Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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Poker, house prices won't drop hugely because of constant interest rate hikes. They will just completely stagnate the housing market. This is already happening. Only those desperate to sell or forced to sell due to moving job or buying something way out of their income bracket in the first place will reduce prices. People who've bought their properties say 15-20 years+ ago will just put off selling. All a vicious circle IMO as FTBs cannot buy so housebuilders struggle. This causes unemployment which extends down the supply chain. Personally i'm avoiding stocks in HBs & retail atm as i think they could get hit even further down the line! Agree that the UK economy has been in a bit of a dream world for many years now!
"Not really sure what could turn the tide here other than interest rates going down, but I don’t think they’ll ever go sub 3% again."
That is what you ideally want ..
you want a thriving economy that is growing and as such interest rates are say 3% to match that good economy..
Of course you also want house prices to match that , at more sensible levels...
Of course the last decades has actually been a disaster..not that many people seem to realise it..... interest rates too low, house prices too high, money supply in excess and too much cheap debt as a consequence ...
Take a coach instead
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1664881407544492032
When the revenue from those contracts appears in the financials, is what is significant. Margins are low in this type of business so volumes of business inflow are crucial!
Hi Paddy, yes growth companies like Tesla are highly valued because of hope value of what they can achieve in future. But Nex is an established bread and butter business. Not really sure what could turn the tide here other than interest rates going down, but I don’t think they’ll ever go sub 3% again. I think there’s already been a few contract wins recently but never affected the SP.
Many companies have high valuations & have never, ever turned a profit. As an extreme example TESLA is valued in squillions but only started turning profit last year. There's been a pandemic that's why NEX is not valued higher. They are making all the right moves IMO according to published RNSs to rebuild post pandemic. Inflation & a high interest environment may present problems here if they persist for multi years which is unlikely but they are hedged against uncertainty at least in the near term. This business is not a crypto or an AI type business. This is a huge multi national public transport company. There is little competition & huge barriers to entry. People need keenly priced public transport as the cost of vehicle ownership will surely become unaffordable for many. Valuation wide. Who knows depends on contract awards & such like but contracts seem to be falling into place here (think Porto/German Rail etc). Only time will tell! You only make profit when there is risk. At current prices the upside to this SP hugely outweighs the downside. Once the short sellers call it a day here this worm will turn significantly!
I’m really conflicted with this share. On the one hand it appears cheap when you look at the SP chart. On the other hand it is still valued at around £700m mcap while making a loss, and has a negligible book value (exc goodwill).
Compare that with marstons for example which has also been battered down due to debt and is now worth just over £200m mcap but on the face of it has better financials than nex both in terms of profitability and net assets.
So my question is what do people value the underlying business in nex at and why?
You're taking on a lot of risk though.. £30k/40/50k.. for a few £hundred/£1k+.... they could tank quickly, for whatever reason, and you could be sitting on a loss for a long time.. just saying,.. its risky..
I took some comfort in no intraday pull back, i actually assumed it was going to finish 1% up.. so roll on Monday...
Been chasing National Express down from 198 to 106, I break even @131, which I think is likely... i'm in for long-run though. I like that it's changing it's name.. it sparks interest in understanding the rationale .. which will hopefully be a catalyst for more people understanding the company is more than National Express white buses (whilst also pleased they aren't changing the actual name on the National Express white buses!).
I agree Registerme, expect resistance at 140 and to some extent 120, but ulitmately a fairly obvious trading range between the two. Well said.
The chances of this stabilising in the 130’s are slim to none. It would either carry on rising, or more likely come back down as happened on results.
The important fact is it shows no cash raise, or profit warnings. It'll still bounce about a bit, but stabilising in the 130 zone for a while would do me
Good to see an UT buy for a change a too .
~700k
While I agree that Director buying does not guarantee anything, it is certainly preferable to those BOD's on huge salaries without any skin in the game. Especially when they often have generous freebie options on top, without clear conditions attached, let alone a decent strike price (I am thinking of several of my current and previous holdings with this thought in mind, ahem!)
Anyway, great day today here. Hopefully more of the same next week. Good weekend all.
Personally i'm never too bothered about director buys. I don't think they make much difference really. The THG chairman i recall bought £1m of shares @80p but the SP still dropped as low as 30p. IMO all NEX needs is time. Time to prove to the markets that the debt is easily serviceable & is being reduced by growing revenues & new revenue streams coming in. In time inflationary pressures will ease; interest rates will come down. I'm completely relaxed with this investment & still can't believe i ever got opportunities to buy this again at less than £1.50. Not one to microanalyse on an intraday basis. The rerate will come here in time. Just one to accumulate while the price is still low which is all i've been doing anyway. Hugely overweight in this now but can't resist a bargain!
The Directors buy and hold for ..what 2-3 years or whatever ...the market is reacting to the day to day ... so ... it is the macro that is more important ..you have have a fine ship and the Captain can know how to sail...but you need wind in the sails to assist with moving it along.....and that is the macro right now ....
Don't knock it. This is a rise and it's holding. As I mentioned Futr had a similar rise after an £800k director buy and lost it the same day (and is continuing to drop). It's not the size of the director buy that matters, it's what you do with it.
Well we all know at what price to pile in at if the shorts take us down again.
Was looking for a bigger rise what with all markets powering ahead & director buys.
lets hope its 1 step forward followed by a few more
gla
Not too bad a rise today, but put it in context FTSE well up today also, so to say all those director buys not up a great deal, Time will tell next week if it has done the job and turned the share around.
The market in the US is taking the jobs report positively....wage growth lower than expected
suggests to me the jobs market is balancing the economical labour needs better..unemployment up too.....makes finding bus drivers easier with wage pressures peaked
Today is quite a buoyant market for all given the debt ceiling resolution in the US. The director dealings are positive of course but not sure if their effect is that great (yet).
Jeez, this thread!!
Half term can't finish soon enough
Yep, IMO anyone selling around these ranges is really just a chancer. This is just a buy zone for me at present. This will reward the patient well. No doubt more toads like this twit will appear again but who cares. I see Manz disappeared & thet Terry fella didn't hang about too long either!
Paddy
He can do whatever he wants with regards the market....but it really shows the character of these people when their modus operandi is to deliberately attempt to get the very posters they have sort views from on their way up to making any kind of profit...to then sell their shares in fear right down at the bottom lows.... just so they can make 2-3p on a trade