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Yes I agree, but also hope for a quick correction, as they are doing buy backs soon after
Looks like we will be at around. 430 to 440 tomorrow. Usually fall a little more than the divi.
Yes agreed re the lack of synergies. Helpfully, it looks like the market is also of the same view re a sale or in any event, a rerating.
There’s certainly no synergy between OH and TICC (without the HR glue in the middle)
I think OH will be sold so Ever I think you’re right
Could be, we will get a juicy dividend, see the SP ExD then rise back a little as the share it backs kick in. After that I think it’s vulnerable to an M&A. Suffice to say holistically undervalued buy around 50p to 80p at current SP when looking at the sum of the values IMHO
Is it me or is that rns making it look like further preparation for a sale? New NED that is the CEO of a business that Lord Ashcroft sold in Dec 23. Kevin Quinn leaving, still no CEO announced.
Let’s wait and see who is announced into the CEO and Chair positions but if they are ‘steady as she goes’ appointments, then for me, that would be confirming a sale strategy in the medium term.
Special divi payment and ex div dates.
Why are you expecting an RNS?
Rns after hours tonight or Monday. Any guesses?
As he is a director his shareholding is always notifiable even if it is a single share
So I think he’s now at 0
Might be wrong
I read the rns as being he has no notifiable interest I.e Ashcroft has bought 3.4m of his shares therefore Alex still retains 1.2m but this is below notification requirements (i.e. 3% threshold), although I may be wrong?
Agree with your points on the m&a- the number of companies kicking off buybacks at the moment is very high, so clearly shows uk equities as good value for corporates’ cash
A little sad that Alex doesn’t see value in the remaining business. If it’s worth more why wouldn’t he hold?
But equally very positive for the Chairman to decide to drop £18m on this!
I agree this makes a sale of the business more likely I think that’s also evident by the buy back ie not much M&A planned, get the businesses to a steady state and then buyers will have a clean period to evaluate
Atm both OH and TICC have had too much M&A to truely show the underlying businesses
That’s an interesting development on the shareholdings. Removes the potential overhang of Dacre’s shares nicely! Interesting also that Ashcroft sold Impellam in Dec 23. Does his increase in control here make a sale more possible?
Thanks Corryvreckan1. It will be interesting to see if the buyback purchases then offset some of the potential selling pressure caused by it going ex-div. The buyback will be up to c.12m shares and there are 1.5m shorts outstanding. Potentially some reinvestment of dividends too?
We certainly need some further clarity on the numbers and strategy - assume new ceo will be announced alongside completion?
For dividends, the Stock Exchange requires minimum 6 business days public notice prior to the Record Date which is normally a Friday, so if Marlowe do provide the formal declaration of the dividend on the 31st then the earliest XD date would be Thursday 13th June, or any Thursday thereafter.
Payment then likely within a few weeks as TP says, and in any case no later than 30 business days (6 weeks) after the Record Date, although I suspect they won't wait that long.
Cheers
I couldn't see it anywhere in the release, but would expect them to announce it alongside the deal completion, ie on the 31st May. Guessing the buyback and special will be soon after that. Can't imagine they would be able to do it all on the same day, so maybe it goes ex-div a couple of weeks later at a guess, ie mid June, payment generally a few weeks after ex-div date so maybe early July. All speculation, could be earlier, but definitely wont be before 31st May.
Does anyone know the xdivi and payment dates for the special dividend.
Mixed update today I thought. £75m buy back is positive and should support the shares, and business has outperformed on cash which is always good. I've been trying to piece together the FY24 performance. At headline level EBITDA is about £4-5m behind what I was expecting.
- I think OH is doing OK and probably up about 3% yoy in revenue (£111m) but maybe down a bit on profit due to the lost customer reducing volumes. I think this is probably better than some expected given the customer loss, and they are winning new contracts which is positive for outlook.
- However, I can't get the TIC numbers to square unless TIC has gone backwards organically quite a lot in H2, which is not what I expected given it grew organically 6% in H1 and did acquisitions that probably added about £20m in annualised revenue also. It did £149m in H1, so given FY24 was £292m (vs £272m in FY23), H2 was only £143m, vs £142m H2 last year, so flat yoy despite M&A. Probably down 6-7% organically in H2, and no organic growth overall in FY24 (eg something like +6% in H1, -6% in H2).
-This is probably the reason EBITDA is about 10% behind where I expected.
- I'm slightly uneasy that they haven't communicated the above in their trading update, ie not giving any organic growth figures, or divisional EBITDA figures. Both are pretty important to understand the business imho.
As a result of the above, and the decent performance of the stock today (and the fact mine it was not in an ISA so the special divi would have attracted high tax rate) I've sold out for now. I still think this is worth 700p+ medium term, and with the buyback the shares could continue to be strong so I can understand those who want to stick with it, but I'm going to sit it out until the special is paid, and there is more clarity on trading. Hopefully will be another bite at the cherry down the road...
Unfortunately we’ve just sold the part of the business that does this
There was a useful new compliance article this week on the website of NWT (Newmark Security) subsidiary company Grosvenor Technology:-
"Compliance as a Catalyst: How Regulations Shape Our HCM Solutions
In today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, compliance with data protection laws has become ever more vital."
http://www.grosvenortechnology.com/insights/compliance-as-a-catalyst-how-regulations-shape-our-hcm-solutions/
Another significant volume day. Noticed that one of the shorts reduced marginally (c.40k shares) yesterday. The market is still very strong so surely a positive outlook statement is becoming more likely. Can’t be too far off some news now - they would usually issue final results in the next 6 weeks but I would imagine they will do a deal update rns first
Yes, true re the funds selling, if a buyback. I’m working on the assumption that if trading is at least in line with prior guidance, then there should be a reasonable re rating upwards, given the overall market has picked up.
Ideally, one of the potential TIC acquirers from last year may resurface with a bid, as the financing environment and interest rates outlook is much clearer than mid 23. We shall see I guess.
With the high volume though and the business changing fundamentally I think funds will just sell into the buy back. It also gives some of the shorts wiggle room
All my shares are in an ISA. I think you’re right though that it will be buy back as Lord Ashcroft won’t want to have a big tax bill