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why?
I bought 60k Capita shares and they are in the same boat and in some ways much more penalised for it in the SP. Both companies revenue is multiples higher than market cap. Both turnaround companies and both declined over years. Both stocks will multi-bag imo over the next 10 years.
Probably right there! For me I keep saying I don't see the risk. If a company has no product or service that's in demand then yeah but in it big data / security or operations then all companies will keep investing forever.
>It's funny how they associate the debt with bankruptcy risk though.
I took it as a bit of a throw away, almost disclaimer
You know what they are like for suing over the pond
It's funny how they associate the debt with bankruptcy risk though. I'm pretty sure MCR could spin off vertica and list it which would generate funds or even selling it which would clear the debt in 1 go. For me it's stupid to mention a risk when the sum of parts is much greater than the current market cap
Thanks Mark. That pretty much sums up why I'm also holding / adding. Even if they just deliver what they project, recovered confidence should deliver a SP of an appropriate multiple of the $500m free cash flow. And if their potential higher growth sales lines (Vertica and other analytics) can deliver real revenue growth, the upside is considerably higher. Management have successfully pulled off the build, implementation and transition of the single 'Stack C' set of systems and processes. That was a huge challenge, a major distraction from actually running the business and (potentially) as significant sales growth enabler. Hopefully that leaves them free to get the SP back up into the £20+ zone again (back in the days when they were targeting £30+).
Some movement happening here, is it because of EX dividend date tomorrow? or is there something brewing in background..........very quiet
The only thing ill say is that buying market share is never profitable. It will become even more so in this high rate and inflation environment. I hope MCRO starts to improve in this area whilst staying highly FCF positive.
First bit of decent from you about the company. It was noted three years ago they required more sales teams in the field. If this indeed happened, why do the sales still decline. Why is our competitor customer base increasing.. is it at the expense of ours?
Guidance is everything. Weeds need taken out to allow the grass to grow.
We are still seen as a risky stock so we will be hurt worse on bad market days. Darktrace has increased its customers to 6500 from 4600 in 6 months. You gotta ask yourself why Micro is so damn useless at doing the same thing. Same with Snowflake and Splunk. All massive customer gains.
This has got into the £3.50s faster than I anticipated. You’d have thought we would be more resilient with products supposed to assist with cyber are not as heralded in the markets as some would suggest.
Cyber security is at the forefront of most companies thoughts and I’m not surprised. Darktrace has went up a good bit due to this.
It's a great time to buy shares at the minute. These opportunities don't come round often.
I would say investing in any cyber security is a good call because of this war. Half my meetings in the last week have been due to this and Customers looking at how they can prepare for any new threats etc so I expect companies to invest massively in this space. MCR should be well positioned going forwards.
Price is just being pushed around by manipulators who prey on volatile stocks. Ive been watching other stocks and they barely move down or up most of the time. Wider market is also under a sell off. Given the situation in Europe right now anything is possible with investments but we need to remember that time is a positive for MCRO as the next 12 months should see the back of the bad news and place us well for the next cycle once Ukraine is resolved one way or another.
With the Ukraine conflict and concerns about cyber security world wide one would imagine MicroFocus to be in demand, this will come good with more demands for IT security in my view, the drop is unjustifiable and can only put it down to the world events and stock market sentiments.
Blimey, my whole portfolio is down 9k, and thought that was bad..
Hey, good luck to you guys..
It’s only money and as much as I’m fuming the way this company has been run, micro and the money I have in here won’t change my life if it goes pop. There is a very big grey cloud hanging over my kids and every other throughout the world. Delta, omicron now this. I fear for their future.
Won’t be posting for a while as it is trivial compared what’s going on. Gla
Not sure there was any good news 3 years ago. Hard to see if fall this much but thats what makes it a good buy today. Good news is due November 2022 i think. Once you sell up though it will likely recover more and you will lose 50k the other way.
Locked in I’m afraid. 60k paper loss as of yesterday. Substantially more now. Almost sold yesterday, hindsight is a great thing. Been in this for over 3 years and looking forward to the day I’m not. I thought I had timed this correct . Share price had lost 60% of recent highs and thought the bad news was out, Steven came in 3 months later and no hope has been offered from him, only more descent into the abyss.
What have I learnt over this period?. If a share goes down 90% do not be under the illusion it can’t go another 90 from there.
When I get back to 50k down I’m out!
I’ll use this as an offset for tax purposes.
Because it directly competes with Micro which is also listed in the US and 65% of its revenue is in the US. MCRO traded at 25 quid a share and was both on the US and UK market. So clearly that is not the real issue.
Just wait till the Nasdaq opens up. 6% decline is nothing compared to what you will see over in the US tech index. Micro has barely moved in 12 months but the average nasdaq stock is 50-80% down. Even the big ones are down massively.
If you dont like the stock why are you here?
Lol..
why are you so concerned with an American share?
As said, it’s irrelevant what Splunk is doing or valued at, to me anyway but not you.
Guidance is everything and ours is very poor.
We are undervalued but as heralded by some and ignored by others we have a fairly chunky debt in comparison to our turn over. Perhaps, just perhaps this is why?? Oh, I know we are paying it off..... blah blah.. why are we paying dividends and not paying down the debt should be the big Q for private investors. We are also one of the biggest fallers today. Along with companies with a vested interest in Russia and or travel. Both those sectors can be explained easily due to current hostilities. We just like to fall!
Sorry but thats wrong. Splunk was trading 100 USD in 2018. Thats 4 years gains wiped out in the US. 200USD to 100 USD. There is a professional money stock bubble in the Nasdaq and its been correcting for 2 months.
Splunk is still worth 20 billion USD. Has worse financials than MCRO and had to sack its CEO last year.
Buffet buys undervalued companies because thats how you make money investing. If you think MCRO is worth 2 billion USD with 2.9 billion revenue and circa 400-500m USD FCF you are a fool. If they can sell 90m revenue for 330m that shows you the value of their revenue on the real market. Not the stock market which is a product of speculation and fashion at any given time. This is why even Facebook, Tesla and Netflix can lose 30-50% of their value in days.
Strathy, thanks for the reply.
CEO last bought at 333p ish, that will be my entry point.
If it doesn't get to that level, there's plenty of opportunities out there.. ATB
Panda,
The question asked was why is there such a disconnect between the two companies. I gave you the answer. As alluded to previously Micro had none of the surge experienced by almost all stocks and especially those tech related which were carried on the euphoria of others across the pond. Splunk falls into this basket.
I agree entirely with the numbers but to compare is totally irrelevant. We are a recovery stock. Many, many poor reports have stalled the recovery.
I put down to poor leadership and direction, you and other don’t. Your prerogative.
I think it was you who stated Goldman were brought in for advise which Steven is following? Mmmm
If your CEO needs advise on how to turn things around, you need a new one. He will dance to whatever tune needed to keep his £850k salary and bonus! Fascinatingly, he qualified for around a quarter of his bonus. I read that as 3/4 miss of target and why would you be rewarded for what did go well?
A COO is not a CEO there are loads out there. You don’t need to know the company inside out to improve it! Re Goldman!
Strathy.
Sorry but do even watch the US markets? Some Nasdaq shares are down 80% in 1 day. 2 billion is a small cap stock in the US and they have been HAMMERED since Jan 2nd. Micro listed on the NYSE does 65% of its income in the USA. Most stocks are trading back at 2019 prices and some record lows with IPO's selling off to almost zero value.
Splunk 2.2bln Rev (-5.5%) . COGs 414m
Micro 2.9bln Rev ( -5.4%) COGS 313m
Splunk Margin -29%
Micro Margin 36%
Net FCF over 20,21
Splunk - -600m loss
Micro 700m gain.
Micro will recover or get bought out. both lead to massive profit.