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I don't believe there is any legal obligation to sell, jpm said no new business in Russia but I take that with a pinch in a few years time like always this will be long forgotten. I think your right there's an assumption the moex will come down to close the gap.
ive heard at last agm it was decided to continue as a going concern. even if the shares are sold and assuming they are sold in an orderly fasion over months at a reasonable price, there would be rubles worth around 450p plus the non russian assets valued at 40p, the rubles would be owned by the fund, so the fund would retain that value, holders of jrs would effectively own this value regardless of where they are held and in which bank i would think. The rubles could then be used to buy up shares in kazak or other nearby companies listed on russian exchanges in rubles i would imagine. The present 150p price seems to be suggesting a large probability of moex share price drop before they could be sold, i dont think this is likely as pes are so low, i would expect the shares to be largely kept in the fund, though I dont know if the fund has to sell these due to sanctions.
Are you copy and pasting this crap onto every board? The clue is in the name it's a Russia ETF. Having during war time committed to continuing the fund a minimum of five years more they aren't about to sell our assets, leave them in a russian bank account, call the cash nil value and tell us the non russian nav of 42p is taken as a one off expense. I get you are looking to further a position but this is naughty.
Must be a very high risk here that this will be wound up. Why would JP Morgan, a US bank, want to be associated with this Russian investment vehicle when every other company like BP is breaking all links with Russia? Would expect this to be wound up and assets sold for roubles in the next few months which are not even convertible to dollars or euros. Could be looking at zero value for these shares after all charges and expenses.
PLZLq
could be an error I guess
PLZLr
previous close 3.9
open 68.5
vol 6120
on my screen
Russian oil sales to India reportedly at 20% discount....not helping oil price.
I believe they are balancing weightings after redemptions.
They voted to continue the fund around a week into the war.
Surgutneftegaz ADR also up over 500%. We do not hold but it is the writing on the wall IMO.
Or oilman even. Same question
Jarv- do you think these 2 funds now want zero exposure to Russian equity? Or just balancing for the redemptions?
this is out of date but shows the holders and sellers https://markets.ft.com/data/investment-trust/tearsheet/profile?s=JRS:LSE
they were selling due to redemptions in their emerging markets funds where they hold JRS as exposure to Russian Equity.
If there is a ceasefire and this is sorted out diplomatically the sanctions will be lifted and JRS will look as cheap as chips,
If anything they may well increase weighting.
Has anybody noticed Polyus in which we have £3m invested. The PAO is up 1.4% at 12,220 Rouble which is 96p
The London price is up 1000% at 65p in London today and still stands at a 30% odd discount to Moscow.
If the MOEX drops 10% tomorrow including the 30% discount all points to 300p here IMO
Hi Jarv
Fair point - selling by Lazard and CoLI is indeed orderly at about 500,000 per day each. If they keep up at this rate, it’s a lot of supply onto the market in next few weeks!
But I am long term long in a big way, and am willing to ignore this selling in the hope and belief that value will scream loudly enough soon
Don't think they are hell bent they have been selling in an orderly fashion
40,776,176 shares in JRS. Reported NAV of 43.03p This implies total assets of ~£17.5. What absolute nonsense!
JRS' holding of 71,192 shares in Norilisk Nickel alone is worth ~£13.5m. These are currently trading on Moex at 20,872 roubles a piece. Converted back to GBP you get the £13.5m
In the short term, apart from possible escalation in war, biggest risk seems to be that Lazard and COLI seem hell bent on exiting at any price, and they still own around 25% of the trust. Not sure if demand will be equal to or greater than this supply.
Gazprom which is 17% of PF is up 15%
other big holdings strongly up are Rosneft up 10%
Retail sector is up 8% odd
VTB Bank is up 10%.
In total approx 50% of the JRS portfolio is up 10%
the balance is up 5% odd in line with the MOEX.
I did the same calculation when the market was trading in selected
shares assuming the rest were down in Sterling terms and came up with 401p
and that was on Monday.
I would say we can add another 7.5% to your 453p, for today, which takes us to
487p. Market opens for foreigners tomorrow so expect a dip, but even 10% from here
is 438p and expect a discount to NAV as well perhaps up to 25%.
I am expecting this to trade at around 300p once they go back to normal pricing.
Although I found the fund had low exposure to ADR's and GDR's they may try and hold
off until these are trading to move to normal pricing, but this IMO is questionable as it
would create a false market for JRS shares.
One last consideration is those with Short positions on Russian ADR/GDR's will need to cover
if a treaty arrives and the ADR/GDR's remain suspended.
Good morning all, I did some calculations last night to see just how far away from realistic valuations the recent NAV updates have been. As of last night, the total market cap of the companies held within the portfolio was £181, 160,104, which equates to £4.53 a share. To arrive at the final numbers, I took the current prices as listed on the MOEX and converted them into pounds, but it would seem last nights calculations are already outdated as MOEX is up today, namely the companies that are the biggest weightings in the fund. Hopefully they start to give us some numbers that are closer to reality so that this can be reflected in the share price.
Oil is down because Biden is putting 180 million barrels (from memory) from reserves into the market.
If a the chances of a treaty leasing to a ceasefire are receding then why is Oil down 5%
MOEX up 5% so far today, plus another 1.5% on the Rouble.
Not too shabby
"markets don't like investors winning"
How does that work then?
Lavrov's visit (https://www.interfax.ru/world/832282) to India
?? All (https://www.moex.com/n46282/?nt=106) Russian stocks will be available on the Moscow Exchange from 9:50 to 18:50 in the main trading mode
??The Moscow Exchange lifts the ban on short sales for clearing members for a number of securities (https://www.moex.com/n46280/?nt=101), but remains for broker clients (https://www.cbr.ru/press /event/?id=12712).
??SPB exchange will start working (https://spbexchange.ru/ru/about/news.aspx?bid=25&news=28296) in the main trading mode from 14:30 Moscow time
It's been coming
Markets don't like investors winning,
Putin will be scheming further Plans and dig in, while the Peace process dawdles along.
Happy days are not ahead yet for the Ukraine peoples-simples !
does it suit USA to keep pouring cold water on talks?
European consumers, macro and micro, are bearing the brunt of the product sanctions....not to mention UN famine relief programme etc.