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This from IC mag in January: (this was not including TMG group)
The bottom line is that although LDG’s pro-forma NAV per share of 19.36p is 8 per cent below the 21p level recorded when I included the shares in my 2023 Bargain Shares Portfolio, its share price has fallen 18 per cent per cent to 12.13p even though LDG retains net cash of around £43.1mn (8.1p). It means that the four shareholdings, which have a combined value of £59.2mn (11.1p), are in the price for £21mn (4p), or almost two-thirds below their carrying valuations.
Good spot re Esken's holding Dartron. I originally misread your message and thought you were saying LDG owned some Esken (which would be v bad) and not vice versa! 11% of such an illiquid company will be difficult to shift so could be an overhang on the stock for a while unless they work out a deal...
Hi all, been looking at this (have a slither), mainly because I'm bullish APH and this seems a decent (if overcomplicated) way to play a recover in APH stock. But they don't make it easy to work out a mark to market NAV. And I'm disappointed that the buy back seemingly has been halted (despite getting authorisation at AGM) well short of their 20% target - think they bought back 37m shares total vs a target of more than 110m...
From what I can work out from the AR they had at end November 2023:
1. 55m shares in APH worth about £22m then (39p), and about £19m at todays SP (34p)
2. 11.1% of SQLI held indirectly via DBay vehicles worth (I think) about £18m, if you value vs current mcap of €195m I believe. But DBay effectively acquired SQLI at €31 a share back in 2021 (vs current SP of €42 a share), so maybe this should be valued more conservatively eg £14m, although we are 2.5 years down the line from the transaction now...
3. 10.6m shares The Mission Group worth about £2m then, and about £2.5m now
4. They had £2.8m worth of Trifast, which they subsequently sold for £3.1m
5. A private holding in the recently acquired (by DBay) Finsbury Foods. They held 12.4% at point of completion and deal was worth £143m, so reasonable to say this is worth £18m. But they say they now own 27.5% although I wonder if some of this is debt funded - the structure and value is unclear.
Putting the above together, I get to about £63m at end Nov, versus their accounts which state investments (all held via Fixtaia subsidiary, which is annoyingly Jersey listed and so opaque) are valued at £55m. So a £7m delta I can't quite square... Add net cash of £42.5m to this and NAV is around £92.5m.
Marked to market today, I get to £67.5m for the assets above excl Trifast (diposed), incl. £10m loan they've written to Nash Squared. If I keep the same delta above, this becomes £60.5m. Add my estimate of cash today (after Trifast proceeds £3.1m, spend on buyback since Nov of £1.1m, less £10m loan to Nash Square, less £1m estimate of opex) of £33.5m. So total NAV of £94m.
Versus current mcap of £51.5m. Ie a discount of about 45%! What am I missing?!
Effectively this is 3 equity investments (APH, Finsbury Food, SQLI) which all seem decent businesses, although I don't know SQLI well it doesn't seem to be valued stupidly on the books. The latter two of these are private businesses, both of which seem to have been bought at reasonable valuations (eg two investors in Finsbury publicly said the price was too low at the time of the deal). Plus a £10m loan at 15% pa to Nash Square (which companies house suggests is profitable and solvent). Plus £33m cash...
I had forgot / didnt know that we had a bit of TMG.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TMG/notification-of-major-holdings/16199909
It has received an offer, looks like LDG doubled their money. (going by share price on 13th Nov). Brave bison is another good stock to own, and has large owners already - lord Ashcroft.
unsolicited conditional proposal regarding a possible offer by Brave Bison for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of MISSION. Such offer comprised an all-share offer at an exchange ratio of 11.5 Brave Bison shares for each ordinary share in MISSION (the "Possible Offer"). Based on the terms of the Possible Offer and the closing market prices of MISSION and Brave Bison shares on 29 April 2024, being the last trading day prior to receipt of the Possible Offer, the Possible Offer valued each MISSION share at approximately 29 pence
you are right pat. im on a paper loss for sure. it sounded great in the investors chronicle just before the buy backs! i dont know if you read the other board, but mentioned over there, i think the current issue is that esken (former stobart) went in to administration, they own a chunk of these shares. so ldg has cancelled the buy back, hoping that the administrators are forced to sell the shares back to ldg really cheap. this would be good for the nav discount here, and im sure simon thompson could tell us again how the discount is going to narrow, whether it then would or not i dont know. i guess there is nothing stopping esken just using a broker and doing a book build to sell the shares? either way, these shares could be very cheap soon, i think that explains the selling. then of co****, largest holding alliance pharma, complete s**t show. my only comment there is that blackrock had 1% short, it looked like they really hurried to cover it, driving the price up about 30% in a few days. did they have competition for the shares from dbay? or why are dbay not buying? doesnt say much about the aph holding.
i took 10000 on friday just to lower my average a little, in the hope that one of the events mentioned above does give me an exit. because if you compare this with a small cap investment trust, that pays a dividend and is better regulated, and is rising share price (most are), then this is a terrible investment. what ever st says.
in february he said this:
estimated net cash backs up 67 per cent of share price
holdings worth £59mn in the price for £21mn
37 per cent share price discount to spot nav
.... but it isn't pretty.
I seem to recall a long time ago (in a galaxy far far away?) that DBay were going to turn this into the proverbial golden goose?
It may have made DBay plenty of money but nothing yet for most shareholders; I got out with a reasonable profit 2 years ago but guessing plenty didn't, still waiting for the share buybacks to give them 'fair value to exit' but now nursing big paper losses?
Note to LDG - the buyback isn't working, not achieving it's intended outcome of raising the SP. Why continue with it?
It's a strange one for sure.
Here we come!!
I think a huge rise in s.p coming. Starting today .
Just as a very rough calculation, we had (from memory) around £130m in cash. Ldg has bought shares in various companies , but still retained a large cash holding. All the investments are fine apart from the APH investment. This has fallen and its this decline solely responsible for the £12m loss this year.
So my very rough calc is £130m minus £12m loss = £118m. Divided by shares in issue 525m and you get around 22p per share.
Interesting.... they said in 2023 they could buyback up to 20% of the shares in issue but so far, after 12 months, have only bought back about 6.6%....
Still watching....
No rise, glad i'm out.
Expecting a share price rise over the next few weeks.
No way the company is getting Shareholders to vote for a share buy back and then only buy back a fraction of the planned shares.
Obviously the company had an obligation to shareholders wanting to stay invested to buy shares back as cheaply as possible. However it also has an obligation to shareholders wanting to exit and also get the SP nearer the NAV. These were the reasons the company stated when requesting the permission for the shareback , so I think buyback volume must increase next few weeks.
Despite the drop in APH share price the NAV must still be round 19p ish. So there is no reason whatsoever for the company not to buyback the full amount .
All my personal views
Finally out of this dog s*** of a share, with a smidgen of profit.
When is the deadline ?
I reckon buy back volume will increase significantly over the next few months. Especially up to deadline date.
Buyback volume seems to be decreasing quite a bit now.... anything to read into that and what might happen when that comes to an end ?
Long wait I reckon.
Not selling until 24p
They can still get to whatever figure they want to by being more aggressive. Low hanging fruit gone so may have to be offering more now hence pushing the price up. They need to get to 16/17p for mine and am hopefuly they will.
Good work.
Maybe this is finally having the desired effect on the SP, looks to have been rising slow & steady for the last month from a low of 11.30 up to 13.8 today, and some sizeable trades happening.
Still watching....
Just checking on the buy back..
Started 4th April, plan to purchase up to 20% of stock.
Currently has purchased and cancelled 5.39% (30,295,958 shares).
The Share Buyback will end no later than on the conclusion of the annual general meeting of the Company in 2024 - which is in May. So likely they will make it to 10% in that time. They can always continue it next year I suppose.
Interesting, but transport sector chart has no relevance here as LDG no longer involved in transport.
Good to see the SP rising though for anyone invested here.
Still watching....
Two month sideways accumulation, congestion, broken for third consecutive day, which is bullish. However the transport sector chart shown no success in trying to break up overhead resistance. Similar situation with the top risers today. LDG, has reached the vicinity of a medium down trend line, today, so treat with caution, when the sector chart is still below overhead resistance. The sp, may react back to former resistance, now support at 12, an opportunity to buy.
Yes I have a big clue. If everything else you hold is in the toilet ( as it is for most investors, myself included) then whatever LDG or it's advisors buys/holds is likely to suffer the same fate IMO or at least the market is agreeing with me up until now.
Why would LDG and or it's portfolio advisors have any magical skills above and beyond ourselves of achieving anything in the stock market?
If the NAV is higher than the market cap (I've not even bothered to check), then the market is simply stating what it thinks will happen to NAV over the longer term. Or am I missing something? Am I clearly wrong? Cheers NR.
Not a clue sorry
Just popped in for a look.... jeez.....
Despite this being 'absolutely controlled by DBay' I see they are still continuing with the share buyback, day in, day out, which was meant to increase the SP/reduce the discount to NAV, but it hasn't.
Does anyone have any idea what is happening here?
Still watching.... but still unable to invest even if I wanted to as everything else I hold is in the toilet right now!!