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Please remember, no tenants have paid rents for 3 months, and discussions are ongoing as to when full rents will resume. I agree we are all desperate to get serving, but the days of wall to wall customers was gone before this happened, so it’s going to be a struggle.
As I also stressed before , Marstons new build pubs, were geared for non stop food all day, at discount prices, and serious numbers to keep them full. Just don’t get carried away here when Boris makes his statement.
The only sure winners here were the clever ones who got in at around 20p.
Too many are looking at the World through rose tinted glasses. Remember the company will be making an update this week, which should go some way towards indicating the direction of travel.
As mentioned many times, Pubs were in decline before CV19, and will now speed up the "cull".
How many Pubs ( closed currently) are you seeing, look untidy, in need of a good clean ( externally). Would'nt this lockdown have been an ideal time to smarten up the appearance? Who is going to be attracted by a tardy looking pub?
Fairdealer, I think you are right to point out that the pub industry was suffering pre Covid but I believe this was priced in and at £1.20ish per share that was a fair price for Marstons. The fact that the new normal for pubs might affect the important foot fall and food factor and in turn this will affect overall turnover, profits and share price is a concern. The deal with carlsberg should be a positive but there’s possible closures to be concerned with which is a negative. All things considered even if the new fair price for marstons is 15-20% below pre Covid prices leaving us at 95-100p it still means we could, and in my humble opinion should, see a nice rise in share price over the coming days/weeks.
A couple of things to add to the mix are:
1. The effect of staycation this year as the money usually spent overseas will be spent in the UK
2. The return to a full sports calendar should benefit beer sales.
An upbeat update would also help.
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I have to agree... surely this is already priced in. The puzzle is why the sp was kicked around last week by the market at 60-65p.
Whereas the Carlsberg deal is a life saver for Marstons ( debt grew to almost unsustanable levels), they will be the major partner. Do not under estimate not only the benefits but also Carlberg have shareholders too.
It should be noted under the terms of the agreement Marstons must retain at least 50% of the estate ( Pubs etc) otherwise in breach of the JV.
The company is probaly under-valued against all known information, however there are a number of unknown factors going forwards .
The market has/will form a view.
priced in... the Boris announcement. It's virtually certain they will go ahead and do it .
fairdealer20, try and be a bit more positive on prospects and emphasize what might go right eg the new regime could galvanize freeholder and tenants alike and it is possible many skint people will make use of domestic offerings. Some of us are invested here but you would never guess you were.
doze as an investor I believe in openess and not blinding others with promises . That may suit those who are making quick bucks...as you should have noticed MARS have attracted a whole raft of inexperienced investors who know little about the company....do you agree??
As LTH I invested into an industry I know a little about and importantly here because of the excellent Dividend.
If it is critical to inform of hard facts I plead guilty. I wish this company to succeed more than anyone and can see the challenges every Business faces.
I do not want to see people being sucked in to lose hard earned money, when they know little about the company.
I find your final sentence offensive... very offensive.
fairdealer2; I thought you might be offended but I invested hear without reading your excellent commentary but when I did I almost sold up. For the time I have been invested you have never said you are although I realise now that you are a very long term holder and therefore your posts are particularly persuasive. It is just a shame they are always negative and I have been anxious you reveal yourself as long which you have finally done.
doze I do not as a rule state my holding or longevity of holding in any stock I hold, but in this instance felt it necessary.
It is/has my intention to open investors eyes...too many believe and use persausive rhetoric to enhance their individual wealth and care little for the uniformed investor. Too many do not research properly companys they invest in, which in my book is a cardinal sin. Some do not know the difference between an AGM and GM, have not read the terms and conditions relating too a JV. I could go on, but then will be regarded as negative!!!!! Just highlighting the facts which are there for anyone to discover, after all that is what committed investors should do.
fairdealer
You have always been accurate and sensible in your posts, please continue making them as those who read them learn something.
I note that Findlay is in today's Daily Telegraph saying that the checking in before drinking plan "is bonkers", which is pretty much what I was driving at in my post at the weekend.