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PPS
A third typo noticed ~ I'm obviously not firing on all four this morning ~ near the botton it should have said 2026, not 2006...
Strictly
Robleo
One piece of good news I’ve seen on the board over the weekend, is Persimmons so called interest in Cala. To be fair I think Persimmon have no other option than to bid, what with Barratt merging/taking over Redrow, they will lose market share.
Hopefully, the expensive advisors engaged by Lgen will secure a decent return.
Something to think about.
PS
There were a couple of typos in my previous comment...
That should have said "shudder" not "shudde"
And it should have been "series of headwinds" not "serious of headwinds".
Even though they have been pretty serious...!
Strictly
“Strictly, even using your calculations it's still less than the total return from a basic international fund, most of my funds have returned around 80% in the last 5 years, i'm not suggesting anyone sells up their shares, but i would recommend to anyone to add some funds into their portfolio, as well as some good divi shares like lgen/aviva/mng/psn etc.”
...........................
Robleo,
I appreciate you’re likely making that comment in my perceived best interests and, if so, thanks for your concern.
However, I have been in this investing malarkey a long time now, and that includes having called it well wrong, & with leveraged money, in 2007/8 to the extent that I had to sell up and buy a smaller house rather than sell shares at seriously depressed prices.
In 2008, it would have been the equivalent of flogging fivers for a quid.
However, from the start of 2009 to date, it has been much different, as from that point to date I have compounded at an average annual 25% ~ which, as you might imagine if you’re familiar with how that goes, was somewhat beyond my expectations.
...! :-)
Within that, I have been prepared to be invested 100% in a single share on occasion ~ always in house builders ~ and I appreciate from previous comments that this would likely make you shudde...?
However, within the above, since the start of 2018, returns have been much thinner, and I have only compounded annually at 7.5%, and I have very recently largely sidestepped house builder shares while waiting to see how they come through a seemingly ongoing serious of headwinds.
I’m happy to use the scribblers' projections for EPS for this and they have reduced Bellway’s EPS forecast for 2024 by nearly three quarters since 11/11/21 ~ when it was 422p ~ compared to currently being 119p.
Even by 2006, the forecast BWY EPS is only currently 208p, an ROE equivalent of only 7% compared to their long term average ROE of around 16%.
This is not good, IMO.
Hence currently I'm holding mostly LGEN, PHNX & MNG as well as some BWY.
Strictly
Hi, Finley1, i'm afraid nothing is guaranteed in this world and most definitely not in the stock market, i currently have a 50/50 split between international funds and UK dividend shares, have i diversified enough to protect my investments? i really don't know only time will tell how it all works out, everyone has their own ideas, some buy and hold others sell before exdiv and take profits, but best of luck to you all whatever your strategy, we are all taking a chance hoping we can get a better return than we would get in a savings account
I think it’s more than fair to say that funds have had a good run over the last 5 years. Nvidia has contributed vastly to the global gains. When your sat at home twiddling your thumbs and if you are old enough to remember the dot com crash, it sticks in your mind that the incessant belief that AI will be a game changer, and monetised, and that at present is unknown, you have reservations, doubts. Seeing as tech has been such a large driver of these funds and gains, a rational approach is how can it continue ?!
I’ve been investing to the extent that at some stage the bubble would burst, and value would return. I sit here questioning my strategy, that’s what makes a market I guess .
Something to think about
Strictly, even using your calculations it's still less than the total return from a basic international fund, most of my funds have returned around 80% in the last 5 years, i'm not suggesting anyone sells up their shares, but i would recommend to anyone to add some funds into their portfolio, as well as some good divi shares like lgen/aviva/mng/psn etc.
just my opinion of course
Drew57 - type GB00BG0QP604 into google. That should find it.
Crossley - 39% is the total return achieved over the 5 year period with dividends reinvested
Zac, I cannot find L&G International Index Trust on here when I search under Legal. What is the ticker?
Crossley,
To ballpark it, if you assume the price hasn't moved in five years ~ which is about right ~ then reinvesting fiveyears of div at yields of 6.2%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.4% and 7.8% leaves you with a 40.6% gain.
Whereas, if you take the figures the scribblers have given and then assume 2.5% a year div growth thereafter, by my calculation, you get the next five years' yields of: 8.2%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 9.6% and 9.8%.
Which, assuming no price movement (and I'm invested here on the basis that that's maybe all they might do?) you get a start to finish gain of 54%.
Though, if they achieve those levels of div, then I'm imagining that, at some point, that bipolar nutter Mr Market might well take notice..?
Strictly
Morning all & good morning Zac
Zac, May I ask how you’ve arrived at the 39% over five years please? If you care to elaborate
Sorry 'leaning towards offer'
Eccles04.
Thanks for your post. Perfectly fair comment.
I just feel the alternative will be no better.
Also, I help out with school fees which are already eyewatering and subsidise the education budget.
Have a good long week-end all.
I can be as critical as anyone regarding LGEN performance. However, as a longterm investment it tends to deliver a positive total return ie +13% over the last year and +39% over 5 years. CSN has delivered a negative total return over the same periods of -5% and -2%. Too many people are seduced by the promise of a high dividend yield in isolation of total return.
My best returns come from funds. The L&G International Index Trust has delivered +21% and +80% over the same periods. A simple global equity tracker fund. Well diversified, less risk, better results.
Hi tolorisk, A few years ago I would have agreed with you but more recently the Conservatives have lost the plot starting with choosing a variety act as their leader in 2019. Since then things have gone from bad to worse millions having been thrown away on a health scare which made not the slightest difference and which we are all now paying through the nose for.
Csn is better for dividend than lgen both are pretty much safe.
If you buy your shares in an isa account tax on divided is not an issue as there is no limit
If Labour win, they need to keep a tight rein on spending, otherwise they could spook the financial markets can cause a run on the gilt prices which would impact L & G
After my "mistake" I am biding my time to buy into L&G. Circa 4.8% interest without concerns is quite attractive but I miss the excitement of a substantial equity exposure. I still hold equities but nothing to write home about.
It rather seems that Labour will gain office and with a substantial majority. What this means for L&G I will leave to more learned posters than myself. For what it is worth, despite what they say, there may be a wealth tax the way. Look at their proposals for VAT on school fees. The conservatives have let down hardworking and aspirational people, including myself and, probably you also. However, they will get my vote just to try and keep Labour out.
If, by whatever means, you make money, Labour will come after it and re-distribute. Be careful, if you can.
Your pension fund might be safe, the funds are held in trust. That is where I am building funds. Open season when you start to take benefits or exceed a likely new lifetime limit.
Not totally relevant to L&G so thanks for persevering.
As a newbie here looking to invest I would just like to say that it's refreshing to read polite, informative posts so thank you. My take on the election impact is that uncertainty is certainly the key & as soon as there is some, i.e. regular polls showing a massive Labour lead (probably) this will do the market some good. Until then uncertainty & fluctuating share prices.
Zac, i'm not condemning anyone for it, just saying the big earners will probably vote for the party they think will tax them the least, whether that's the best thing for the country is another argument, personally i have worked hard and paid taxes all my life, not everyone's the same, not everyone wants to work
Correction, cgt is levied at 10% it's dividends that are subject to 8.75% tax above tax threshold for a basic rate tax payer