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Yeah same, there's extreme fear here, which I understand but ultimately this seems to me a safe bet for exponential returns.
Ninjadude
Thanks. So it looks like more than 80% of the value is from shares listed on Moex, and less than 20% is from GDR holdings. If the value was calculated today according to current Moex prices then NAV of JRS shares is probably between £4 and £5.
I would not be surprised to see JRS shares back at this price quite soon, and back at between £8 and £10 within a year or two.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/per/products/jpmorgan-russian-securities-plc-gb0032164732#/portfolio
Click on download pdf
Where do JRS list their exact holdings of Russian shares? There is no list of exact holdings in the annual report. For example, JRS own 100 Gazprom shares listed on Moex, 200 Lukoil GDRs listed in London.
Anyone know where this information can be found?
It could certainly be a 7 bagger, or 10 bagger. The assets are hugely undervalued at various levels. The price is about one quarter of the actual underlying value of the investments on the Moex. And then the Moex is hugely undervalued compared to most other stock markets. Companies like Gazprom and Lukoil are trading at PE ratios that are a fraction of other big energy companies in Europe. And now that the rouble is backed by gold, the rouble is also very undervalued. So if the Moex rises to a fair value level, and the rouble continues to rise, this could easily be a multi bagger within a few years. It would not be surprising to see these trading at £10 or £15 within the next 5 years.
With a half decent dividend I would be more than happ with £4-5 in the medium term, given its a pension purchase anyway and that 6 years off yet.
Definitely looking to end on a peace treaty of some kind so
I think it’s possible but it depends on how and when this war ends
Anyone see this as a 7 bagger over the next year ?
haha thanks manfor....I don't know about you but this just feels like such a surreal investment we are sitting on here. Frustrating in the short term but this thing at somepoint is going to be a complete gold mine...with a stunning dividend yield.
And I think it's most critical to say...shows the importance of an investment trust structure where we are company owners. Think of all those in open ended funds where holders have no say in the future of funds when the manager just says 'right, we are done with russia'. As shareholders, we were able to vote on moving forward at the AGM.
Hopefully next week we get some good paper gains in meantime. Looked like the selling pressure from Lazard ended today...and after sanctions round 5 it looks like sentiment has eased a little...although not much!
If these JRS were exchanged today for shares on Moex, these JRS shares would have a value of about 500 roubles each, or about £5 each at the present exchange rate. Foreign investors may have a long wait to sell out, or maybe the wait will not be long, but they are still probably worth somewhere between £3 and £5 at the present time. And when the war ends they could very easily go back to £7 or £8.
"Russia's operation in Ukraine could end 'in foreseeable future', Kremlin says
The Kremlin said on Friday that what it calls Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine could end in the "foreseeable future" since its aims were being achieved and work was being carried out by both the Russian military and Russian peace negotiators."
https://www.rt.com/russia/553495-operation-ukraine-end-days-kremlin/
Yes, grant I don’t except this sale to last years either. My hunch would be war to fizzle out in May. Normally functioning Russian share trading soon after.
ownthingowntime...good post!!! voicing exactly my thoughts on this. I think your right...could be years, but more minded to think that we will get there sooner.
and as you say....positive news sentiment will allow for some gains in the meantime. It's a funny holding...
That was my 18k shares buy today, looking forward to things looking better soon
sure, an apparent greater prospect of peace will doubtless move the price somewhat for some amount of time. but the fundamental (and much more interesting) issue here seems to be the question of will JRS ever be able realise any value from its Russia investments that are presently locked up on account of some combination of MOEX restrictions, sanctions and Russia being denied certain access to banking systems (the precise mix of which I don't understand).
As to this question: it might well take many months or even years, but I am long term optimistic as I simply don't believe that all those non-Russians who have purchased billions worth of GDRs or ADRS or MOEX equity in Russian companies via long-established financial markets can simply be permanently denied any value whatsoever with no legal redress to anyone (despite and assuming the ongoing operation and profitabitliy of those companies in most cases over the long term). It just doesn't seem plausible. As far as I am aware it would be unprecedented. What seems more plausbile is that, whilst this is a very tricky situation, it is one that is ultimately solvable and will be solved.
Also, on reflection, I am beginning to sympathise somewhat with JRS' continued NAV per share valuations that are but a fraction of MOEX rouble quoted values. Whilst there is but the merest possibility that investors may be permanently deprived of value, they are prudent to represent the situation conservatively. And, if the reality for JRS is the same as it is for me, when they check the quoted value of their Russian holdings that value quoted back to them is indeed, for the time being, £0.00.
At some point over the coming few days I expect a 10-15% correction.
Almost every trade in the last 60 min has been a buy based on the SP. 111.9 is the current ask, showing on LSE as a sell.
Looks like our institutional sellers are still in play.
Once they're gone, I would expect to return to some sort of normality (130p ish)
Well it didn’t see £1.teens for long… just the wrong side of them now.
... and with today's market price of 121.5p means about £50mio value. Therefore, if you distribute the remaining balance of £28mio to the rest of the portfolio, then you can say that the market is pricing 9% of the market price of the value on Feb 28th. It is something like an option premium as some people call it...
Again, this is an extremely risky investment. so no investment advice. just some amateur calculations, and probably wrong.
I am not an expert in these calculations, but my back of envelope estimates are as follows. Please do your own research.
I believe they paid the final dividend of 10p for 40mio shares, so a total of £4mio should be reduced from £18mio... so about £14mio in cash expected as of now. There is also HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC GDR USD in the amount of 842766 shares on Feb 28th. With current prices, it is another £6mio. Then, NAC KAZATOMPROM JSC is about £1.4mio with current prices. So total of £21.4mio which corresponds to about 50p per share. This assumes zero value for the rest of the portfolio.
Cash was 9.8% of the fund on 28/2
Nav on 28/2 was 198.9p.
~£18m
Kazatomprom down about 20% since Jan, £1.2/3m.
That’s nearly 50p / share there alone.
The cash and shares held outside Russia (kazatomprom etc) will still have value.
How much value? Maybe 5p or 10p a share.
The cash and shares held outside Russia (kazatomprom etc) will still have value.