Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Geordie - forgot to mention the small matter of full ownership of a $2.1bn infrastructure hub planted in the centre of a massive hydrocarbon belt :)
Um, not sure how i'm on the wrong side. As I stated earlier, if you've coming back and can only make it personal then you clearly don't have an argument vs the extremely strong bear case that i'm presenting.
I put it to you again. How does NOG repay $1.1bn in debt to it's creditors?
Geordie - fair enough, but one crucial factual error. They do not need to refinance their bonds until 2022 - they have more time than you suggest. Furthermore, you miss a whole variety of positives, for example... they have a substantial cash position, they are generating high levels of operating cash flow, they have 400m boe of reserves and one of the largest prospective resource bases in the area, they can currently buy back their debt at a fraction of book value, they have Goldman Sachs working on optimising the strategy going forward etc etc ... ATB :)
Nickel - and your response is exactly what I expected - inability to acknowledge you made a mistake, followed by repetition of questions that were answered before the shares took off. Anyone interested in my answers has freedom to scroll down here or check the history on advfn. The market has responded and at the minute you’re on the wrong side of it. ATB :)
Well done to those buying any at these levels. Imminent bounce back. These low levels are pure order filling. Orchestrated faux drop and no reason for it at all. You will be kicking yourselves imho very soon. Ignore the sudden noise on here from people not invested a bean in here. DYOR
As per my post last night. Fair value until news is 25p. Might even be 23p.
Those who are say they made 150% did so because Nostrum was way oversold at the silly depths that it fell to at 6p. So, anyone with some decent knowledge bought in and made some good money.
What me (and a few others) are now saying is that at these levels its not going to go much further until some good news arrives.
1) They have £1.1bn of debt
2) They need to refinance their bonds in 2020
3) They have had three recent failed projects
4) There aren't many positives
For goodness sakes. On these forums you say something like "xyz lost 12m last year and orders are down 17%". Then comes the flood of abuse from other posters saying "deramper", "don't listen to him", "have you not got anything positive to say". If there was anything positive people will often mention it, but the fact is at the moment Nostrum does not have much going for it. There simply just isn't that much positive news.
Anything under circa 20p might be a buy, but if you look at the trading levels and price levels for the past few sessions you will see this simply isn't going any higher without news. That's because Nostrum currently isn't worth any more than current levels.
Wigammer - it's the response i expected tbh. Production is depleting, reserves are depleting, the drill bit is unsuccessful , oil is too low and the enterprise value is totally absurd. You haven't advised how NOG is going to pay back $1.1bn to it's creditors. That's what this debate is about. Please do so ! If anyone else wants to give it a stab, be my guest. I've been inviting such comments since 100p on here .... should tell you something.
Operations update will happen this coming Tuesday, 29th.
We may get feedback relating to the Goldman Sachs turnaround plan.
Possible things of interest 1) completed commissioning of GTU3 .. 2) asset reports, including from schlumberger 3) acquisition of further exploration area 4) potential purchase in debt at discount to reduce leverage 5) further efficiencies.
Who knows what might come out, but remember that longs hold a limited liability investment here, whereas shorts can lose multiples of 100%. ATB :)
Nickel - as explained to you, I am happy to let the market be the independent arbiter here. We had a discussion when the shares were less than half the level they are now. You chose to stay short and encouraged people to sell at 8p. I built a long position. Since then, the market has moved in my favour. It currently isn’t buying your assertion that the ops will continue to decline going forward, which btw, is not a fact but your opinion. Nothing personal, just a statement of fact, which you may not like but it is what it is. Hope that clears things up :)
Absolute no brainer at these levels - i'm buying more today
I’m not a holder and is awash with ‘negatives’ well you know their agenda, indeed he’s laughably even spelt it out - if you guys who are invested are foolish to believe his rating over the profs and the buy in stakes of ii’s then suggest you have a word with yourselves. 25p is beyond undervalued as we all know and why we are all here. mho DYOR
Wigwammer - You , nor anyone else has come up with a way $1.1BN can be returned to the creditors. As for myself, I'm doing absolutely great - The short call was from 100p, 90p and all the way down.
I look forward to more interaction ahead on NOG. Yours and everyone else's task is to try and come up with a way of finding $1.1BN in cash when the cashflow model is broken, the operations are in major decline. And that is a fact by the way. Now, let's see if you or others can keep it from getting personal? If not, suggests you're on the losing side of this debate !
Oh and well 41 was known when Berenberg made that valuation. Well 41 was confirmed as non commercial in August hence their article and revaluing it at the time.
These are the same guys who had a 200p target when the price drifted from 150p down to 50p, a little like Nikel - ramping falling stock and deramp stock thats moving up.
Only facts we know are, a review by GS is taking place, we will finish 2019 with over 100m on the balance sheet, well 41 was a fail, actively producing from 47 wells with more in the pipelines.
FPP added at 30p - if they wanted to take a profit they would have sold at 32p or thereabouts.
They aren’t the only ones adding here.
The fact we have news to arrive on multiple fronts is a reason the SP will rise in anticipation of them.
The debt..ok this could have put a dampener on Things when the SP was at 500-200p, not with where its at and over 100m on the balance sheet and turning a profit. This debt hasnt just been handed to the company, they’ve had it since the SP was at all time highs, they had it when a director bought over 3 million pounds worth of shares over 240p.
You pay your money and take your chances. You made 8% last time, plenty more to be made here GS.
I made a post on Saturday based on some research I had done. I said 25p could be fair value until more news in known and until the bonds are sorted.
On 21st Aug 19 Berenberg analysts said Nostrum was struggling to show its equity value and was facing an operational dilemma after disappointment at the Chinarevskoye field in Kazakhstan was replicated at the Northern area as well. Berenberg said Nostrum will need to start refinancing for its 2020 bonds soon which will be challenging if it can't achieve an operational turnaround by then.
Berenberg cut its rating to sell, from buy, and slashed its target price to 25p, from 200p previously. Nostrum shares were 30p on 21/8/19 when the article was written. I don't think even Berenberg thought they would temporarily fall to 5.4p (11th Oct). Todays close is around what Berenberg said CURRENT fair value would be until more positive news is known. The Well 41 news on 11th Oct wasn't even known when Berenberg said 25p. Not sure what they would consider fair value after the well 41 news.
FPP Asset Management who bought on 16th Oct could already be 18% (£283,500) in profit. They just timed their purchase perfectly so don't read too much into that as institutional buying.
As for today's rise, that is explained purely by traders. Obviously the market makers are happy to sell, increase the price and then walk it back down again so those who are experts at trading make money, and the average private investor gets caught out and is left holding.
This might be a rinse and repeat tomorrow, but until good news comes through I don't see this getting above 30p.
Another poster below has already mentioned the huge amount of debt. Whilst debt of that size has been turned around before in similar circumstances, this company needs some VERY good news to have any chance of paying it back or to have any chance of renegotiating the bonds in 2020.
I am not a holder, and I am definitely not a shorter. I would consider taking a position if things improve.
But we’ll get back and more tomorrow
Nickel - just stating facts. You suggested to people they should sell NOG at 8p, and the shares are up 200%+ from that point. I profited and you got it badly wrong. Happy to keep the FXPO chat for that board - but needless to say you are losing money on your position. At 1x ev:sales for a cyclical iron ore pellet supplier your rec is about as dull as dishwater. ATB :)
Wiggammer - you and others are only validating my case. You and others make things personal without having a fundamental argument . As my situation here , I have called it repeatedly short from 100p so I’m doing absolutely fine thanks ! As for FXPO, a new position . One that’s trading at TWO times profits and below NAV . Oh and a 11% div at these prices !
Re NOG, I will continue to make the sell case as that’s how I read up. The company has no chance of paying back $1bn to creditors
I see no reason to hide such good news if that were the case.
They promised to launch the third gas processing unit, before the end of the 3rd quarter. I think if they had already launched, they would have given an announcement.
Solid support at 24.85-25.60.
Immediately after significant growth, a technical correction began. To continue climbing, you must confirm a solid support level of 20-21 pence.
I’m happy to let the market be the independent arbiter, nickel. You repeatedly lose money on your FXPO position, and I’m up 150% here in a matter of weeks, the latter achieved by doing the precise OPPOSITE of what you suggested at 8p. Enjoy your 10% yield at FXPO while it lasts - fundamentals about to take a great big slice out of that. ATB :)
Just as you spout your nonsense FPP add again at 30p.
and For those that ignorantly point to other companies with huge debt you are forgetting so many items . One - they at least are chipping it away ! Two - others have a boepd growth story ! I’m sorry, you can sell assets but it’s not going to pay back $1.1bn in debt and then you’ve got hardly any production left anyway even if you do sell some
Down ! This needs oil above $110 to have any chance of survival and then there’s nothing left for shareholders. Sorry to say but all the ramping in the world isn’t going to make any difference to the real fundamental outlook here. And instead of getting so upset, try and respond !