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Very positive article in the above this week regarding Barryroe.... check the posts on the PVR site regarding the article ... sorry cant post..
Could not read full article myself, as I'm not a subscriber.
https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/providence-shareholders-prepare-for-bond-boost/
BW
Part III
OTHER PLAYERS
SpotOn does have interests in providing well design and drilling project management, reservoir and field management services, as well as having an interest in the Odfjell Drilling company and Awilco Drilling, which owns some semisubmersible rigs. These are all minority investments. SpotOn also notes an association with the Norwegian engineering firm, Aker Solutions, which specialises in low-carbon emission designs, but again works with a lot of other players. The agreement Linn drew up with SpotOn in April last year offered it “exclusivity until October 31, 2020” to assess the potential of the Barryroe field and agree farm-out terms. The key to this, obviously, was funding, which would make it easy to find a service company and drillers to do the job. By the end of October, however, SpotOn had failed to deliver so Linn allowed a further one-month extension but even by then thegoods had not been delivered. Despite this, Linn went ahead and agreed a 50% farm-out deal with SpotOn, which presumably provided evidence that it was close to securing funding. This reduces Providence’s stake in the field from 80% to 40%. What is understood is that Pareto Securities, a Norwegian investment bank, has agreed to lead but not underwrite the raising of a $50m 10-year bond to partfund the project. On foot of this, the big French bank, Société Générale, is considering a $35m 10-year loan and the Norwegian government will provide a $45m export credit guarantee on the basis of using Norwegian drilling and service companies.
DEFERRED FEES
On top of this, SpotOn says that its consortium partners will defer part of their fees to the tune of $35m. This appears to bring the total inferred funding to the $165m that SpotOn signed up to. What investors need to ensure is that the key initial $50m bond is in place at the end of next month. With oil prices recovering to $60 a barrel, prompted by the rollout of vaccines worldwide and the predicted economic recovery expected to follow, the odds of this bond being put in place have decreased. What is exciting about this is that according to SpotOn’s feasibility study, the estimated breakeven point for Barryroe is $25 a barrel. This means that with 350 million barrels recoverable, the profit on the field could be of the order of $12bn, leaving the value of Providence’s potential profit share here at close to $5bn. Providence shares are currently trading at 7c, which is 99% off the €7 they traded at back in 2012 when the exploration company had just completed its last successful drilling. The current price values Providence at €50m, which is about 1% of its potential profit share from a successful development on Barryroe. This makes Providence shares look like the most underrated share on the market and they are likely to fly on the back of any confirmation that the $50m bond is actually in place.
Part II
Providence has one significant asset – its now 40% stake in the Barryroe oilfield, which has 350 million barrels recoverable and has flowed on oil on test the five times that it was drilled, most recently in 2012. While Linn is right to focus on Barryroe, it is hard to justify the dumping of all Providence’s deep water Atlantic margin licences simply in order to save money. Linn has no experience or background in the Irish offshore resource sector and as a chemical engineer does not have the academic training to fully understand the rather complex Barryroe field. This helps explain the decision to farm out the development of this field to a third party with more knowledge and experience. It was, of course, Plunkett who was in situ as chairman when Providence raised €70m in a share placing back in June 2016 at a price of 16c and then signed off on the disastrous farm-out agreement with the Chinese Apec consortium. A more obvious choice for Plunkett to have picked as CEO is Steve Boldy, the current CEO of Lansdowne Oil & Gas, Providence’s 10% minority partner in the Barryroe consortium. Boldy worked as a petroleum geologist in the Department of Energy and then spent 19 years with Amerada Hess (now Hess Corporation) as its UK and international explorations manager. In 2013 Boldy joined Ramco, which developed the Seven Heads gas field off Co Cork, just above Barryroe, before moving to Lansdowne in 2006 where, for the last 14 years, he has been studying the Barryroe oilfield. Presumably he could have been poached from Lansdowne, where he is on a salary of only €70,000. SpotOn’s own website asks if you are “looking to sell or farmout your off-shore oil and gas field for development?”. The Norwegian entity claims to have “a new approach to cost-effective offshore oil and gas field development”, whatever that means. CONSORTIUM SpotOn boasts of working with “a consortium of world leading service providers”. One of them we now know to be Schlumberger, an American oil service company that works with an array of operators so the tie-in is far from interesting. SpotOn also claims to be working with the Norwegian oil services investment company, Akastor.
A Huge thank you to JODO on the other board for posting this message:
Part I
Providence shareholders prepare for bond boost
IT WAS reported in the Business Post recently that Providence Resources’ farm-out partner, SpotOn Energy, had approached the Irish exploration company about a potential merger. This was not too surprising as Providence’s chairman, Pat Plunkett, and CEO Alan Linn had previously outsourced the job of finding farm-in partners to SpotOn rather than doing it themselves. The good news for investors is that the expected €50m bond placement at the end of next month could set a fire under the shares. This would not be surprising given that the company is currently valued at about 1% of its potential €5bn share of the profit from any successful development of the Barryroe oilfield.
SpotOn injected £0.5m into Providence last year courtesy of two placings and, in response to press speculation about a merger, Linn issued something of a nondenial denial earlier this month: “We are not currently involved in any merger discussions with any party.” He went on to add, however, that “we will continue to work closely with SpotOn Energy to deliver the necessary funding to develop the world-class Barryroe asset”. Linn did not say Providence has not been approached by SpotOn, simply that he is not involved in any merger discussions. Reading between the lines, if SpotOn can deliver the “necessary funding” for the agreed early development programme (EDP), then it might see little purpose in having Providence just sitting there as a sleeping partner. Rather, it would make sense to merge with Providence and run the whole show. At that stage, Linn would have no obvious central role to play despite being on a generous salary. Linn finds himself tied into SpotOn, much like Tony O’Reilly Jnr and John O’Sullivan were to Apec three years ago, which was supposed to come up with $200m funding for a five-well drilling programme, instead failing to pay even the initial $5m. Plunkett eventually pulled the plug. Why Plunkett chose Alan Linn as the new CEO remains something of a mystery. He is a chemical engineer by training, rather than a geologist or geophysicist. While he did work for major operators like Exxon, Lasmo and Cairn, it was not at a really senior level. In 2008, Linn joined Roc Oil as COO and rose to CEO in 2010 but in 2014 Roc Oil lost €31m and was subsequently suspended from the Australian Stock Exchange.
Linn then opted to jump ship and became CEO of the distressed African oil and gas company, Afren, which went into administration in July 2015 and was delisted from the London Stock Exchange. In 2017, Linn moved to Third Energy as COO but “following a strategic review of the business, the decision was made to divest the offshore business and focus on the onshore”. Linn ended up as CEO of the offshore business in July 2019 but exited six months later to join Providence in January 2020.
What is understood: interpret or view (something) in a particular way.
Is considering: to think over carefully : ponder, reflect
Will provide: make available for use; supply
Will defer: put off (an action or event) to a later time; postpone
What is understood is that Pareto Securities, a Norwegian investment bank, has agreed to lead but not underwrite the raising of a $50m 10-year bond to partfund the project. On foot of this, the big French bank, Société Générale, is considering a $35m 10-year loan and the Norwegian government will provide a $45m export credit guarantee on the basis of using Norwegian drilling and service companies.
DEFERRED FEES
On top of this, SpotOn says that its consortium partners will defer part of their fees to the tune of $35m. This appears to bring the total inferred funding to the $165m that SpotOn signed up to.
Thanks for posting, Battle,....also thanks to JODO, for posting on the PVR board,....still holding our full buy back (I bought back both LOGP & PVR on 8th December 2020) shareholding in LOGP,.....I have reduced (in s/p@6p to 7p range) our PVR shareholding by 70%, since buying back into PVR in December,....having now had full sight of that article , I will stick with our existing LOGP shareholding (at least, until the end of March 2021),....I have been considering, taking our PVR shareholding back up,....but having cut the risk right back, across the two (PVR & LOGP) shareholdings, with the 70% profitable sale (reduction) of our PVR shareholding,....the question for myself, is, do I want to be greedy, or leave well alone, having reduced the risk across the two, & await the outcome in a comfortable position.
BW
You are welcome Wraith. It is a binary outcome depending on the bond been secured or not, making it a share for people who can afford to lose money or who enjoy gambling. I suppose that is true for all shares really. We will know in a couple of weeks, hopefully sooner. Spoton have gone down the road a long way to securing the bond, signing up big names along the way to bring Barryroe to development. Things in our favor: Strong demand for oil and gas in this decade. An Irish economy that needs jobs, revenue and security of supply for oil and gas. The big thing against us the climate change movement but Alan Linn has provided all the answers in regards to this issue.: Carbon Capture, lower emissions by removing the up to 30 percent emissions associated with transporting fossil fuels half way around the world. ( Fracked gas from America a better option than gas from Barryroe?) Security of supply as stipulated by the EU. Having said all that Wraith, we just have to wait and see what way things go.
Agree Battle,....for myself it's about building shareholding positions, with little or no seed capital left at risk (I'm not always successful, with this strategy though),....had plenty of time on my hands, during these lock-downs,....built positions in oil/gas & gold sectors, just started to build an ASX traded (rare metals) section in portfolio.
BW
When my family, or anyone ask me for advice on shares, I point out "Fear" is the pivot point, & they should never put themselves in a fearful position,....only investing what they don't need.
Tune: https://youtu.be/qMYxkh224Tg
BW
I was accused previously of trying to get 'suckers' to invest in a company.
It was by TriggerSaysDave, about JOG.
Like TheShen, he predicted that it would go bust.
He was banned by administrators which is what likely will happen to TheShen in time.
JOG is now valued at nearly four times its value at that time.
You have to ask yourself what kind of person would claim that I am nursing massive losses without his having any knowledge of the prices at which I had invested in this company.
I admit that I am making a loss.
I was on the verge of buying some more for 0.3 p.
It's a pity that I didn't, because I would now be in healthy profit overall.
As it is, overall my investment is showing a loss of 12.5 percent.
Anyone can deduce from the fact that the price was 2.75p only 3 months ago that I have in recent months been in profit more than in loss for some time.
Even if I were the unscrupulous and devilish character that TheShen makes me out to be, it's amazing that anyone would suggest that I would go to such lengths in order to erase a 12.5 percent loss.
The question I'm asking myself is: where does this Shen come from?
He arrived on LSE 7 weeks ago and has posted comments only on companies with an interest in Barryroe.
Is it really believable that he has no former incarnation on the LSE forum?
Is it really believable that he started predicting that companies would go bust and making his accusations against long term investors just 7 weeks ago?
Hello LONGWAIT,I do not post on this board but I do read it and the ADVFN boards.I find the suppositions and the sytax submitted by your said critic very similar to a poster with the name of Bones698 from the LOGP discussion board on the ADVFN site.Coincidentally Bones698 last posted on 21/12/20 just before TheShen started to post on LSE.I have read his posts but I do not know his cicumstances.In my judgement ,you are very fair and reasonable poster LONGWAIT.
Thanks Zephra and well spotted!
Yes - you are right: TheShen (LSE) = bones698 (advfn)
'sad really' isn't it?
'sad really' is just one of the giveaways of his writing style.
So what can we say about him now that we know his identity?
Well, over on advfn he has been saying that he enjoys seeing people lose money by investing in LOGP, which entirely substantiates the allegations I made that he enjoys upsetting people and that what he is doing is akin to various anti-social activities.
He also denied that he had lost money by investing in LOGP: he said he had never invested in it but that he had shorted it a couple of times.
It's nice to have a self-confessed LOGP shorter on this forum!
I agree with you that the general writing style of these two posters is very similar, but there is another fact that suggests strongly that the two of them are one and the same:
Twelve minutes after you had unmasked him, he posted a comment in the same thread without acknowledging his unmasking and without denying that he is indeed bones698.
Here's one other thought: over on advfn on the LOGP pages, he boasted that he had been proven right about JOG and that he had posted comments to that effect somewhere.
Now is that not curious?
In my last post, I started off by talking about TriggersaysDave and his prediction that JOG would go bust.
JOG shares are 227.5p.
I would be interested to know where bones698/TheShen posted his comments about JOG.