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I do not have the same worries as others here obviously. All I request is now the doors are open again at the pubs that the BOD announce how the sales are now going to bring in additional useful cash flow.
One advantage we have here is cash flow from various sources, which is more than many an airline or travel company can say. Certain caveats or conditions can simply be written in to any deal with Carlsberg to keep CAMRA happy, but I would certainly not now be giving them a club discount! Certainly not a Club sandwich. I can see certain pension fund managers have their toes in the water here, and whilst at the moment they will trickle funds in here when the World turns away from Gold ETF's back into Equities (which could be soon as even the previous metals will turn sooner or later) then this share will rock. Fortunately I have time in my side.
In times of Depression, and make no mistake that is where Global Economies are heading, safe investment havens, apart from Gold, have always been Food and Drink. I will add one further caviat, value of assets and reserves. It has been truly amazing how quickly many Companys and Individuals were in trouble within less than a month after Lockdown. They literally had little or No reserves. I don't believe that situation has been present in previous recessions. In fact it is apparent debt has been running at unsustainable levels. Marstons are no different they had over-borrowed in acquiring Charles Wells, and continued to pay high dividends which some of us questioned.......would have been best to pay down debt and reduce shareholder payments. Under such a Policy, imo, sooner or later a Company paying dividends at the expense of Corporate debt will come unstuck.
If the dividend is to be resurrected within 2 years i.e July 2022, the year end being 30th September , it would be an interim div for the year 21/22. We do not know as yet how company revenues are rejuvenating. It is speculation but reasonable to believe the current year will be in deficit. So that begins us to yr 20/21 where revenues should increase but the unknown carry forwards will be reduced.
It is impossible to predict profits at a level to enable Dividends to be restored. There are many factors to be considered.most impossible to forecast with any accuracy.
As mentioned some while ago, following the CMBC agreement, Marstons have got to re-invent itself to re= build Shareholder value.
Caution is to be had across the board and within all companies.
The same argument and caution would have been paramount back in 2002 and again in 2009 - the dividing factor between which is was the hold intended for 5 days or 5 years.
As to answer fairdeals question I would expect the dividend to be reinstated within a couple of years tops, and with the SP at that time to then be sat much higher than it currently is today.
As to the divide between bulls and bears I’d contrast it more akin to longs vs shorts - traders vs investors. I can hold through a paper loss now if the end result is an even greater profit later. If anything I’d be increasing my position on weakness rather than getting myself in a twist, you know.
Pitter patter
I agree with Fairdealers caution, because what must be realised is that the world rather changed in early Spring for UK co's, but for Marstons it changed beyond any reasonable risk assessment could have ever invasged.Supermarkets can sell online, but Marstons pubs can't sell much online, can they ?
Thus the deal with Carlsberg which many regarded as a disposal of control of the jewel in their crown left therump mars as owners of a string of pubs, motels and a few pitcher & piano bars plus a debt mountain; whereas pre the deal on the jv, Marstons were the largest brewer in the UK, quite a difference to what shareholders owned pre lockdown. Of course the bulls will disagree but I fear holders are in choppy waters at present.
Many bought on dividend yield 2-3 years ago when the SP was above £1.
When do you think MARS will return to the Dividend list?
Yes I was just looking for a clearer picture on that. He took another £100k worth back in 2018. Can see plenty of director buys but no sells. Most likely all holding for the forward looking dividends right, I mean who could blame them.
At current SP this would come across as massively undervalued on a forward looking basis irrespective of the JV, that being the icing on the cake.
Remember the Chairman bought before the referral and consequential delay. Banks do have a whip-hand especially when temporary funding conditions are not met.
I love the use of the word could in that statement.
Bulls will be looking at the positive could‘s just as the bears are focusing on the negative could’s.
Time will tell. If I was a chairman on the other have I would not be putting in £50k of my own money if a RI could be imminent ^^
Bulls should examine the Finances.
The company is heavily borrowed. The delay in Carlsberg completing creates not only uncertainty but the company could be between a rock and hard place.....£70m temporary facility agreed in May is due for repayment in 180 days. The delay in JV completion is likely to be causing some head-scratching at HQ.
CAMRA have history, they referred Marstons aquisition of the Charles Wells brands some 3 years ago, whereas it is very frustrating any delay in funding at these uncertain times does make the Market nervious.
Whether is is liked or not the possiblity of a Rights Issue grows as each day goes by......Banks are in a position to require some kind of Fund raise. A Placing would not be in the interests of Shareholders.
Carlsberg are not interested in whether or not MARS raises funds, they are only interested in the Breweries and Brands, Marstons are left with Pubs and Motels which were due to have £90m spent on capital works this Financial year.
Until we know how revenues are rebuilding it is difficult to see the Company going forward without additional funds
JT - I don't think this share will be worthless even if the Deal with Carlsberg is stalled, as unlike other Pubs/ Hotels Marstons also produce their own beer, and so they have a form of income - whether the pubs are open or not? However I see from the Marstons own web site they see a failure as a remote chance and even want to introduce a new beer as a result.
As I have seen them now selling beer online with Comps such as Amazon, as well as all of the major supermarkets I actually feel they could do well with future drink sales too, and as we expect hotter weather this weekend this will help here too.
Sure it is because the delay in the JV going ahead, and hence creating uncertainty it will? If it doesnt it will be worhless.
Compared to other pubs, this has dropped the most, so its not an industry wide reason the steep decline in the past few weeks?
Correction Thousands and thousands are now considering staying in the Uk for holidays which will help Marstons.
In fact many are not even considering going abroad.
The BBC news has just announced thousands and thousands of people are not re-considering staying in the UK this year which will help Marstons. In fact they should now see a seasonal uplift in bookings. More bookings and more food and drink consumed where the business would otherwise have been taken abroad the money will stay in the UK.
I feel all we need now is an update from the Marstons board as to how events are now in fact unfolding and many will be surprised.
Why would they need any rights issue, if they did want one they would have done it well before the Carsberg deal. Can you imagine just how that would look to Carsberg. Marstons needing more money after doing a deal with them, doesn't show confidence does it.
With this deal now being completed in Oct - Dec the last thing they will need is more uncertanty in the market. Foreget any issue.
These small trades have almost certainly come from a user of the Freetrade app (or similar) which provide commission free trading for any amount of shares down to a single share (yes, if you have 42p in your Freetrade account you can buy a single MARS share commission free). Originally the app used to batch up all the commission free trades and submit them all from 3pm daily so on some of the popular shares you'd see dozens of these tiny trades rolling through from that time, but more recently I believe they push the trades through throughout the day so you can see these tiny trades anytime.
Maybe MM signal codes have some meaning years ago, but not sure anyone has taken them seriously for years now. However if there are some who do still believe in them then the advent of these latest trading apps allowing tiny trades means such notions ought to be consigned to the dustbin pronto.
Check his chat history - Says it all. It’s either headed up if he’s in or emergency rights issue at much lower SPs if he isn’t. Absolutely zero substance
Marstons have secured facilities upto Nov 2020 with funds from Carlsberg due once complete. How did you get a 25p RI value?
Find it strange the company is valued at roughly the same price as the JV price for 60% of brewing business now it's delayed ?? I'm outa here smell a rat
it is going down because it should never have gone up from 18p so strongly with a rights issue needed. The RI price will be 25p, but after the RI the price will fall a lot lower.
Whole travel and leisure sector getting hammered today, last week news re slight delay with Carlsberg didnt help. My local Marstons pubs seem to be getting busier which is encouraging
A month ago this was 70 pence. Falling sharply now.....any reasons?
so what was the code today then?
Its the Market Makers (MM's) sending codes messages to each other
Ususall:
1. 100 - I need Shares.
2. 200 - I need Shares badly but do not take the stock down.
3. 300 - Take (or I am taking) the stock down at least 30% so I can load shares.
4. 400 - Keep trading it sideways.
5. 500 - Gap the stock. Gap can be up or down, depending on direction of 500 signal.
6. 505 - I am short on shares
7. 600 - Apply resistance at the ASK to keep the price from increasing.
8. 700 - Move the price up.
9. 777 - Also recognized as a signal to move the price up.
10. 800 - Prepare for an increase in trading volume.
11. 900 - Allow the stock to float and trade freely.
12. 911 - Pending News/Press Release On The Way
13. 1000 - Don't let it run
14. 2100 - Let it run
Daave,
Citidel slightly increased their short position last week and I would guess that someone taking such a position would ensure the share price opens weak at the bell with those auto trades. It could also mean that someone wants to purchase a large quantity of shares at a discounted price. Take your pick.
The UK and our Euro partners have been threatening to stop shorting for years but never seem to bother. Must suit their agenda in raising tax from trades. It least it would make the market more transparent and offer a little more protection to the private investor.
How come there were 30ish trades for one share at a time again this morning?
Can anyone explain exactly what it is? I’m new to all this and I find it a bit strange?!