The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
UK economy has been Sh !t on top inflation has been high sort them 2 out bring interest rates down a smidge = less defaults on loans more money in everyone's pockets economy picks up simples
Lloys goes on a tear
I think at a total 3.21p in 2018 (the last normal pre-Covid year) the dividend was too high if they wanted to run a buyback programme (which clearly they do as that is the preference of the institutions). It was too high because of one-offs that they did not anticipate. In fact in 2019 they terminated early their £1.75bn buyback programme not using £600m of it. This was because of unanticipated PPI charges. Since then they have had:
- a pension deficit that increased at the 2019 triennial review to £7.6bn from £7.3bn
- an unexpected £500m termination charge to get out of the Standard Life contract to go with Schroders
- an unexpected £1bn on HBOS Reading
They have preferred to keep the buyback at circa £2bn (same really as with AHO’s approach) but rebase the dividend. I think this is because they want to be rock sure they can maintain it and keep it going up at a pleasing yet maintainable trajectory.
The good news is that most of the one-offs are behind Lloyds. The major uncertainties are the cars, the £1bn tax case and the Visa/Mastercard indemnity (£400m?).
If 2024 broadly follows 2023 then I would have thought they will have £4.5- 5.5bn surplus capital (pre one-offs). Say £5bn. That would be enough to raise the dividend by 10% (cost of dividends - £2bn) do a £2bn buyback and leave £1bn for other. That could potentially go, if needed, to a £1.5bn provision on the cars (net of tax it is a bit over £1bn) or £1bn as a special dividend (1.5p).
I don’t think they will raise the interim dividend by much more than 10% as they will not know the FCA review by then.
Mark my words Charlie boy. I've been here when we're were on near 0 interest rates and that wasn't any good for the SP. In fact we were all saying can't wait for interest rates to rise because that's how banks make profit etc and it will be good for the SP. Turns out neither high or low interest rates was any good for the LLOY SP.
Will there be roughly 500,000,000 a year added to the total every year to those 5-10 years? Or has that stopped now? If not it seems they've set us a never ending task on the buybacks.
Sometimes we have to sell. I've got a monthly lloyds credit card bill to pay off. But as long as I dont drop below 100k holding, its all good in my head.
Walkersworld
"looking at 2018/2019 the dividend is not higher"
Charlie said last week he expects rates to start dropping in Q2, this is when we'll see the share price increase along with an increase dividend payment, 2019 interim was 1.12p 2024 interim 1.00p
We had several posters on here last week selling out.
Hopefully there are plenty more Lloyds retail investors willing to give up their shares to help keep a lid on the share price to help out MS with low priced purchases.
Suf
Hopefully in early 2024 no bumps in the road like we had last year in March , over the next few months could see us hitting the swinging 60s again IMHO
We are already staring at 1 big bump the car cr@p do you mean hopefully there are no more bumps.
& surely we need to finish buy backs before a push up in sp.
Back in 2015 we was hitting the 90s mark and was only days away from hitting the pound and we had well over 70 Billion shares in issue back then and hadno dividends to moan about
We starting to hit a sweet pot here IMHO
Hopefully the short term investors are all but sold now and we can live in love and harmony on here when we hit the swinging 60s again
Watch this space
NC
''that is why the buybacks is preferred by those who 'call' the shots not those who take the 'hit' from those well targeted missiles, and the navie who still 'trust' CEO to do the 'right thing' Good luck with that.''
It is SHAREHOLDERS that call the shots when it comes to permission for conducting share buybacks.
Let's also remember Lloyds added 517,208,357 shares in Jan-24 for the usual annual employee reward schemes. Since the last buy back finished in aug-23 the voting rights were 63,540,750,749 as of end Jan-24 it was 64,086,434,019. So lloyds added 545,683,270 shares since the last buyback finished. So quite a few buying days to wipe that out.
I've been tracking since the end of 2018. "The highest ever share count" was 29th Feb 2019 at 71,349,949,398 that buy back finished 30th Sept 2019 with a share count of 70,026,650,473 then covid hit. By 22nd Feb 2022 shares when went back up to 71,047,437,994 shares.
It's good we're at 64bn shares. But we need another 5-10 years of buy backs. Will be great to break the 60's barrier and get into 59bn.
Rick
Chid
Respect.
For sure that some might see the FCA as little more than the Govts attack hound. As with the PPI the saying Caveat Emptor is thrown under the bus for the sake of boosting the economy with the new monies in people pockets with a little bonus for the HMRC coffers in the form of the punitive fines..
Off to work now is on late duties today.
That's all you here about, cost of living this, and cost of living that. Here's saint Martin Lewis to tell you how to save coupons for 5p off your next box of Weetabix. Wage pressures causing inflation blame yourselves people for being greedy. What they don't say is. TV licence going up, Council Tax going up, Road Tax going up, passport, hospital parking, and very many government subsidiary stealth taxes going up. Who are the actual greedy b4st4rds in all this? Who's to blame for all this? Who's not going to be held to account for all this? The same goes with the world is burning narrative. You people are all to blame. It has nothing to do with the 1000s of nuclear tests we've conducted in the past, nothing to do with the private yachts and airplanes. It's you leaving your TV on standby or washing at 40 degrees instead of using yesterday's toilet water.. I am so sick of this hypocrisy, when for the love of god are we going to find the strength of the farmers and kick up the s4it storm that's needed in this country. Guillotine at the ready. Rant over just had a guts full of this crap. It's slowly brewing and coming soon I can feel it.
Hopefully it's third time lucky with 14 Billion unloved Black Beauty shares gobbled up
Will this time we see Lloyds Banking Group share price bounce back to the 70 pennies
Hopefully in early 2024 no bumps in the road like we had last year in March , over the next few months could see us hitting the swinging 60s again IMHO
Problem is, the FCA are more of a Judge in a court of law, than the Police whose presence may prevent crime or prevent crime continuing and growing. But it seems to be a 'Kangaroo Court', and nothing kicks like a Kanga
With HMG's blessing what could 'possibly' go wrong for innocent shareholders?
Wake up England, see what is going on.
Same with stopping imm's, IF such were a direct 'problem' to HMG means would have been 'discovered' to prevent such.
But as the elite own land, property and many have family making a fortune from such and being immigration lawyers etc, then living miles away in expensive areas, and having the Party 'funded' by business which desires cheap ('for them' but not for us who then are subsidising their rent, c.tax, education and health care for LIFE, for their 'cheap employees') labour, what WE want is not what we get unless it coincides what the elite wish to occur, on very rare occasions, if it becomes a 'threat' to the elites way of life. As happened with Covid, the invisible threat threated the elite, so lock downs occurred, YET if it had only effected the plebs' and their 'money' as with the ills of immigration, could 'buy' the elites safety and not had affected their way of life, you can bet that the whole would have been very different.
Thing is eventually unchecked immigration will effect all in a negative way, but all too late to do anything then.
Must say it is refreshing to see people wake up the the risks, albeit decades too late. So I guess the naivety and brainwashing of the media, slows the thinking process of many until the unpleasant side is staring them in the face.
Cathesoames, Crowcast, jayfax, must be distraught to see more of the British wake up albeit to no avail now.
This is the last call of the month .
The News is out Lloyds Banking Group are Cheap as Chips 46p for a share in the whole group Not just Lloyds Bank ,yes Fill Da Boots IMHO DYOR
2020 pre covid 64p per share 18p lower than today :)
2022 pre invasion of Ukraine 54p 8p lower than today :)
IMHO Lloyds banking group is in a better position than 2020 with the stabilized higher interest rates :)
The results have shown this .
The FCA Probe is a Joke FCA is a sleep at the wheel and needs closing down
The car seller lowers the car prices and hikes the interest payment and Car Buyer Sleep walk into paying the higher rates instead of shopping around , this is Lloyds fault !!!
Shareholders please fire in letters of Complaint to FCA and to Charlie Boy
Its a Joke to warrant FCA Jobs position.
Back to Lloyds Steady Dividend and Buybacks ,Just Fill Da Boots and Sit Back and enjoy the ride
Love & Light
Chips
64p end of year
"At least one subsea fiber cable damaged in the Red Sea, some reports blame Houthi rebels"...
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/at-least-one-subsea-fiber-cable-damaged-in-the-red-sea-some-reports-blame-houthi-rebels/
Djibouti Data Center also confirming disruption.
We live our lives depending on these things and uninterrupted trade.. Big risks here.
Back to the pen and paper soon?
Yes Hardup we live in a new world now
As I said future dividends that I believe is growing 15% each year since COVID
Over 46p please sell holders and take your 10% gain's
Food prices rising at slowest rate for two years amid easing energy and fertiliser costs and fierce retail competition
We now need the UK economy to improve the US to talk about dropping interest rates at there next meeting then followed by UK & Lloyds could start a slow climb to 50p
Could is the elephant in the room
Could Would Should Maybe Here's Hoping
I presume you’re not invested in Lloyds then Chid ?
Can someone tell the BB about the percentage divided increase from the final 2019 and the 2020 interim to the corresponding final 2023 and the interim 2023?
Ahh, Indeed, excuse the fat fingers !!
I think you mean cynical. Yes you are.
Thank you for those rare words of sanity on here.
It was clear seeing the chap from FCA on the Martin Lewis prog. that the banks were going to pay for this, the only question to me, was, 'how much'.
I have had years of reading of what naive, dim, hopeful, or more likely those who can't ever bring themselves to admit that their 'judgement' could possibly be flawed, so instead of considering what is most likely to occur, instead think only of what they, themselves 'wish' will happen.
The two are often poles apart.
I think the cost to Lloyds will likely be at least double the higher est of 2b. For as we see in your case and more telling with PPI, the compensation culture is just a form of 'Helicopter' dropping money from those 'rare' firms making profits, to give to the feckless, to keep the fragile economy from getting any worse, and for once, without HMG having to fund such moves, which would add to debt or increased taxes on a 'watchful public and media' especially when an elections looms.
I see that housebuilders etc took a hit yesterday on another 'trumped up' scandal, over being shared info on pricing etc.
So it is OBVIOUS to me, that HMG are doing as many of the public have done for years, insomuch as they 'look' if not scour the country for any fault, and then use lawyers to capitalise on the gain to be made from such.
With the great unwashed, just adds to the cost of our Council tax if claiming for a broken paving slab fall etc, but with HMG they can ONLY take from those rare businesses who are making money but have to do so with stealth, so as not to 'kill' the Golden Goose egg layer, so find or create new 'misdemeanours' as the 'old one' PPI, ends.
How long this will go on for is 'how long is a piece of string'? For once a source of easy money is found, as with the great unwashed, aided and abetted by lawyers, it becomes never ending and growing larger each passing year.
No wonder the UK has become less attractive to investors, for if a Tory Gov can use such scams what hope when Labour pull the strings.
Hence I say all those fools hailing 'buybacks' as the answer to our prayers, imo are deluded, for whilst as the 35 uptick post says, the div saved is good on 'paper' there is NO certainty, that that greater sum will be distributed amongst shareholders, and imo, more likely HMG, and Lloyds board will have a 'better' use for such. Yet a larger div, would be under are 'control', HENCE that is why the buybacks is preferred by those who 'call' the shots not those who take the 'hit' from those well targeted missiles, and the navie who still 'trust' CEO to do the 'right thing' Good luck with that.
The Share price is increasing..
It must be Dividend Re-investment time very soon..
It'll go back down after I'm sure.. Doe's this regularly to make us all pay more for our Divi re-investment.
Or am I just sinical ?