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Understand though there are plenty that do consider his views and those folks are needed to help drive the share price. I do not think his take on NPT prior to the bizarre out-of-the-blue profit warning last October was that far off and he along with the rest of the smaller shareholders were totally blind sided.
If the ST you refer to is the one who works at IC then he cost me several K recently on NBU. (ramped at 60 as l remember, now about 12) Will be a long time before l heed his words again!
Yes, would be nice to know which results they refer to but I think it is safe to say that the underlying business is stable, in the hands of an experienced and knowledgeable CEO, continues growing, and maintains good cash flow. I presume the bizarre occurrences from last year were the result of a narrow marketing misstep and not a result of some underlying structural issue. I think it must be up from here though that will require some good PR. While many slammed ST for his previous price targets, I think that he too was caught off guard and I would love to see him issue an updated position. Hopefully the results in April will shed light on last year's communication debacle and bring some renewed confidence in the management.
Prelims are scheduled for "early April" if that helps. Does anyone have a view on whether the "market expectations" referred to in today's RNS are pre or post the last profit warning. Probably post l suppose. My view is that with a good amount of cash in the bank and directors buying after the warning the div is probably safe. l backed my hunch early this morning so hope l'm right. Any opinions???
Anyone know when prelims for FY 2014 might be coming out? Price stable at 7.25 for a while now - hoping that we will be able to learn more about what occurred at the end of Q3.
I wish I could be/feel hopeful...but I fear this may be stuck in the sub-10p class for sometime, unless one of the other companies puts in a bid for it or professional investors start buying. I hope I am wrong and that it is just waiting for a a nudge to push it up. I have a serious paper loss here. My own fault...although my faith in ST and IC has been seriously dented. But we are all grown ups and have to take responsibility for our own actions.
Hi, VG post. I always thought "material" meant significant, so rather more worrying GLA
Thanks for the link - I thought it was a nicely balanced analysis. I am really flummoxed by what accured on Friday and sort of angry but after reviewing the Sept RNS regarding H1 2014 and thinking some more I am going to be buying this week. When the cash is backed out of the valuation I really struggle to see how a business such as this with strong cash generation, sizeable customer base which is growing, platforms that exist and the space in which it operates in the technology, gaming and mobile sectors can only be worth less than 10 million. It really doesn't make sense. There are some pretty crappy AIM listed businesses out there with much stronger valuations so this NPT situation really doesn't add up. Though I am still confused as to how full year guidance can go from "yes, we will come in FY 2014 in line" to "ooops, we are going to miss our FY target" in just seven weeks or so. I can only think that there was some kind of error in their previous analysis and upon realizing they would miss, decided that they had to state it sooner than later. Is this a reason why Butler seems to be moving aside? And given that they are searching for a new CEO to manage the next stage of its development, which should be one of driving real growth, better to get it out and let the shares take the hit before moving forward. Also, it is not uncommon to try something, such as a marketing campaign, and have it go wrong. So, while it might take until next year, I think there is certainly upside from the current price. They use the term "material" when discussing the missed target. Just to what degree of a miss means material is open to interpretation and my guess, and it is simply a guess, is that the miss is probably not that huge but a miss it still will be.
A few thoughts. http://www.privatepunter.co.uk/News/npt-17-september-2014
Another of simon thompson's tips bite the dust and another one and another one. He caught me on Iqe but not this one. did you cash up entirely before the dip...?? As you say next year looks like another tough one.
Got ur handle wrong Mr speculator!
I agree jollyspectator - perhaps more buys over the next few days. I would like to know what current invested institutions like Henderson are planning. I would be shocked if they didn't have any warning as to what was coming.
cash down by a roughly a million in 3Q?? ...pls check...but that is just odd...cannot be the divi cos not paid yet??? ...Jolly puzzling
perhaps...would be more persuasive if he had bought 10 million shares
Looks like Andrew Lapping has picked up another 250k shares at 7.4p - I take it as a sign that the underlying position cannot be that bad. Missing a target is not good but certainly not the end of the story by any means.
perhaps you will have the grace to accept that your calls here have been poor? ...this is during the good times...next year looks grim indeed
Good points inthemoney...this has been a frustrating year for me and a steep learning curve, especially being invested in TTR and NPT. Both were making me money earlier in the year, but I STUPIDLY went away for six weeks. The voices in my head said SELL...SELL...but I thought they would be safe until I got back. When I came back they had both tanked. This sector is undoubtedly cash generative, but a bit of a pariah sector for big investors. There has been a lot of negative publicity about on-line gambling. My hope is that the POC will not have the impact that investors first thought and that rising profits will eventually lure in investors...over the next two years. I have taken a punt on 60000 @ 9p just in the hope of clawing back some lost investment. Lesson 1...if it doesn't feel right...it's probably because it isn't!!! Lesson 2...listen to the voices in your head...your intuition is a powerful and oft neglected tool Lesson 3...never, ever go on holiday!!!
Well, this has been painful and now that the dirty laundry has been aired, perhaps time to reassess. But before that, I do think it is criminal that most insiders made nice exits before the wallop of this RNS. Wasn't it just in Sept that management stated trading was in line with expectations? Didn't Big Brother end in mid August? They should have known plenty in Sept. The little guys seem to always take the brunt. Makes me wonder about the likes of Hendersons of the group that actually upped their holding not long ago. Do they see something positive? I think that this company actually has a bright future, and that this valuation is cheap and yes, oversold. BTW, I have taken a round trip on this one and still have a pretty size able holding so I guess I have to look for hope. Businesses like this have to experiment in order to grow. So, a bad marketing campaign here and there is bound to happen. The reality is that NPT still operates in an interesting space at the crossroads of gaming, media, and mobile and those platforms are of value. It has plenty of cash on hand - certainly enough cash to see it through to some more successful marketing campaigns. It also generates cash - it is a high gross margin business. The cloud of taxation will hang over the sector's head until year end and presuming the broader market has not totally tanked by then, at this valuation for NPT, the future should be reasonably bright. Institutions that are long in their view of NPT should be buying and the board should be buying, even if just to send a message that the underlying state of the business is stable.
What a complete disaster! Thanks, Simon T and IC. Will not be renewing my subscription. If I had followed my own intuition and stayed with ITV and Utilitywise...I would now be sitting on a shed load of cash. Very hard lesson learned!! Hope it recovers, but it is going to take some time....or it is just going to go under!!
What a terrible RNS. Wish I had never seen this share. Going to take the hit and sell. Can't see anything that will bring this share back in the medium term. Nothing positive.
glad to have got out at 18. One could see that major holders were leaving all the time and one cannot just sit back and see investment erode away. All the best alexia, and hope you recover your investment.
A few thoughts that may be on interest http://www.privatepunter.co.uk/Companies/another-spin-of-the-wheel-11-october-2014
probably doesn't warrant a weak sell recommendation, alexia ..as you say, time will tell ,,,,let's see how the management meets these choppy waters...and how choppy the regulators/government make this space
u posted oversold @18p...just because the sp has fallen, doesn't make it cheap ... pumped way too high...and now faces stiff reg headwinds/challenges (perhaps not just this tax change) imv