Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Celle it is slightly more complicated than you make out.
The actual mining licence will be held by a subsidiary of KMUK, which we are still waiting to be created. The government of Mali has a right to 10% of profit generated from Bougouni for nil cost and a right to purchase an additional 10%. I'm not sure at this stage how the profit calculation will exactly work or if the Mali government will have it's stake in KMUK or the subsidiary, although I suspect it will be the latter.
Either way, KOD won't get 49% of the profit from Bougouni, it will be reduced by the Mali government stake. The mechanism for Kod to receive cash profit , if it follows standard corporate practice ,will be via a dividend paid by KMUK I think
Historical exploration by Rockridge Capital Corp(RRC) for their Fatou Gold project (is not the same area than what Kodal has now in 2 licenses for their Fatou Gold project (Fininko – Foutière)=> 310Km²
info from technical report RRC 2014:
Between 2010 and 2013:
12,000 soil samples
1,278 Pit Sampling
986 Auger Holes/samples
1,254 Mobile Metal Ion Survey samples
Aerial VTEM : 2,880 line km ( combined EM, magnetics, and radiometrics)
Ground IP: 13.15 line km gradient array and 5.075 km pole-dipole
Regolith mapping: Eastern half of the concession
Artisanal workings map: Locations and relative quality of ~1,500 pits mapped
Geologic mapping: Various interpretations from drill data
RC drilling: 27,466 meter for 256 holes
DD drilling: 29,148 meter for 144 holes
All this exploration was spreaded over Fatou, Fatou main gold, Fininko, Digan S, Digan N (Both Digan areas or not included in current Kodals licenses)
The data from this exploration is used by the authors of the Techncal report for a resource estimate to achieve an “Inferred estimation”: results of 85 holes => 55 DD and 30 RC
https://kodalminerals.com/project/gold-projects/fatou-gold-project/
DYOR
GLA
German keyboard - keine Ahnung!
What's wrong with your apostrophes
It´s worth what it´s worth. In the past, it was worth what it used to be worth. At some point in the future it will be worth what it´s going to be worth. Speculation is futile. What´s the point, anyway? And fundamentals... ? Don´t talk to me about fundamentals! Pfff!
Massive spread.... no day traders messing with that id think
Are we still getting a update in april ? Or was the march one the one we was supposed to get in april??
It's worth what investors believe its value is in time. Its worth what it's worth. Good fundamentals can only be viewed as encouraging.
Some fairly decent logic put forward re valuation. One issue though that seems to have been overlooked is that the suggested valuations only take into account the current project. As the company moves forward with production, it will become cash generative - I doubt that the BOD will simply sit back and be satisfied with just this one mine. Most mining companies when cash generative, will be looking for ways to spin up the cash being generated. IMHO, this will lead to further opportunities/sites being sought. If that becomes the case, then the value can only increase. As a LTH, I'm not too fussed what the value will be in a few months time - for me, even with this single mine and the gold opportunities, this is a stand out investment on AIM. add in the aforementioned potential and this could well go on to being an outstanding opportunity. In any event, even if we just stick with the current project, the SP will increase several fold from its current price.
Naylor you are correct it does include a discount. But that discount is to apply future profits today as far as I am aware not a pricing mechanism to directly calculate a buyout/purchase value.
Buyouts use an NPV but as far as I am aware there is no direct project value in an NPV, I would be happy to be wrong.
I disagree re. NPV needing a discount. An NPV is by definition a discounted valuation at a certain hurdle rate. If a potential buyer has a lower hurdle rate, the NPV to them is in fact higher. This is specifically why in corporates strategics are typically able to pay more than sponsors given lower return requirements.
Creeping up
Everyone is talking about different values as they are making different assumptions, so no reason to disagree.
Mine is purely DMS over 4 years as per Kodal figures, others are going through flotation, increased resource etc.
Daz, to clarify there would only be an increase in value by the depreciated plant value if just sat, each piece in isolation on the premises, but joined together and operational would be a massive increase in net asset value.
It is cash until invested in the mine and nobody buys cash.
NPV is everything included all profit, so nobody will pay that value. So if you put in loads of hypothetical outcomes and came to an NPV of whatever billion, 49% of 90% of that value is ours, then the buyer would pay a fraction of that NPV price. I would imagine that during full production and everything selling, the fraction would be higher than the percentage Hainan paid of our initial NPV as there is less risk when everything is running and selling.
Therefore our net asset value should be high at this point.
What a gift these shares are still under 0.5p to buy. Spodumene still creeping up.
Fully Funded for plant to be built by November
There is more drile holes appearing all over it. From satellite images from 05/04/24
Thanks everyone for your comments.
It appears that everyone agrees that my calculations of £249,380,000 pa profit & 6.25pps are correct & my conservative assumptions are not unreasonable as they have not been challenged.
Only Elco pointed out the 49/51 ownership split of the subsidiary KMUKwhich is a private unquoted co. I have little/no knowledge of how the profit from KMUK is accounted for by Kodal but as Elco intimates it seems logical that Kodal would only get 49% of the £249,380,000 pa profit 49% = £122,196,200 , EPS = 0 .611p & p/e 5 = 3.05p ps
If someone knows on how profits from subsidiary companies are allocated/distributed I would be interested to know.
I intend to hold at least until the flotation plant is in full production as I think with the calcs & conservative assumptions made that a SP of 3p + per share is more than achieveable within 3/4 years provided we are still owners.
Long & strong wins the day of course 😊
My conservative estimate is 1p by year end and 2.5p thereafter being a buyout or ramp up to full production….. not including our Gold prospects of course 😊
Wouldn’t you need to take 49 per cent of that Celle unless I’ve mis read the calcs?
Celle
I don't agree with that higher cap. Happy to be wrong.
From the lack of response to my previous post I can only assume that either I need to go back to school or people are stunned.
I have made various asumptions -price of spod,exchange rate , p/e which I feel are conservative, but CoP & Production seem firm so a Market Cap of £1.25bn (ie a share price of 6.25pps) @ full production seems feasible ?
When it comes to buying out KMUK it's less about the what mining equipment is there and more about the MT and LOM.
If BA is aiming for 50MT next that significant increases value therefor the buy out price. Hainan could take it all then opt to wack up a number of builds all over the plot.
I believe that a price of 1.50p is reasonable, which has been my estimate for the past two years, without accounting for the 40% increase in reserves. Therefore, a price of 2.10 is not excessive considering our current situation, and this is without taking into account the value of gold.
With a mining rig due on site that is a standard module. Mining now the service construction road is in place. With the in depth drilling and fully funded with a JV from a thirsty lithium 100% take off agreement. Judging on EV adoption and China being the market leader. It looks like Kodal could become a valuable investment.
I know I like big numbers so lets take a look. possibly unrealistic but who knows as the figures appear to stack up. So unless we are taken out b4 I have taken a punt at dreaming of what Kodal maybe worth after stage 2 flotation.
370000 tpa @ £1190 per ton ($1500 @ xrate 1.26)
Inclusive COP -£516 per ton ($650)
Profit £674 per ton ($850)
370000 x £674= £249,380,000 Profit pa.
£249,380,000 : 20Bn shares = 1.2469p ps
Undemanding p/e of 5 = 6.2345p ps
This would mean that Kodal would have a Market Cap of £1,246,900,000.
Either my figures a wrong or very wrong or I will have to go and lay myself down for a considerable period of time !!!