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And finally, FWIW, Technicals seem to point towards a Golden Cross occuring sometime in January, around the time when the EPC is due to be signed; purely coincidental, of course, but it would support the SP further.
The previous opt. study earmarked 40 months to mine completion, so it's quite reasonable to have this reduced to 3 years or less, given the 6-8 months spent by the Chinese on pre-engineering work; LT USD bond rates are coming down (back to what they where 1 year ago) and the Chinese economy will not be recovering soon; all these imply reduced cost pressures for the construction phase, plus a higher NPV (discounted at eg 4% Vs 5% just a few weeks ago);
And, just another wild guess, DX project will be more attractive/marketable (and valuable) once interested investors see that Kola (and associated infrastructure, which will be synergistic to DX) is finally on the way.
Of course, things can still go wrong but as the Co have already dealt with many problems over the past 2 years, I am optimistic that there is more upside than downside risk.
Time will tell - soon IMO.
FWIW - I remain positive on KP2. Two possibilities in my view. KP2 get the price guarantee based upon (a much improved) version of the existing design. KP2 the price guarantee based upon a new design that gives savings in operating costs and time scale by using the latest technology for Potash mining.
BW for 2024 - 99
That's also quite possible; in any case, we will IMO have material news within the next 2-3 weeks (good I hope), so this matter will be just old history.
GLA, best wishes for 2024!
I am not sure that the additional work, required by PowerChina was the result of "bad communication/coordination". My interpretation of this was they were unimpressed by the original Engineering Design work (done by a French group) which SEPCO were following in their quotation.
I'd have thought it was due to 1 whole year being lost because of bad communication/coordination with the Chinese ie re the Performance Guarantees that seemed to fall through the cracks! And the 5mln cost to the Co.
Indeed. I wasn't sure how to interpret Brads departure. He may have been put on 12 months notice after the fall out with the Minister of Mines.
Well, he got rid of Brad to save some cash until the Mine is set to go; if that's in mid-24, that's a cash saving of 500-600k? not much in the grand scheme of things but still shows a desire to save on "non-necessaries".
Its always a good sign when board members buy a few shares. David Hawthorn's shareholding goes way beyond that. So its a very positive sign that he sees a high probability of a good outcome here.
Thanks for clarifying, 99.
These are David Hawthorns shares. He previously held 175,333,061 shares and added 162,375,000 in the October Fund raise, so now has 337,708,061.
Yes, very interesting development and hopefully a very promising one
Was "not" on the investors' list.
Stonehage Fleming Investment Management Limited was on on the investors' list last year; interesting that within a few months their stake has risen from zero to over 8%.
Good omen?
Mitch,
If I am right, then the SP will start moving just before any RNS is issued; because if this project is done on time, and favourably to KP2 (i.e. leading to the EPC), then we will not have to wait until the end Jan (EPC signing) for the SP to start moving. IMO
LT. I hope you are correct.
Its just that I have never known a Chinese company produce a substantial report like this on schedule. We still have another ten days, so fingers crossed.
Mitch,
No, that was additional info; IMO
SEPCO to finish by Dec end, EPC contract to be signed by end Jan, then financing within 6 weeks (i.e. early March); so, all these fall in Q1 24; contractors to be mobilised H1 24 i.e. within 3 months as of financing - plus, new CEO.
Don't forget that SEPCO started in April, then took on more staff in August to expedite things, hence by December end everything should conclude.
LT -I think the timetable has slipped to 1st quarter 2024. This was in the RNS that announced Brad's much anticipated departure:-
The process to reach agreement on Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract terms, and to receive a financing proposal for the full construction cost of the Kola Potash Project, is now near completion and is expected to be finalised during the first quarter of 2024 with construction contractors scheduled to be mobilised during the first half of 2024.
LT - I thyink the tietable has slipped to the first
Or maybe an RNS may not be issued, or an RNS issued, stating about "delays"...who knows??
Bottom line is, if we get an RNS before New Year, saying that everyone is happy with SEPCO's work, then it will be great news.
Before the Y/E and seeing if the deadline as per the 12 Oct. RNS will be kept i.e.
"SEPCO has committed to a work schedule that provides for:
- Completion of all of the engineering design works before the end of December 2023".
Of course, the RNS might be released in early Jan., if indeed SEPCO completes by the due date.
A Merry Xmas to all!
0.80 p ?
No idea but SP rise more probable than SP drop; already up 50% since the Placing; still a few unknowns but if favourable to the Co, then the SP should definitely rise. For example, we need to see if more funds will be raised, when (before or after EPC's conclusion) and for how much; will the SP be much higher then, thus making dilution much smaller? Will the EPC be released, with no hiccups, on time (by end of Jan)? What will the EPC new cost numbers be? Lower or higher than the previous one?
All in all, if things go well, the SP should rise substantially - IF!
What are folks thoughts on where the sp could go here short term ?
I guess the SP action is not due to the CFO's change.