Member Info for RickEngland

Smiles.... haha. Yep I thought about space x but couldn't be bothered with the paperwork to trade usa shares with my broker. I've got a trading 212 account, I can use without the paperwork, more of playful account, I rarely use it. I tend to avoid usa shares, they trade in dollars, we generally trade in pence (more shares for your money), plus their p/e ratios are off the charts. Spacex was a good one though with just 4% of shares floating. I think Tesla was near 400x p/e last time I looked. 400 years of future earnings.... absolutely f***ing mental.

I'm replying on the "gambling" comment. I know it's a comment in jest, but the reality is you looked at the share offer and realised it was likely to climb short term, with such demand on low initial share issue. Therefore it wasn't really gambling it was a well thought out trade, with the high probability of upside. Anyway many people say share trading is gambling when in fact our horse runs everyday. Unless your horse falls over dead.

One of my favorite investing stories is Al Calpone, when he was shown around the New York stock exchange in the 1920's. He said something on the lines of; if i knew about this stuff years ago, i could've make millions here, and it's all legal. Haha.

Yeah agreed, already missed the bounce on easyjet, plus there's always a risk if the deal falls over.

Share investing is about personal risk tolerance and strategy. For those that avoid risk maybe buy an ETF tracker like ishares IUKD which pays dividends 4x a year.

I don't like holding shares in companies that are at top, as one bit of bad news and you're down. Funny enough I view them as more of a risk than big companies with some short term trouble. If i want low risk, I might was well throw £200 a month into a fund and leave it 10 years (like a pension under management).

Your first question should be, "what is my strategy" and risk tolerance to allow me to sleep well a night. Then stick to that strategy and hunt for firms that fit that profile.... or hold cash and wait. My strategy is; only buy firms in say fste 250, with some short term pain and hammered sp. (bigger firms that can weather the storm, with a very good chance of recovery). There's aways a few a year. Then trim some or sell all, when your well up. Even better if they pay dividends that derisks your money for you. Some buy the same shares with any divs.... i don't. A dividend for me is purely a derisking mechanism, and averages down my buy price.

Crest N mentioned below is an interesting one. Their results are next week on the 16th July. It's likey the sp will crash and take vty and other builders temporarily with it. What if the sp drops to 40p? First it's below my risk profile (too small), would i be tempted at 40p? I'd battle first with myself that im buying outside my comfortable zone, but maybe 2000 shares is a small punt.... dunno.

I'm not gonna suggest shares for you fella. Strategy comes first. Good luck.

That's what chairman are for, to have a nice lunch at the savoy and suggest the funding needs a little nudge, for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Banburyboy. I read Crossley post. It won't be a £200m year end profit though. It will be a £200m 'adjusted' profit, with probably some juicy exceptional costs stripped out. Which obviously includes H1 with all those exceptional costs stripped out as well. So it's not hard to hit £200m adjusted. I'm sure there was a note in the trading update saying vty haven't decided what costs will be classified as exceptional. 🤣

I'm not looking at the numbers again. Although I'm pretty sure we had like £3bn net assets. Therefore assuming the exceptionals are in the millions, then it shouldn't erode the balance sheet too much.

The key for me is the massive wip is coverted to cash, and debt significantly reduced. Then we move forward next year much stronger. Although im taking any profit forecasts with a pinch of salt, even if H2 is stronger.

Adam seems to want to kitchen sink it.

Banburyboy. I read Crossley post. It won't be a £200m year end profit though. It will be a £200m 'adjusted' profit, with probably some juicy exceptional costs stripped out. Which obviously includes H1 with all those exceptional costs stripped out as well. So it's not hard to hit £200m adjusted. I'm sure there was a note in the trading update saying vty haven't decided what costs will be classified as exceptional. 🤣

I'm not looking at the numbers again. Although I'm pretty sure we had like £3bn net assets. Therefore assuming the exceptionals are in the millions, then it shouldn't erode the balance sheet too much.

The key for me is the massive wip is coverted to cash, and debt significantly reduced. Then we move forward next year much stronger. Although im taking any profit forecasts with a pinch of salt, even if H2 is stronger.

Adam seems to want to kitchen sink it.

A few weeks ago, I believed a bounce to over 300p was doable, maybe even 350p. We're in the same week as the trading update, so we need time for news to flush out.

Sure it's good wip is down, debt is down, cash is up. Repositioning the narrative to a "year of transition" under new leadership, doesn't hide the reality we're incurring a H1 loss (at least we won't pay any corp tax i guess 🤣). It's good we have the asset strength to weather that storm.

However we still need to prove we can sells homes, whilst repairing the business. All quite achievable, but not yet proven. There're lots of incoming certainties which should help sentiment. New vty FD, Burnham appointed PM (just in the post, regardless of political opinion). Homes England new contract is the big one for us. Looks like the Iran issues will drag on for months, while USA politicians are allegedly trading oil positions for gains (so i count that as a... just carry-on problem). Decent weather for building.

It's kinda pointless regurgitating the same trading numbers, to try and justify the sp. We all know it should be higher based on net assets. The reality is, it's a waiting game now, for Adam to rebuild solid foundations.

I'd rather be in, than sitting on the fence. Because the sp can fly on any positive news, especially the new gov contract. (5 new posts to read, while typing this).

Because at £14, we dont know it's going to £105 and the attack could be over instantly. The gamerstoppers they colluded with each other to hold firm, i doubt we'd have that luxury. 🤣🤣 Anyway £14 would be sweet. Funny stuff.

Hey Svend.

Lets say that happened and we went full on gamestop. The price goes £5, £10, £14, £20..£35...£63...£96...£105. When are you selling?

I'd have to start trimming at £14. 🤣🤣🤣

On a more serious note, I can't see it happening, but we can dream. Plus I believe the gamestop coordinated attack against the shorts, meant the PI's kept buying as the price hit ridiculous levels. I don't think I've got the balls for that. I'm brave, but have my limits haha. It's all good fun.🤣

Murray. Yeah i've mentioned in a few posts, that ceo review is a grey cloud. It's like kicking the can down to the next results, to throw out a bit more pain. Makes sense though... better cash, lower debt, less wip... and btw now that's sorted we're wiping out the southern division and that will cost £x (speculation) We should be in a decent position when that comes out though and the market might take it positively assuming Adam hits the targets.

Murray. Yeah i've mentioned in a few posts, that ceo review is a grey cloud. It's like kicking the can down to the next results, to throw out a bit more pain. Makes sense though... better cash, lower debt, less wip... and btw now that's sorted we're wiping out the southern division and that will cost £x (speculation) We should be in a decent position when that comes out though and the market might take it positively assuming Adam hits the targets.

Adding to Ice: because the new ceo (Adam) is saying under my watch, we not taking risk to generate revenue without some reasonable margin. That's why I really this guy, having the balls to say we're a business not a charity. Or the most likely language was "a partnership means we all should win".

You make me laugh Svend 🤣

I honestly can't see how the shorts are managing it with just 318m shares in issue. That said all these automated trades these days, open the doors to many opportunities as a PI. The shorts are our friends until we buy. 🤣 . Now we're saying you've had your slice of the pie, ty for driving the price down. It's our turn now.

Karv1: ok lets be brutally honest. It's sh*t out there. Energy costs, food costs, car costs, even beer costs. It's no wonder the shorts are "all in" on doom. But I see it like covid version 2 without the lockdowns. Either it's the end of the world and everyone loses everything, or we battle through and make it happen.... because we have too, as life moves on.

People will buy the houses, and they will struggle. Maybe a little help from mum and dad (for many). Maybe 30 yr or 35 yr mortgages, whatever it takes to have a home of your own. I said to my wife when we moved, you know the new house means no holidays right? Guess what, we had holidays. She talks me into family cost takeaways at least twice/three times a week (with no debt). Somehow we make it happen.

That's the private sector, not the mountains of council houses the government is crying out to be built, at huge urgency. It will work even if the shorters think theres doom, because the shorters are not banking on people wanting to live and have dreams and make their lives better. That is why it will work., even if it hurts for the first ten years in a mortgage.

Just wanna say that if I was interested in vty at £4, I would've bought at that price. Expecially with Greg (ex ceo) buying nearly £900k worth at £4.07 per share.

No one would've forecasted vty would be in the £2-£3 range, it's absolutely nuts. So people waving their dicks around saying you paid more buddy, is just silly banter. There's many intelligent experienced investors on this vty page (much better than many other shares listed here). I do enjoy reading the opinions of others here. Put it this way, I don't consider myself cleverer because I got in much lower. It was a bit lucky to be honest. Could've gone to £1.85 as Barclays were forecasting.... madness right. Haha.

We should all win from here. I tell you what, assuming Adam fixes this firm I'm staying in for at least £10 a share minimum. Especially if divs flow. You're all great, i love this vty board. Thanks for all your opinions. Tomorrow lets get another 10p upside.. yay.

Omg Evraz... I almost lost £50k on that (bought at lows) Got a text from a mate saying Abramovich had just been sanctioned. Logged on and the sp had plummeted, i said to myself dump the lot now at any price, only lost about £200. Within 3 hrs, trading was suspended. I will never play those games again and was pleased I had the foresight to spot danger. Lucky lesson learned.

ContrarianQuest: would I buy £75k of shares now, after the current update?

Even more so now, than my buys some weeks ago (i started buying at £2.28) . I believe vty is massively undervalued and a wonderful value play opportunity, once Adam repairs the business. If it was a smaller builder, I'd be more skeptical. Vty are big enough with considerable net assets to reorganise. It's short term pain in my opinion. Obviously some clouds loom over the ceo review and Adams plans for that financially. Although I think the future looks bright, expecially with the incoming new gov contracts. When vty have less Wip, less debt and more cash, I believe we will see the sp fly with only 318m shares in issue.

Out and about at the moment, so hard to respond to other posts.

My view is vty have historically leveraged high levels of debt, to build huge volumes of homes, with large WIP balances and the market was completely supportive of that culture (with sp prices at £14) I believe there was a "just build it, we'll be alright mate" attitude from the top down, which probably led to the 2024 accounting issues. Even the buybacks, can we afford it? "Sure, dont worry about it". It doesn't work to blag it like that forever, when the housing market turns, and theres delays issuing the next phases of home England partnerships (which will come).

The note from Adam within the trading update; "we would welcome some demand side stimulus", was a big nod to get the funding moving, and possibly a nod to politicans to help with some sort of demand. E.g. The gov could create stamp duty help, directly targeted at new builds rather than the whole housing market. That surely can be made affordable. Even half stamp duty... something.

The irony is, we might feel like we're in a bad place, although we're actually management wise now positioned to run the firm as it should be run. It's better not worse, from a management point of view. Once that's done, the numbers will take care of themselves. It's good this has happened, not bad.

I don't like references to adjusted profit, it's fluff. Fine quote it, but provide the forecasted actual operating profit as well. However I believe the turn around will be epic and fast, the company is big enough and financially strong enough to manage these issues.

It's early days with all the noise about, give it a few weeks and opinion will soon change for the better. Im actually looking forward to Sept. Sure we have the CEO review imcoming, although i'm confident the numbers will look extremely encouraging.

Other than the FD resigning, i believe there's another reason Vty pushed forward the trading update. Crest Nicholson moved their half year results to 16th July, same day as the planned vty trading update.

Crest are forecasting £5m- £15m PBIT then say interest is £15m so that wipes out their PBIT. Obviously they're a much smaller firm. Not to be compared with vty.

Better life. If it wasnt for investing, my life would be considerably restrained. I'd just about cover the cost of living crisis, energy bills, out of control food prices... life would very hard with limited fun. So it isn't funny when people are trying to earn a extra few quid for some takeaways, the misses constant amazon deliveries and hopefully a family holiday or two from share returns.

In essence it matters to our lifes, that we can all win. All I'm saying fella is have a heart. I'm sure it's not your intention to mentally harm, yet you do come across like that. I feel for the folks that paid considerably more for this share, when it looked excellent value at 500p.

We're all in the same boat, worked hard all our lives, just trying to make it work. How about the poor folks at Vistry under tremendous pressure to deliver.

All the best Rick.

Yeah it's good strategy to look for strong firms with some short term pain. It's always hard to find the bottom, I usually find myself under water a little, until it turns. I'm happy to walk away if the guidance doesn't improve. I wont hang in there on forever promises. I'll give them a year. I've walked a few times in the past and moved on at a small loss which saved me. I avoid tiny firms, especially miners or gold rush promising tiny oil companies haha.

With vistry the opportunity out measures the risk for now. I'm not happy about the potential hits of the CEO review which was mentioned a few times without numbers. Although decent cash at year end and lower debt sounds promising and achievable.

I put too much money on this to be honest 30600 shares. Oh well lets see what happens. Can't win, if you dont play.