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Escape velocity trajectory continuing so far, Scarfell. Can but hope.
@notsofastyou. This has been a nightmare ride for the vast. I believe that there has been a lot of insider trading happening on every spike. I believe that the sp has been manufactured at certain times. I still don’t have any faith in this but I’m down too much to bail on the very mere chance that it rerates. In other words, I may as well loose the lot. Good luck whichever way you choose to go.
Last Updated: 26/10/2023
Kromek - LGB Co
https://www.lgbco.com/quoted-landing-page/the-future-of-healthcare/kromek/
re states Philips CZT contract and est value and when likely revenue from deal will feed thro'
I sold mine at the worst possible time imaginable 3 days before Simon bloody thomsons article. Ah well that’s the way it goes sometimes I know some of you have had a tough ride so I hope you have better luck than me with this one and it continues to rise. I’m out I’m way too frustrated with this company to make non emotional decisions now.
Was pleased they said that the recent orders help underpin the current years revenue growth plans, all seems financially on track. The current game changer IHMO is the medical imaging progress that the market doesn’t seem to have recognised. Another contract in that space would be a massive boost and I suspect numerous deals are under discussion with KMK being the only independent supplier of CZT globally and the urgency to shift to CZT next generation detectors. The pathogen detection commercialisation has been slower than hoped but some very positive signs - if KMK also penetrated here I expect we would be a £billion company but the sooner they partner up in this sector the better I feel. Nice to see improved analysis and sentiment since I last looked at this board. IMHO DYOR
All companies have a risk.When a company hits profitable trading and starts to gain traction with orders then the risks attached to the share become much less....Risks are receding and because the market can see risks receding the s.p. is moving forward.....This is a lowly rated share with sentiment now changing....
Recent Bio detection news -
What's interesting to me is although it went very quite after the DARPA development contract ended it was almost immediately picked up by a UK security body MoD? with a follow on development and initial units supply and service contract.
This multi year contract is well underway and It appears that sufficient progress has been made to interest the US dept of homeland security to place a first contract with Kmk and although we weren't told much the term "Agnostic" was prominent, so along with the dozen or so know possible Bio weapon pathogens they want Unknown ones detectable as a primary function which is telling as it appears they believe Kromek can achieve this..all a world first, all of this tech.
I've just checked over the last few days and not seen any recent Bio detection development news from any other detection/security/defence companies anywhere, so Kromek are well placed I think and the news today of more financial help in development from a large un- named defence global is very interesting..maybe Kmk's future partner...have to wait and see...the prize is a national US Bio platform role out, and others to follow.
Even astra zeneca, microsoft, google have macro level and company specific risks. To say a company such as KMK, with its history, has addressed all risks is simply ridiculous.
Better to say the balance of risk / opportunity has changed - time to mitigate the former even further and execute on the latter.
We reached the critical point of profitable trading ,and now all the risks have been addressed the future is bright...Very bright....
Mike,
The RNSs last week and this morning very welcome, but considering the potential of the RNS last week thought the market response "muted".
Still believe the market is looking for the company to show it is run in an operationally efficient manner in the short / medium term in results from existing contracts - an extrapolating this efficiency in high margins, tight fixed cost and working capital management onto a future portfolio of growing and widening income streams.
Short term executional excellence will drive the share price.
We have been here several times before but perhaps this time we may reach escape velocity.
Kromek wins three new CBRN contracts, one with large new customer.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1031469/kromek-wins-three-new-cbrn-contracts-one-with-large-new-customer-1031469.html
View from Vox
A major contract win for Durham-based Kromek as the US and other governments increase their focus on biological threats, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. The £5.9m 4-year programme aims to provide increased capability to detect and identify biological threats in response to the operational needs of the DHS.
Kromek will pilot an agent-agnostic bio-detection system capable of providing species-level identification of biological agents. To date c. £15m has been invested in the programme, including c. £11.5m of non-dilutive grants from the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Innovate UK, and the UK Ministry of Defence.
The contract gives Kromek good revenue visibility over the next 4 years, with US$874k to be awarded during the 1st year to October 2024. It also provides further substantial endorsement of Kromek's IP, building on its existing expertise in the field of bio-detection solutions.
Investors welcomed the news, driving
KMK
shares 15% higher on Thursday. Broker Cavendish maintained its target price of 25p (21-31p range) in which the biological threat detection programme is valued at £30-50m or 5-8p per fully diluted share, compared to Kromek's current share price of 4.9p, which gives it a market cap of £28m. Cavendish does not believe Kromek's biological threat detection programme is yet reflected in its valuation.
Kromek Group Plc
KMK.L
Kromek Group Plc
GBX
Pedro,
Cant take any of the credit for Shorns prompt removal, but i did report him to Lse and mentioned that it was tradey in a new guise and could they do a check lol - departed very shortly afterwards lol. So clearly he's trying to circumvent his permament ban, will continue to keep the eyes open for him, he's so easy to spot with his righteous tone.
Well done on removing todays reincarnation of his, he's not one for giving up an argument but he's truly had his wings clipped and needs ro stay as bad history.
Heard it all before.
3 days of rises....Only the start....Seriously undervalued.....Long way to go....
@malcylon. Correct, this is typical of kmk marketing. They simply have no idea. They should be featured in the Financial Times and peak time news forecast. But never have been.
The rerate continues......Very....Very......Undervalued play.....that has recently turned a corner.....No longer a cash drain....soon to be a cash machine.....this is the inflexion point.....Upwards from here....I think....
They win such an important contract and then give the media scoop to the North East Times. No disrespect to the North East, but this is another example of how poor the commercial strategy is.
Not sure when this was updated -
https://www.kromek.com/bio-detector-information/
For what it's worth : I don't like to take sides on companies. I think it's inherently dangerous to become emotionally attached to stocks in some way that loses your objective analysis. That said I have learned from this forum - in some ways the hard way - by having attention focused on the weaknesses of management. I don't think many CEOs set out to lie to their shareholders. But some are naive or their skill set lies elsewhere.
In the case of KMKs current CEO and KMKs overall approach, the fear I have built up is that they are potentially too much a collection of geeks interested in inventing things, and not commercial enough to sell the things they've invented at scale. That's one simplistic view. There are others.
Above said, winning contracts from a US government agency isn't easy. So I remain open-minded. There is a chance that the solutions they've designed are slightly ahead of their time, and that as we head more into a world of geopolitical instability, which seems clear for the next decade at least, that sales of these solutions will gain traction. Then my fears become: will foreign agencies seek to replicate what they've built? Maybe too hard. Or worse, do some of these solutions just not have a big enough addressable market to make the ROI of inventing them worthwhile? I'm not deep enough into it to know the answers.
But I am far enough into being a shareholder of KMK over many years that it's not worth giving up the intimate sense of the share price that I have built up over time. This is worth something, especially if it's a company that has some potential even in the hands of weaker management. In my view you don't buy stocks like this and sit on the holding, otherwise your average cost price will always be too high. I started out at 12p or so but when I realised the price was in a constant drift, I implemented a much more involved trading strategy. I wait for deep levels of weakness and buy in, then sell on days of strength like today. It's the only way to bring your average cost down to an acceptable level. Some don't have time for that which is understandable. Some understandably prefer to move on to a company with better management. There is also a flight to quality going on which has more to go in my humble opinion. Financing is more expensive and the availability of credit is getting tighter, so you've got to manage your risk much tighter now. Good luck everyone :-)
"The contract has been awarded under a four-year programme, which commences immediately, and the Group expects to receive $874k during the first year base period." £874k only first year and how much of that is actually profit?
Ironknut. You are definitely not wrong.
As long term holders have experienced Basu’s bullsh17 and his lies plus the BOD’S lack of respect for shareholders. we have seen many Simon Thompson’s analysis giving small spikes only to be followed by long trending declines.
There are many new bloggers here in the last couple of days who have just bought in and not experienced the above which long term holders have. I genuinely wish them all the best especially as I’m still in here drowning. I need to see 17p to breakeven so I’m hoping this can be the best turnaround ever. However I’m not holding my breath as I’ve got none left to hold!
Stu.
These r&d type deals are based on direct cost plus a fixed % of overhead cost to cover corporate costs such as buildings - the % need a to be approved and probably on an open book basis, so low margins and no immediate exploitation of IP. But ensures high utilisation.
Big difference between before and now....It is called profit....No need for Investors to cough up.....no need for people to sell....The future looks nailed on....Realistically over a 3-4 year period 20p could be achieved....but at this s.p. and given the orders will start to flow in ,this has lost its risk rating,in my opinion....