Maybe the improvement in communications at Opti will do the trick.

Previously I have been frustrated with Opti but always believed in it because of the products which if they do as claimed should be in the World beating category. Normally I buy on a dip ,but in this case not sure I will bother. If existing products available on the market are not showing significantly increased sales then why should future products do much more than keep Opti a going concern, and possibly show a small profit. I think another investor presentation from SOH is required, because I get the sense that long term shareholders who previously believed and possibly still to to an extent are losing faith.

Yes but when? If Royalties are largely reoccurring and mainly fall in H2 and admin expenses are creeping up and our H1 results were a soft comparison because of Covid then these figures are nothing special at all. With the method of signing deals used by Opti in the past incomes should be increasing significantly as royalties and new income streams are added the fact that they arent suggests to me the sales of existing products are fairly sluggish.

Is the h2 unaudited results due this week, or is that a guess based on previous years?

I suppose we best buy a few more then.

Skid
Almost certainly true I dont understand it. What i do understand is that if Opti needs to retain and employ key staff then this would seem to be a reasonable way of going about it. Having the right staff in the right place will almost certainly be more important in driving the share price than any changes to option rights. Perhaps the right staff might include a communications expert for example, an area in which opti has been traditionally poor

Need to retain key staff. Eventually share price will move based on deals coming to fruition. Simple enough

I m hoping the trading update for 2022 will show revenue of 3 million. Thereby increasing the share price by at least 3pence before it drops down below 45p again after a couple of days. I mean why would anybody want to buy a share that has increased revenue for 4 years, has 85% sustainable royalties, is involved in one of the most significant areas of health and has both peer reviews and clinical trials behind it, oh and is more than likely going to generate a couple of million in revenues in India in 2022. It obviously makes far more sense to leave the money in the bank get 0.002% interest and watch inflation of about 10% erode your capital.

"To be very frank not the greatest of insights". Thats my point skid about referring to investors with more knowledge than me. To them its not the greatest of insights but to the more casual investors on my level it indicates how well SOH and team have done despite the acknowledged weaknesses in marketing and communication.

I can think of ten regular posters off the top of my head whose knowledge of Opti is far greater than mine. Have held optibiotix for about six years whilst always half thinking about selling due to slow share price progress. The presentation both improved my knowledge and removed many of the doubts. The information we have been given there is no way this share remains under a £1.00 for more than 12 months, 18 at the absolute maximum.

I agree. Placed my order for a few more last night.
(1) 88.5% reoccurring revenues means £1,925,000 of the forecasted 2.2 is locked in for lack of a better term
(2)Leanbiome has already got an order for 200,000 i think it was, again SOH giving out numbers is unusual lead me to believe he is very confident.

(3) India
1.3 Billion population. 28 % of whom are middle class that means potentially 386400000 customers . even if we look on the pessimistic side and opti only manage a market share of 0.0002% that still equates to 77280 customers spending perhaps £20 a year . Total revenue from that assumption equals £1.545,600 per year.

Were opti to achieve 0.001% of the market then that revenue jumps five fold to £7,728,000

(4) An acknowledgment that communication and marketing have been a weak point and a plan to deal with it

(5) Scientific backing for many of the products, that may not be important yet but when opti reaches the surgeries, pharmacies NHS etc could well prove crucial

Now here goes my prediction, Optibiotix will reach £1.00 by Christmas 2022 and £2.50 by Christmas 2023. When the price starts to move it will move quickly so I am buying as many as finances allow while it is heavily undervalued

SOH is one of the most cautious men I have ever come across, yet he mentions at least 3 times in the presentation that 2021 full year revenues are expected to meet or exceed forecasts of 2.2 million. Loosely translated that probably means that they will probably arrive closer to the 3 million mark. The jam tomorrow side of things is frustrating but the reason behind why its jam tomorrow i.e the sheer amount of detail required to deal with the big players makes sense. The fact that 88.5% of the revenues are reoccuring is hugely significant as it gives the company a base on which to expand and invest on the areas in which they have previously been weak namely marketing and communication. Also observe that numbers were mentioned in the last lean biome RNS which is an unsual step. I personally will be purchasing more shares as I think the company ha got its fundamentals spot on . The current low share price can be ascribe to 4 things lack of ii interest, an over inflated share price in 2015-2018 during which many investors got burned, many investors not understanding the complexity of getting deals over the line and finally a lack of patience.

Simplistic question but what is going on here with the share price. As far as I can see the company is progressing nicely in terms of signing new deals and generating revenue from existing ones. Yet the price refuses to go beyond 50p for more than a couple of days at a time. Is there an elephant in the room that I am missing