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Everything is open to interpretation. There are a few on here that do indeed state facts, often backward looking, whilst others take those same facts and read between lines and try to join the dots, forming the future view.
UK-RTC (Anitbody)
Omega, and Abingdon (and one assumes BBI), have been manufacturing ABC-19 tests in readiness for expected orders. Some will say, but they’ve not sold any (apart from the 1m gov order).
What we know:
• The original framework agreement had terms included whereby the UK gov had first refusal and had to provide approval to the RTC to sell to other parties. We know the GLP are challenging that agreement, My take on this is that with the GLP challenge, the UK gov will have felt restricted in being able to action anything (order or approve) under that agreement.
• Abingdon and CIGA are now actively advertising the availability of the ABC-19 test, taking orders (no longer pre-orders)
• That original agreement has now expired, and “In-line with the Government's shift to a dynamic purchasing strategy, the Board expects that any future orders will be received via an application by the Company to future DHSC tender notices.”
• https://twitter.com/AshJw86/status/1364317536070828035
The date on this test shows November 2020 manufactured…. Promising to think they have been making them since then, throughout the time of significant expansion.
• And from this morning, https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ODX/uk-rtc-statement-on-abc-19tm-rapid-antibody-test-soejqvf2l6wi1ra.html, great news. This will be very relevant for countries where the vaccine isn’t as readily available in the UK, in identifying those that have/haven’t got antibodies, before administering.
1/3
DHSC Contract (Antigen)
We have not seen the commercials, this is true.
We don’t know the length of the agreement or expected demand.
There are some that will pick at these points. Potential hit to margin, may not be a lengthy contract, will take an age for them to select a test, might need to TT before manufacturing etc.
What we know:
• Colin’s response to the recent Q&A, “We are happy with the terms of the contract and that we will receive a fair price for the work we undertake for the Government”
|* Big increase in staff numbers.
• Taken on a new unit to accommodate the gov loan kit.
• Building works are underway to accommodate the expansion plans, connecting units, indicating there is a significant length to the contract and or plans for use thereafter.
• Gov is lending kit that will be used to produce ~1m LFTs per week (in addition to the ~1m per week that Omega already have)
• The UK gov have a target of producing 2m LFT tests a day. 2m per week is a small scratch on that.
• The UK gov Spring response, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf, is littered with references to Rapid LFT testing. Twice a week for secondary/college students. Community collection centres, later becoming home delivery service, being setup.
• Tenders (large ones) open on Bidstat yet to be updated with information on who has been awarded the contracts.
• If the selected test is Mologic, great. TT is already underway.
Some will pick at Mologic TT not yet completing. Planned delivery for this was always “early in the new year” For me that’s no later than Q1. My thoughts are that perhaps it has completed. Vaccines are the news at the moment. UK gov need as many vaccinated as possible. It’s not the right time for UK gov to announce a world leading test. When it does I think we will be told TT, UKCA/CE, Order placed in very short order. Or, actually, it just takes time https://www.who.int/medicines/areas/quality_safety/quality_assurance/TransferTechnologyPharmaceuticalManufacturingTRS961Annex7.pdf (credit: Upomega for the info)
• If the selected test is Avacta, great. There was already a linked-in leak that Omega were working with Avacta on test development (pre Mologic/Avacta collaboration). I will speculate that ‘if’ it is looking like Avacta will be the test (now or future), Omega are in a a very good position to take that on, quickly.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/02/23/government-considers-vaccine-passport-lateral-flow-test-pilots/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_Awv7KZstXxX3
2/3
All of the above is very much UK focused. There’s a whole wide world out there too. With 2 UK gov endorsed tests… that’s a big market place to be in.
The above are the big ticket items with company changing news due any moment.
In addition… there’s:
• Orders for Visitect CD4 tests
“As mentioned in the recent trading update - 7-10 countries are expected to have initiated roll out plans for the test by the financial year-end i.e, March with further countries expected to join the program in Qtr 1.”
“they are very much in the early phase and a key first step is to produce raw materials that will provide a competitive edge, that is currently our key focus”
• Orders for Food Intolerance tests
• Orders for Visitect Triple AB tests
• ELISA AB Lab testing
• And development of tests for the futute, Cryptococcal meningitis and a TB-LAM test to diagnose T.B. in people living with HIV.
It can be frustrating, having to wait for company changing events to occur.
Frustrating working with the UK gov.
Frustrating we haven’t realised huge sums of money for Covid testing this year.
Some people will choose to focus and write about that, with a glass half empty (in some cases smashed) point of view.
BUT…. All good things come to those who wait… so they say, and so for those with as half glass full perspective;
All of the above, the facilities, the increased staff, the building works, UK gov loan kit, engagement with the UK gov to produce not just one, but two leading tests. I guess it comes down to a bit of common sense, trusting in the BOD, and a lot of patience.
DYOR.. GLA. Here’s to a better day ahead.. hopefully.
3/3
This is THE post of the month on this site, by TOn1c. Articulates the ODX case perfectly. Well said TOn1c. Onwards and upwards for ODX investors. Good luck, Brighty
Great posts as usual
"Abingdon and CIGA are now actively advertising the availability of the ABC-19 test, taking orders (no longer pre-orders)"
They have no significant orders, both ABX and ODX are listed companies, and have a requirement to inform the market of price significant information. ODX has said on several occasions they will announce significant orders...on which there has been total radio silence.
They have no orders, which as a manufacturing company that has had 3 covid tests available for many many months, is startling.
Twatcher....
They are not making them for fun!!
They are not making them just to pass the day away or even just to fill empty boxes.
They are making them for a reason and the reason will become clear very soon!!!
Regards lj
They are not making them for fun!!
......EBITDA loss in the region of £2.1 million to £2.3 million
They are already making tests at ODX, they are working their shifts at full capacity.
Aside from traders (I don't trade, as not very good at it!) there will be some newer investors that maybe don't realise that to make serious money you need PATIENCE.
I have waited 5 years before to make some serious money in a share.
The traders will say you could have made money trading in those years, yes true, but I could have lost the money as well.
Once a company changing RNS comes in, it is too late often.
The biggest gains I have had have come from being patient and holding where I believed in the company.
Same applies here.
Aberdeenman
"The biggest gains I have had have come from being patient and holding where I believed in the company."
This! 100% this!
Aberdeenman - 100% agree, 'time in' the market vs 'timing in the market'.
". Each strategy has its merits however trading if done well is far more profitable."
No harm in doing that if you are good at it.
Where it is hugely negative and immoral is when the trader tries to manipulate the price.................
Aberdeenman
Where it is hugely negative and immoral is when the trader tries to manipulate the price.................
Especially a vocal trader who seemed to have a good amount of naive followers
ODX have not said they are making a SINGLE lft test, NO phrase or sentence from ODX over the last months (other than the 250K RTC tests) regarding current or previous production levels.
They have said "on twitter" about delivering 2M a week by april, and yet strangely this 'guarantee 'of production has not been mentioned to the stock exchange as is their legal obligation. It would be wise to stick to what ODX says in official legal and formal channels of company communication, and pay less attention to the twitter-sphere and a random guy on lse for who NO ONE knows his bona fides.
Follow the money, there is no hole in the last accounts that would indicate that ODX are stockpiling tests, which would require payment for raw materials and cassette. Many would have you believe that odx now has a stockpile of many millions of RTC tests, saying that they have been manufacturing at full capacity all along. that requires £1Ms to make them. The reason they would have you 'believe' it is because it requires a religious act of faith. NOTHING bars odx from saying they are stocking piling tests. Those same people rather conveniently forget that CK himself said some months ago that most of ODX's output would be antigen LFT testing. ODX don't currently have an antigen test to manufacture.
There are no orders.
let's not go down this JAdam route again.It has been established what going on, let's leave it there!
I have to agree with JAdam. I have been holding since April and have traded a section of my holdings to increase share number and reduce average. Seldom feeling any FOMO as I have always remained significantly invested. I learnt the hard way with SXX that holding without question in the hope of gold does not always work
if you're not happy with a company, its progress and its actions, sell up and move on with dignity.
Twatcher, how many more times are you going to repeat the same stuff over and over chap. It is so boring, change the record for god's sake!
@Twatcher
In RNS, ABDX state, "The Company is continuing to manufacture the AbC-19TM Rapid Test in anticipation of additional orders and to that end Abingdon's regulatory department is currently working with UK-RTC partners on regulatory approval in a total of 27 territories. " @Tue, 26th Jan 2021 07:01, RNS Number : 8387M
Colin recently responded to Q&A (admittedly not RNS) with, "We are currently building UK-RTC stock for forecasted demand, CD4 tests and transferring Mologic antigen test"
IMO, there will be orders.
Jadam, you were ramping the stock whilst selling, that has been established a while back. I don't need or wish to go any further, it is very obvious chap!
Same old same old from a certain few, why do they have to go on and on and on about the same thing over and over and over again !!!!!
If that's the way you feel sell up if you haven't already , go away you have made your point over and over and over and over again...
Let us who are happy invested here live in peace, thank you ......
Lj
I raised the below question this morning about the antibody test trying to stimulate a bit of ODX research/debate but I see everyone is far more interested in wasting their time rising to JAdam's posts.
Has anyone seen any figures on how much profit we make on selling via the consortium the antibody test private? Must be around the £2.50 mark like the antigen test. I see people on twitter had bought and were using them yesterday I'm going to buy some if I can get any.
"IMO there will be orders"
a 'cute' way of agreeing that there are no orders at this time.
"IMO, there will be orders."
We know there are orders, as the AbC19 test is being sold and dispatched.
The simple fact is, contrary to expectations of some (and the incorrect assertions of some of the usual suspects) ODX is not required to RNS every order - only those that would materially impact the share price.