Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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watching white house cv update - ultimate bs, trying to switch attention to something else, ridiculous, turns out they have absolutely nothing good to say about covid-19 .. lol..
Yuri.F - We have not learned from the past 2008/9. That was the time we should have had business bank to look after their need. IMHO the problem goes back to the late 70's, when all the building society's were allowed to convert to bank a like and Insurance companies. At that time everyone did well in their business field and big players were not able to sequeeze the small players. Every body made profit in their field. GREED.
P.S. Just finished my IT contract with one of insurance corps - everyone "works" remotely, I've a feeling productivity dropped by 50-80% (other businesses even worse, especially in non-IT segments, thankfully there's drop in demand - so sort of balanced).. obviously it's unjustified to expect high performance of operations, it needs some time to adjust for new realities..
There are huge problems with loan control mechanics (incl. fraud), demand for resources just to prepare loan (contract terms, business validations), then question on inter-temporal shifts between loan-programme tightening and loan maturities (incl. bad loans with delays), plus what to do with all these close to impairment loan portfolios (disposal) - at discount or just writing down and getting money from BoE/HMT (waves of control/fraud prevention and associated costs).. etc..
They can't be serious expecting system to respond instantly on all of this (even banks are feeling significant squeeze on human resources to process all of it).
Here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52126658
at the bottom it says:
"...Businesses have also complained of banks charging interest rates of up to 30%..."
Well, obviously, it's subprime times after all (lots of businesses will go bust anyways during this significant transformations) and for subprime times - subprime rates apply (surviving businesses pay for defaults/losses of failed ones)
Currently there's no much trust for "gov guarantees" because everyone understands that politically there's significant difference between giving promises and keeping them (plus huge list of "terms and conditions apply")..
So unless they sign up for clear/reliable and transparent play rules - distrust and very cautious approach will exist on outer rings of lenders..
Current situation is exactly because of this gap in implementation between promise, rules and action (lending facility)..
It might take at least a week to settle.
No one is forcing Banks to take the cheap Money. I think BOE should create a Business Bank to lend, that way you keep the clearing banks out of the loop.
Is anyone listening gov update on CV-19 situation? They're talking about returning favor after banking sector bail-out years ago.. so strong pressure on banks to lend to businesses (with consequent defaults/impairments), let's hope they stand by promises of gov-guarantees, not just pushing for more lending and then fail to provide compensations by building impenetrable barriers to get this compensation afterwards.
I think you'll be fine at those levels Theosus, though I wouldn't get too greedy! I'd be surprised if there weren't some opportunities to bail out and make a bit at those levels. As we know its a tough old game!:-)
See Theosus I get the T/O story, but the question is why buy the whole bank? You are going to be able to pick up the better books of debt at a premium when they become a distressed seller which is to me the likely outcome. Why would you buy all the unprofitable books of business as goodwill if you don't need to? Further why would a major Bank buy an unprofitable Bank in this market when its all about holding on to what you've got??? You would lose your job quite quick as a CEO if you bought another Bank and then spent millions integrating an unprofitable business in to your own, just to then manage the costly disposal of dysfunctional assets. This makes no sense.
Ha! Sorry I'm a bit boring and will have to dissapoint. I have shares in Barrick and got rid of Centamin last week and nicked a few grand. I have a small long term bet in ANIC as its a proprietary industry and just interesting and I have a medium sized bet on HECLA longer term as silver will catch up with gold at some point. That's my lot.
I must confess, I enjoy reading the Tullow share chat as its even more unhinged then Metro. That lot reckon the shares will bounce 200-300% :-)))) with no chance of bankruptcy. I like reading Metro as I can't make any case whatsoever in my head for it, but then there is always a price worth a punt and if it gets to 50p I might take a look otherwise its simply not worth the risk, which is massive as the wave of bankruptcies comes a knocking..!
Theo Thanks.
NKG Hello and hope you are keeping safe and well along with the family.
Amers bought the shares this morning I picked up a new Vantage two weeks ago today. Feels a bit inappropriate in the current climate.
I didn't understand, what you mean, if you are having a go at me or what. Please explain little more. Thanks.
Just 35 years of experience, intuition and a bit of research and knowledge Franky.
Amers bought the shares this morning I picked up a new Vantage two weeks ago today. Feels a bit inappropriate in the current climate.
Anyway how is your basket case of shares doing. Tullow, NMC etc ? Don’t worry about me Franky I’ll get through this physically and financially..
Focusing on value haha. Like you know what that is. It does sound good though. So what formula and stats are you using to identify "value" prey tell-). Does it involve a finger and some air by chance??
Theo, you have been and currently you're still more bearish and more cautious than me.
I stayed out, I kept my clients out, I'm buying at pre 1999 levels, I'm buying banks in some cases 50% below their almost bankrupt valuations in 2008/9.
The market knows roughly where this virus is heading, it's trying to gauge the peak and work out when there will be a viable vaccine and when we're all able to go out and play again.
I significantly reduced on the recent spike and went short indices again to provide a hedge to what I'm holding, there is money to be made in the current volatility and it shores up short term losses on my value bets. The real mistake here will be to try and guess the bottom and miss out, value and time not price is the key..
T
NCYT was one I completely missed. I saw posts about it when it was in the 20-25 range and didn't think they would get to 200+. Missed out on that one.
Cash is king and markets will keep dipping IMO, massive opportunities if you can keep powder dry.
But why pile in at the top of the cycle after the longest bull run in history. Fuelled by 10 years of trillions of dollars of cheap money and risk chasing risk for the fear of missing out ?
FWIW, I think we’re slowly building a base at around 5000 on the FTSE and I entirely agree that buying tickets at these levels will be money well spent. Ignoring volatility and focusing on value will pay off - it’s only a matter of time.
T
This is my 4th major market "crash" and every previous one has always recovered. I would suggest reading about cycles and markets before even reading or learning about trading/ investing.
I'm much more of a macro than micro investor. Cycles first, hence the long time frame.
Get that profit Amers, all good!
T
As this is a metro BB, I don't share much of my other investmenets (I did mention ecommerce, which is underestimated by many in the sheer revenue and net it can produce - multiple 6 to 7 figure net profit months are quite common depending on the products, industries and markets one operates in).
Stock buys other than a few days ago when someone opened a thread about other stocks. I've always said I don't buy much FTSE - as you'll see by my posting history here, metro has since Q2-3 2019 been an exception. Rationale for metro has always been a recovery - then lead to event-driven decision.. Might take years, it doesn't bother me at all.
Likely I will be buying some BARC and LLOY soon when I feel the time is right.
It might sound strange to some here and I've been attacked about it when shared my position and numbers -- metro is a small holding for me and my style is quite different to many traders/ investors.
I mainly buy big and heavy, hold for years (5-10 is a normal time frame for me), and so I don't worry about the daily fluctuations much and being multiple 6 figures in the red is perfectly acceptable for some time. Some are not comfortable and have outside factors they need to respect and show numbers and performance to and who expect certain results - I am not burdened by that. There was always going to be a massive downfall to stocks after the 10-year run, not surprising, and I sold several US positions before Covid in december 2019.
Going long and heavy in a couple US banks, boeing and a few techs (like I mentioned, 1-2 top market leaders) in 2 weeks ago will most likely prove to be a big win in 5-10 years time, the world and markets will recover as they always do. I anticipate further decline in US markets, and again, not bothered at all if that happens. Will buy more of the businesses I expect to be doing will in a decade or so.
I do understand that my style is not for everyone, but has worked very well for me.
As always, not advice, just IMO and one must DYOR.
Good approach Amers, that’s the route I’m going to take in the future.
Lots of little opportunities which build up the pot over time rather then trying to get big.
Theo - Bought AML this morning paid 78.42 and now selling at 107 showing profit of 40%. Just trying to make few pence here and there. Not big player like you guys.
Everything is dropping Mister Tombo, and will most likely keep dropping for a while.
Might be good to stay away from screen for a bit. All the best
This needs some positive news on steroids!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g53udCXpuY