Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
You’re maybe right
If you look at articles from years ago, the last time they raised their stake to 18% it was too late to get enough shareholders to approve
This time they have 23% directly already and potentially going in with azvalor at 3%.
I think the Cosmens will buy all the way up to 30% on the cheap and Azvalor will provide the rest of the cash. c£200-£300m
Anything could happen here really, but hoping its a bid of at least 140-150 if it happens. Cant imagine the board accepting something much lower than that considering it was 120 12 months ago, and 90 4 months ago. Business has shown that its resilient and makes good revenue.
Honestly, as they have announced the sale of NA, i cant imagine them accepting an offer before they see that through or exhaust all bids, else why even mention it.
It's easy to blame the management but I think its more about macro economics and a poor business model (that was set in place before the present CEO and CFO). As an investor I didn't read this right .. Some people also have outdated views on British business these days
I think Cosmens are just averaging down as much as anyone else .. They just buying when there is a new all time low
" pathetic margins & ROCE etc etc"
I will play the devil´s advocate and maybe pretend to be the BOD fighting back on criticisms to keep some hope and sense of fighting through the issues
The interesting thing is that the new contracts
Alsa - margins of 12% av. ROCE 23%
Shuttle - margins of 10% av. ROCE 31%
I think that the BOD and the new UK/German and US Bus Leaders are fighting back on a number of issues
US Bus Driver shortages down to 2% ...990 new drivers and training in 2023 is not bad effort
US Bus driver shortage down to 6% , only 17% of applications get offered a position and of those 15% dont take the position offered , despite the pay increase !!
Imagine what it would be without the pay increase !!
Germany 70 new train drivers trained compared to 22 in 2022
1000 new drivers needed within their operating region !!!
The revenue in Transit up 10% but the loss of support funding of $44m knocked the profit down , and tech like Google etc cut down on volume cost $25m as job losses increased ...14 new contracts to offset that with $54m ..fighting back !!
Evolve strategy. Well if this is what they call evolution we might as well all pack up & go!
Yes, agreed a disaster & my worst investment by far. Hoping for a Kin & Carta day here & ruing the day i didn't move a chunk of these into that when it was 60p. Instead i sold what i had with the takeover profits & threw it at this dog. Ne'er mind. 2025 isn't that far away!
Mavswf
You're far from alone and I echo your comments.
You're right it's a great board this, ( not Garat and Co!!!), and the posts and views are invaluable to some.
Agree mavswf by far the worse investment I've made to and the management should be ashamed of themselves letting the s.p get this low. Let's face it, we could have done a much better job !
I’m about £75k down here now having loaded up several times to average down and continued to catch the falling knife. It’s easily the worst investment I’ve ever made and a big lesson learned. The rank bad mismanagement by the BOD and mistakes piled on mistakes have really caught us all out and it’s almost like they’ve been actively working to destroy our share price. It’s basic incompetence but seems like it has been done with Machiavellian intent the way that things have played out. But the worm will eventually turn here and we’ll either get taken out or we’ll see a recovery in the price eventually as this is a crazy low price for this business today. Inflation and interest rates will drop, MCG can increase the prices on loss making routes or cancel them , and with some proper financial management there’s a solid long term business here. Barriers to entry are high and it’s not like they’re going to see multiple new competitors setting up to destroy their already wafer thin margins, it’s a business that can be turned around relatively quickly if the right people are running it. Like with RR.
I really appreciate the views and analysis of some of the posters on here as I get so annoyed and frustrated with the way this has panned out. It slightly helps my mood to read that the views of a lot of you in here are quite similar to mine which is that we need to be patient and not panic … as bad as things have been.
Smokey, The levels being touted on here are silly. I doubt they'd be interested in anything less than140-150 as a serious bidder even that seems ridiculously low. The SP here was 92 p just a couple of months back. The underlying business here is running in much the same way as it was prior to the pandemic as i see it. All businesses are fully operational. This company should be profitable & earnings should be much higher. That has not happened mainly due to management failures IMO. Poor due diligence on contracts; pathetic margins & ROCE etc etc. All these things can be turned around with the right leadership. I think the new CFO could be a turning point. She won't have been given the job after a cuppa & a half hour chat. She would have had to now what she's coming into & probably present to a few board members. I personally think it's sad where this company is at. This is a great brand. A household name. I get it that a lot of peeps on here want a bid. If you've just bought in it's a quick earner but i think this business is worth far more. Cosmen knows that too. Let's face it. he's going to be more underwater than most on here but i don't think he'll be worried will he.
Why would they offer more than the prices mentioned Paddy ? Only so much premium they will add from this ridiculous low.
I honestly can’t believe the share price is down here. I bought 48k worth of shares at 120p and sold out at 66p for a substantial loss. Rotated this into some other stocks and have made back a large portion. Thinking about a re entry but the management here have really messed up. Those chasing this down will probably be okay but I would come to terms your money is dead for a long time. Let’s face it there are much better investments in the short term, but if you are into recovery plays I’m sure this will yield well in the long term. So many UK stocks are battered down to ridiculous prices. The LSE is a casino.
Seems to me that a profit warning unlikely anytime soon. If anything management will have been overly cautious on guidance because of previous mishaps. The move down today was probably triggered by the spike in US ten year yields. But these are unlikely to go higher than 5%, which is roughly where they were when the company refinanced the Eurobond at 4.75% last year. The Cosmens buying is good, you'd think they know what they are doing, and whilst they might be just averaging down like many of us, it's more likely that they either want to buy the company or stop it being bought by someone else on the cheap because they see real long term value. I'd be shocked if there was a capital raise with share price here and company easily paying interest payments with stable Investment Grade credit rating.
Move down in the Nasdaq and the first AI profit warning (Meta) is good for Mobico and stocks like it. Reduces Wealth Effect in US bringing us closer to rate cuts, and if Nasdaq trend continues down, good for "value" names like Mobico. Also oil price has been remarkably subdued, which is also good for inflation expectations.
This stock could triple over the next year or 2.
Lots of quotes for bid prices on here being based on current today's ticker price which is an all time ever low. No bid would be entertained remotely near that price IMO.
There will almost certainly be a bid in the coming months and at a good percentage higher than we're at now, 85p. Same thing happened with Stage Coach
LW, yes the shorts here are really fairly miniscule but an increase isn't good obviously & marshall wace have a habit of getting it right. However i suspect they are well hedged against any short squeeze anyway. It's to be expected anyway given the current state of play. Personally i don't think this week has been too painful overall at least it could have been much worse. The nationalisation stuff sounds like desperate propaganda from the Tories & nothing more to me given it's an election year!
JG, yes, it does feel like this is all a bit stage managed by Cosmen et al!
While I never like to see a short like MW on one of my holdings, and the bears have plenty of justifiable criticism to level at the BOD and the company itself right now, it is not like we are in the top two or three of the most shorted stocks (at the time of print - and hope this comment ages well!)
Nationalisation? With what money? I've heard that one before. And if it does happen, it will not be at the expense of shareholders. If it is...then we are going to have far bigger things to worry about than merely our stake here, because IMO it would signify something like a reset.
Anyway, am going to try and chart this one for some potential trades in the medium term. If a take out happens, all good. If not, going to try and make a few quid trading it, if I can. GLA.
From a selfish point of view, I hope the bid price is at least 65p so I can slightly make some profit on this lol
Josey
a full takeover is a pretty big undertaking at a time when the business needs absolute full attention of the BOD and indeed Cosmen as Deputy Chairman and indeed a new interim CFO to ensure stability
If Cosmen is indeed going along with the US Bus sale to get cash to invest in ALSA model then I am not sure he would look at a takeover at the moment ???.... plus all the problems going on in the world, inflation, FED, US Election,geo-politics etc ...
MW increased the last three days and the TR1 came out today after they increased yesterday.
Really can't imagine Cosmen telling any short fund his intentions.
The company does not appear to be in financial distress like for example PFC.
I'm wondering whether the Cosmen / Garat bromance is coming to an end, or we are approaching the endgame of the biggest orchestrated demise in a company by a major holder and CEO to regain control of Alsa on the cheap.
I’m with you
Shorters either holding price down for the bidder to buy up to 30% on the cheap or short term speculation ie they expect US PCE to topple markets tomorrow
The bit I don’t get is why on earth would shorts increase into a major holder increasing. The only reason you’d do that is if you know for fact they will stop and have no intention of a takeover?
Regardless of any sale or cash raise; the minimum they would have to bid is 85p. I’ve been reading up on the UK takeover code. A bidder must not bid at notes than the highest price paid for the target shares in the prior 6 months.
Happy to be corrected.
Would not be surprised if there is another profit warning in the next few months. Premptive action could be cash raise or ALSA sale, the further the sp decline the more the market is signalling this eventuality in my opinion.