focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Quester put a 'sell' on Just. Why?
Definitely hugely undervalued given they are generating revenue and comfortable with their financials. Fair value to me would be 90p which is not far once Brexit deal is agreed, which too is not far IMO.
Who knows....but it continued today.
My best guess is that a brexit deal is positive as the outlook for UK corporate debt and the housing market is better than ina no deal situation.
Debt backing the annuities business and the no negative guarantee capital requirements on lifetime mortgages are two top financial risks for Just. Personally, I think they have given a lot of data on credit and have low LTVs and have a modest risk exposure. If they had more capital but a lower ROC stake they would look safer and be more highly valued.
As they generate capital this should improve, in my view undervalued.
What was the late rally all about? Brexit has made most UK stocks to go down, this one is holding well probably because Brexit might make retirees spend more money in the UK than buying a property in Spain I suppose.
Gains this week......in danger of a full blown rerating....
If the momentum continues into a trend it is
Time to add....
I have added again today. Looking for a short term boost from a trade deal and lowEr default rate on the credit book as the end of the pandemic comes into view.
The Ibstock 340m and Baker Hughes 100m deals are signs that Just can compete with Rothesay and LGEN for moderate sized deals. This is a huge market of 2trn there is plenty of business to be done.
Looking for a rerating soon following a couple f years when the management has met its capital targets and turned it around. This will always trade at a discount to NAV, but the discount should not be 75%. A more reasonable 30-40% discount means a share price of 120-140p. That is what I am hoping for in 2-3 years time.
Looking at the volume over the last 3 days, yesterday was the highest volume for the last 5 years, I smell some interest here. M&A activity maybe or some ii buying?
A potential turning point.
Where does any one expect this to peak at in the short term. Thanks
I have added about 10% to my holding so a modest overage down....let’s see how they go.
Should be safely in the FT350 now.
Good they have done a couple of bulk annuity deals this HY.
Not sure we will get a trading update soon unless they are well ahead of expectations.
Prospect of rising interest rates (or atleast not lower rates) probably behind this rise....and of course the vaccines which may limit bond defaults.....
Still highly undervalued here......With large unrealised lossses it looks tempting to average down.
I think it will take a while for the sp to react to improving market conditions...news catalysts around trading updates and capital days may create spikes of activity but being at the bottom end of the FTSE 350 is quite a precarious position for Fund Managers to place large bets.
M&A is possible, but you would have to question why it has not happened already....however a PE outfit could take it private and then sell it to trade in a few years.....not sure trade will want the scrutiny of a takeover at present which could lead to questions about their ability to take on Just for a cash payout.
Sitting tight....for the moment.
Looking at the fundamentals of NAV (4 x SP) and Mcap in relation to Net Profits, this looks materially undervalued but it is hard to see a major re-rate unless institutional investors take more of an interest. Many PIs are unlikely to have this topping their lists. The largest shareholder has 6.3% and I might have expected more serious investors if the fundamentals are as compelling as they look. Shares Magazine included JUST in five shares to buy on 27 August when SP was 49.6p so the drop is significant given the satisfactory six months results. Having only a small holding, I will leave it but adding will need a spark to see when medium / longer term value will be achieved. Hard to see if this is a takeover target in present climate.
We should get trading update for third quarter towards end of November
The sp look very stagnant at the moment very indecisive whether it will fall further towards 40p or march upwards towards 50p I think trading update would help, its been trading in range for a while so sooner or later will gave to break either way, volumes are low too
Just doing enough to stay in the 250/350.
Say book value is 200p, currently trading at 25%
Your major resistance level of 72p is still only 36%.
However can’t see this price to book level recovering until Covid 19 is declared beaten by many vaccines and it is clear where the losses lie.
Just has published a lot of credit data and is also exposed to the very long term value of UK housing. Neither appears to pose a problem at the moment.....but there appears to be a lack of appetite from investors.
Interestingly Rothesay shareholders recentLy went from three to two at a decent valuation......I wonder if that was applied here what the implied value would be?
https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/JUST-GROUP-PLC-14889245/financials/
Interesting book value estimate £2.40 per share
FIL a appears to be Fidelity International Limited.....so more likely an investment position rather than the beginnings of a strategic investor.
With NAV above 200p, you would think there is value here...Recent SH may be happy with 80p. LTHs would like a lot more.
An early bidder may get a bargain, leave it too long and recovery From Covid might have set in
Could this be a takeover target, my average here is 49.14p I am very hopeful that this will be 72p major resistance level early 2021 that's my target
The mysterious FIL from Bermuda (an insurance hub) has appeared with a 5% holding. Would not be surprised to see this holding grow and after appointing directors lead on to a bid - or maybe they just see value and will be gone in a year or less.
The 250m bond is more important, it is a higher capital tier than the 75m of bonds redeemed which may be the main reason for the issue. The coupon is a stiff 7% so it is hard to see how Just will make money on the investment of this cash.
Firmer foundations are worth having. Would be nice to see a run up above 50p in the next few weeks but brexit and Covid look like dragging the market lower
50k purchase, usually Directors can recognise value.
Never owned these before, Buy Order in at 40.....
Well they are lengthening the duration of their funding by moving 75m from 2025 to 2031.
The redeemed bonds must trading below or close to the 92.5% value there should be a gain arising from this discount but I would assume this will be given back in the new terms. There may also be some capital benefit of the new bonds are higher quality capital.
Of more significance to me is the reduction in SLA ownership.....this represents a change in strategy for their funds rather than a corporate strategic stake....but explains the recent downward pressure on the share price. Holding on for the upturn.....when it comes but not committing more funds.
Im trying to work that out as well...any help appreciated.....