The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
T7
Agree that C19 would have to be well and truly suppressed until we can hope to see a share price well beyond 100p
T7
''we'd have to wait until an effective vaccine has been rolled out ''
The market doesn't wait, it is forward looking, and it appears the market is getting more confident by the day that soon, effective vaccines will get Covid 19 under control,hence the current price.
There are obviously going to be profit takers along the way who purchased at much lower levels, but hopefully not too much of a retrace. I have no plans to sell any whilst still in double figures. I will review at the 100p level.
No, I don't see it doubling. Not considering how Covid has disrupted trading for the past 6 months or so. Don't forget that a major peak trading time (Christmas) is also likely to be affected, dependant on whatever lockdown measures are imposed.
The rise in so over the past few days in my view is a knee jerk reaction to the news of vaccines becoming available. I'd say that we'd have to wait until an effective vaccine has been rolled out & started to defeat the virus & we can all start going out more regularly in a more unfettered manner before we see those kind of figures in the sp
There is also the extra QE which inflates asset prices.
Having the choice of a big chain or an independent is better for everyone but I have to agree with you that the table has tilted favourably for the likes of mars, jdw.
Anyone think this could double in 2021? Esp as it will take the room of smaller pubs that have gone bust?
99% to do with Covid 19 vaccine news.
Good to see a high profile investor highlighting Marston. I imagine he got interested in anticipation of good news on the Covid 19 front.
should soon be rolling out their vaccine which AZN are doing on a non profit making basis
94.5% effective
Here at long last. Long may it continue.
Sorry to hear about your fences, you did make me chuckle re Capt Tom.....
It was a great thread you gave over the weekend, I did try to respond however having multiple fences break through lockdown (nice ramblers giving thought to others) I spent 2 days fixing them. A good uplift today and cracking view from Jim on the interview. Tesla man probably still busy inventing his Capt Tom Ale secret recipe........
Looks like Jim Mellon hit the nail on the head, by the date of that interview he was probably responsible for a lot of this run up.
Well done all those who held their water when Tesla man gave his reasons for changing his mind after he sold, they are within spitting distance of his initial 73p target today.
Sorry it is moneyweek not web !
Nov 5 it is dated
A moneyweb youtube of this week has Jim Mellon saying that he believes pub companies are oversold & that he has been buying Marstons. This is just after 13mins into the video.
Well worth watching as he is right far more often than he is wrong
@Fairdealer.
You raise some valid points. It doesn't matter if anyone's POV is popular or not to me personally, if it's a reasoned view that can be backed up with a good rationale, then it's still a good point of view.
Barchid,
Having debated the debt level for more than 2 years, going back to the days of high Dividend payments, sooner or later debt must be addressed. When compared with others in the sector, even >>>Spoons, Marston's balance sheet is not so robust.
Mr Marmite ( Tim Martin) maybe a siren, but even though they have strenghtened their balance sheet, serious concerns from the "Coal-face" is echoing what many already know.
I recieve circulars from Marston's individual hostelries ( where I stay from time to time), and just 5 days ago was informed a particular Motel had closed due to the 2nd lockdown. No mention of a takeaway service etc when other establishments closer to me and not Marstons are operating takeaway service ( did so through the 1st lockdown). Is Marstons missing a trick??
Sales (Income) may decrease, debt will not without fundamental action. Whether or not Bond holders agree further waivers in 3 weeks time remains to be seen. IMO they may well require undertakings that some replacement Funding is raised. We will see, cannot see Bond-holders continually approving waivers without some fundamental undertakings.
AIMO
FD
As usual an incisive critique which I find hard to disagree with.
Debt is an issue , especially the valuations of the properties on which it is secured, hence the 2 alerts yesterday. It is possible they might find a different route, selling off headquarters for instance (which I believe were quite recently expensively refurbed ?), but I see nothing that can really stabilise them like a fund raising exercise. Martin's comments on @Spoons pubs yesterday in the press, although full of his usual bluster, does give a feel for what life is like on the front line & it seems pretty grim to me, particularly with rising unemployment and higher personal taxes being mooted.
Nevertheless for LT holders the situation looks better this week than last, by quite a stretch, thankfully.
The reduction of rents whether temporary or otherwise will reduce income and in consequence the ability to service debt, which in turn makes a fund raise more likely..
RR are in a unique position with the Government's Golden Share which gives PI's considerable comfort. Of course depending on individual's exposure, the RI was virtually impossibe to reject. As here many have done very well in recent days with the bounce back within Markets. As in most markets some win some lose. The maxim being the market is the transfer of money from investor to another.
The question still remains, " how will Marstons fund the Operational Excellence for the Pub and Accomodation Business"?
I have just taken part in the RR Ri and they are in a dier state compared to marstons. That will take a lot longer to recover. I believe when lockdown is lifted and hopefully not entering another one with the virus levels levelling as it stands pubs and restraunts will be filled for a while as we have had such a miserable year and a lot of people will still not want to travel abroad hence money spent in UK with people enjoying themselves.
@fairdealer
Understand the debt issue but it is serviceable especially with the 240m just recieved. Along with increased online sales im sure they can westher the storm. Agreed may be more likely if this was going to go on for another year but in reality it won't. If a RI was on the cards there is no way they would have let the landlords of all establishments off 10percent of their ground rent either.
Trent
Realise my views on a RI are not popular. Just analyse where we were and where we are.
The historic debt pile has reduced through the JV, we still have debts around £1.1Billion. We are yet to know the true impact of Covid on profits. I suspect even though sales since the end of the first lockdown have bounced back, we do not know how profit margins have come out.We were hearing a lot about the growth in supermarket sales, but as most suppliers will testify margins are wafer thin...good for consumers but not producers.
As yet there has been little or no hard figures for the lockdown, it is reasonable to assume they are dire. Now we are into another lockdown, hopefully not as severe as the first, but still impacting on profits.
The company have ambitous plans to focus on operationally making the retained estate places of excellence. This will require funds. Where are those funds to come from, further borrowing or direct funding?
The Company accept there is uncertainty for the forseeable future, so unlikely funding will be available from current profit generation.
How will the programme of estate improvement be funded???
In response to Hads comments, suggest the financial history is reviewed. The company had debts of £1.3billion at the end of the last financial year. Endeavours were made to make in-roads. Pitcher and Piano deal failed but a sale to Admiral completed at a considerable discount to book value. Carlsberg come along and forge a deal, a dam good deal for them, CMBC is created as a separate Company which Marstons have a 40% share. Carlsberg would have been aware of Marstons financial position which no doubt enabled a good deal for them. The Brewery assets have been transferred to CMBC and there fore any belief Carlsberg would have been concerned about Marston's can be dismissed.
As a point of interest Molson Coors have just sold one of the oldest Brewery's in Burton for in excess of £100m. The site is to be redeveloped. It is highly likely with the amalgamation of Carlsberg and Marston's Breweries closure of one or more will happen within 3 years.
For a start carlsberg wouldnt have entertained the merge if they felt Marstons would be in anyway in financial trouble with worst case factors allowed for. With the news of the all but confirmed vaccine and multiple others within earshot this is no way the worst case scenario. More likely to be seeing 75 plus after lockdown, pubs re opening.. the good old brits getting very festive ploughing through lots of Hobgoblin with view to a very positive 3/4 of next year.
@Fairdealer
Hi mate. No, I don't see us being in a position to do buybacks for the foreseeable to be fair.
Equally, I'm starting to think that a RI seems unlikely as well atm to be fair. I don't see the need for it because a) they've just completed the Carlsberg deal, so they have money to pay down debt, also, b) they've said that they also have cash on the hip to keep things ticking over for now. There is no immediate requirement for additional fund raising. The banks are not breathing down their neck for payments. Just my opinion of course.
there won't be a right issue! Absolute crud people see on this chat.
Trustnet is by far the quickest of them all, I use them as they seem to be 3-4mins ahead of LSE. Also Trustnet is more than just RNS it also shows the very latest from GlobalNews wire. When Pfizer released the news it took a few minutes to hit the BBC SKY RT etc however at 1145hrs when it was released I was reading the announcement.
link for those who would like to use it than rely on slower platforms.
https://www2.trustnet.com/Investments/TNUK/LatestAnnouncements.aspx?limit=-1&pno=2264