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It's 'only' £20k. A £2m buy would have been better news
Interesting trade late in the day 3,076,923 shares at 0.65 (I assume a buy).
Interesting, thanks LTB
Mkt cap 22mln, cash now around 3-3.5mln (?), we probably owe to the Chinese 4mln minus the amount supposed to have been paid after 25 oct. (1st of 3 tranches -- 1mln?); assuming we have to pay the balance (3mln?) in 2 tranches (when EPC is signed - January end) and then 1 year after, one could say (IMO) that, even if the Co has to raise another 4-5 mln to kickstart the mine construction (just guessing), this fund raising will be done only after the EPC will have been signed and hence the SP will be higher (2x-3x?); thus, this future dilution would not be so significant.
In any case, the Chinese should confirm by Xmas that their job in-situ is done; 2-3 weeks left.
Looks like a bottom has been found for now.
Nice technical bounce from mid .3s
Thanks LTB.
And don't forget - soon probably - a possible dilution from further fund raising; Co mentioned giving investors on all 3 Exchanges, the ability to participate.
First, let's get the EPC in late Jan (latest, as per RNS), the financing by early March (as per RNSs), and the mine digging started (H1 24); then we worry about jackpots et al. When (if?) production starts in 5 years or so, the SP will depend on what potash prices will be then, who wants to buy it (how far to ship) and the profit from selling it.
Over the (very) long term, maybe anything is possible....
Let's hope so! But where's the jackpot?
Thanks for some great posts here.
Great that LTB is still with us since his input is so measured - and hopefully prophetic. Let's see...
Mitch,
Looks like the Board is taking a more hands on approach, and trying to push things forward; the Chairman has a lot of his own money at stake so at least he's aligned with the PIs. Brad had not invested 1 penny in the stock of KP, so inertia might have been better for his pocket. Not long to wait for developments (good or bad, we will see).
Excellent post LTbeliever, which I fully agree with.
And it is good to read too someone else saying - as I have always felt - that Brad was sacked! Should have happened months before it eventually did.
@Howardzz, 31 Oct RNS (Brad's sacking):
"The Company does not intend to appoint a new CEO until after the receipt of the financing proposal for the construction of the Kola Potash Project. The Chairman will assume the role of CEO in the interim. The process to reach agreement on Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract terms, and to receive a financing proposal for the full construction cost of the Kola Potash Project, is now near completion and is expected to be finalised during the first quarter of 2024 with construction contractors scheduled to be mobilised during the first half of 2024."
By 7 December we have more news coming. The Chairman recently sunk more hard cash, via Trusts, into the fund raising. My take? whatever happens, it will happen in the next 2 months; IMO, good things and even if another fund raise is required for the mine to take off, the SP will be higher in a year's time.
The SP shot up last year, after the invasion in Feb 22, as the price of potash tripled; over the following months, the SP tracked the potash price deflating down (plus, the ups and downs with the delays in the EPC, cash running out etc); just because a lot of bad news dragged the SP down, doesn't mean that it will not recover;
I was writing here in the past, mostly to dispel - based only on logic and public info - ALB's deramping eg that the Minister would revoke the license, that the Chinese will pull out, that cash will run out and massive dilution and bankruptcy would ensue.
Guess what? KP2 is still here and IMO, there is light at the end of a very long tunnel; I repeat, all will be revealed in the next 2-5 weeks (further dilution the main short term risk IMO) but the trend is positive. In the long run, Africa will need to eat and the West will move away from Russian/Belarusian potash. All IMO.
Good luck and here's to a great 2024!
Not sure what difference LTbeliever's thoughts make! He's been wrong as often as ALB1 has been right! In short, nothing voiced here makes the slightest difference to the eventual outcome. I've lost faith in any jackpot here - simply emerging with a profit is all I'm hoping for. Lesson learned. Just think of all those other AIM companies I won't be investing in! Seriously, investor fatigue could have a lot to do with all these 52 week lows.
This SP is a real lottery. But maybe the old dog will bark. I wonder what LTBeliever thinks right now. I hope he will come back to this site....
With buys to sells apparently 100-1 I'm surprised the SP's not up a bit more.
As long as the buyout is minimum of 1.5p I'll be happy just to get my money back. No way we are building anything. Can't keep delaying EPC just wondering how long it will happen after EPC is rejected. Unless BOD accept regardless of terms which is maybe why Brad went?
Fair dos - ALB1 has been more often right than wrong, not that that says much! Let's hope we all emerge with a profit after ZIOC is shaping up to be a huge disappointment. A bit like Labour under Starmer.
News is leaking....
Looking positive for some major announcement over the next couple of months or so....
No comeback......LMFAO
So why did you buy in last Xmas, against your advice, on the basis of your own "inside info" that never materialised?
And the many times you wrote that "this is a 10 bagger"?
I attempted to provide LT advice last year when this was trading at 1.2p, I advised selling and buying back triple the amount.of shares. He should have listened . I explained this was going to fall to around 0.35/0.4p. I wanted 0.25p however that will not arrive I admit. I now hold and will wait.
LTB - Thanks for this. Let's see. And hope
Thanks Howardzz.
I v been following the events, my only worry now is how much the Co will have to raise as a prerequisite for the EPC, when (before or after EPC is sealed) and at what SP (thus, determining any further dilution). Most of the scaremongering of ALB - as expected -has not come to fruition (delisting, bankruptcy, license revocation etc) but we will need funds to develop the mine. But, we are nearly there and Africa will be a huge market for our potash.