The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Today's share price is just the result of two factors: 1 - market diggesting Putin's order to remove Russian stocks from overseas; 2 - Continuos dumping of shares by large institutions.
Russia is now selling more 300,000 BOPD than before the invasion (news from yesterday). So we know where the value really is!
I’ve just bought topped up and it’s showing as a sell.
This seems to have been neutered by the fire sale NAV. And without a peace deal it's left trading sideways and now further down with no news. It's not as flashy as a gold mine but IMO and the opinion of others on this board, has unrecognised value.
Shares now nearly a pound a go. Topped up another 1k shares in recognition.
GLA
Any idea who this pesky seller is ? Hopefully they are done soon and we can go up.
With POG and POLY now bouncing up sharply, I cannot believe we are sat at 110p. We should be at least at 300p and even 50% of that is 150p.
DYOR
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/erdogan-vows-continued-efforts-for-cease-fire-in-ukraine-war-then-lasting-peace-3594013
Phone talks with Zelenski and Putin
https://news.am/eng/news/697300.html
Thanks!
The Trust is a UK financial asset.
Wise Owls, any opinion or analysis of this? MOEX non recognised by HMRC, but current investments protected. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/19/ftse-100-markets-live-news-energy-oil-gas-economy/ I've got my shares in JRS in both an ISA and my pension!
Don’t think there’s any immediate workaround
But don’t lose sight that odds-on, this all blows over relatively soon and markets resume normal trading. I’d rather JRS just wait it out
“If Russia wanted to never ever allow a sale by a foreigner and capital flows out of its country, could it do this? Maybe it could. Could or would JRS do much about this if it happened, I doubt it.“
So can JRS not do anything else to help realise the true value now? Can they not transfer the trust to a “friendly” country that will allow them to sell at true value? I assume they cannot transfer the assets to a Russian entity, but can they not transfer the assets to a Chinese or Hong Kong company, or any of the other many countries that are dealing normally with Russia.
To your point, manfor. If a Russian were to buy JRS, they’d be taking the same gamble that we are i.e. that one day MOEX will permit foreign sales and repatriation of proceeds, and that those sales will take place at prices similar to the current prices on MOEX. Neither is a certainty.
We are not home and dry yet in terms of avoiding WW3 and a complete and long isolation of Russia from global markets. If Russia wanted to never ever allow a sale by a foreigner and capital flows out of its country, could it do this? Maybe it could. Could or would JRS do much about this if it happened, I doubt it.
Rob
So one stock is worth 36 times the current 'fair value' of the Moex portfolio and over twice the entire portfolio? Is that right?
Yes that is right. The JRS valuations are all complete nonsense. The correct fair net asset value for a Moex/Russian investor buying the shares today is about £3.50. I don’t understand why Russian investors are paying £3.50 for their Moex shares, when they could be buying the same JRS shares on the London stock exchange for £1.
To my mind, the ‘fair value’ being reported reflects the fact that Russian market makers are currently not quoting any offer at all to foreigners (as they’re not allowed to), which is computed as an offer of zero.
Where the £889k comes from, that I am curious.
Today’s RNS tells us nothing that wasn’t already publicly available info.
When will this change? Who knows. Will it definitely change one day? To paraphrase JRS: ‘of that there can be no certainty’. Of course, no certainty is not the same as no probability.
listing as at close of business 28th February 2022
Holding Security Description Market Value % of Fund Security No.
15,491,328.000 GAZPROM 28,497,725.51 23.34% 4364928
16,810,961.000 SBERBANK OF RUSSIA 15,276,667.79 12.51% B56CB23
624,696.000 LUKOIL 14,140,543.81 11.58% 4560588
71,192.000 MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 1 9,829,942.20 8.05% 7131431
3,719,692.000 ROSNEFT OIL CO 7,614,060.08 6.24% B17KP48
842,766.000 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC GDR USD 6,356,468.87 5.21% B1KDG41
230,421.000 NOVATEK PJSC GDR USD 4,503,360.05 3.69% B0DK750
97,567.000 JSC KASPI.KZ GDR-REG S 4,362,973.83 3.57% BMXZ8G7
180,877.000 MAGNIT PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 3,965,441.81 3.25% B1393X4
1,301,425.000 TATNEFT PJSC 3,153,905.52 2.58% 5452208
6,156,103.000 ROSTELECOM PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.0025 3,022,430.68 2.48% 5004148
21,233,273,216.000 VTB BANK PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 2,957,228.89 2.42% B1WMD67
169,819.000 YANDEX NV COMMON STOCK USD 0.01 2,399,678.27 1.97% B5BSZB3
4,003,270.000 DETSKY MIR PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.0004 2,388,286.55 1.96% BYM4171
59,546.000 POLYUS PJSC GDR 2,383,171.43 1.95% BYXL3S6
4,198,000.000 UNITED CO RUSAL INTERNATIONAL PJSC COMMON STOCK HKD 0.656517 2,190,289.06 1.79% BNGCVV8
552,780.000 SEVERSTAL PAO GDR USD 2,121,719.44 1.74% B1G4YH7
365,735.000 NOVOLIPETSK STEEL PJSC GDR USD 2,094,781.85 1.72% B0RTNX3
65,502.000 NAC KAZATOMPROM JSC 1,432,818.14 1.17% BGXQL36
12,313,057.000 SISTEMA PJSFC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.09 1,101,095.21 0.90% B06K6Y9
432,517.000 MD MEDICAL GROUP INVESTMENTS PLC GDR USD 967,058.71 0.79% B8JZ5X9
75,226.000 TCS GROUP HOLDING PLC GDR 545,742.42 0.45% BF233S0
275,182.000 X5 RETAIL GROUP NV GDR USD 1 543,903.62 0.45% B07T3T9
577,525.000 FIX PRICE GROUP LTD GDR 241,038.95 0.20% BN30342
Total portfolio 122,090,332.69 100.00%
It looks from this like the full holding of 15 million Gazprom is in Moex shares. If it is GDR or ADR it will say it. Over 80% of the total portfolio value seem to be in Moex shares. So a total portfolio value of £120 million gives assets per share of £3. When the war is over it will be nearer £5. And in two years it will be nearer £10. So it is just a matter of waiting.
The prices JRS are using now are simply absurd nonsense. Russian investors are buying Gazprom on the Moex today for over £2 a share, and JRS have 15 million Gazprom shares and they are saying they are worthless. It is all nonsense.
Manfor, the RNS says that Russian equities are worth 5% of the £17,777,555 net assets.
In today’s RNS it says thatJRS are valuing their Moex shares at 5% and their GDRs at less than 1% ! Why are JRS using a valuation of only 5% for their Moex equities that are trading on the Moex today for 100% ? Why are they using such an absurd low figure? Why not value them at 95% as it is much closer to the real figure? Or even 50% if they want to be very cautious. Where do they get 5% from?
And it says they own 15.4 million Gazprom shares at 28th February. Last time I looked at the holdings they had over 16 million Gazprom. How has the holding reduced? Have JRS been selling any of their holdings since the start of the war?
The Stocks still there
If these are trading at a 75% discount to the underlying shares on the Moex, is it just a matter of time before they return to the same Moex price of £5 ? What are the risks, if there are any, of this not happening?
There is always wild talk about nationalisation and appropriation but is there any real basis for this? Has any government ever actually stolen the shares of foreign investors? There is no talk for example that UK might steal the shares of ordinary Russian investors who may own LSE shares such as Tesco and Lloyds. They may take the assets of the oligarchs with ties to Putin, but there is no talk about stealing the UK shares of ordinary Russian people.
It would be illegal under international law if Russia did this, and how would Russia even do it, as there are so many different nationalities of shareholders. JRS for example may have many shareholders from countries that Russia views as “friendly” countries.
So do these eventually return to £5 ?
Thanks for the expert opinion, could be worth your time having a read into what this actually is.
The war will go longer so this will drag on longer and suddenly will go bust .
* don’t need to worry about!
Fortunately JRS going bust isn’t something we need to worry about, no matter how long the war goes on. It has no debt.
Metom if its going bust you probably should sell sell sell sell. Don't lose time!
this amount of fear and uncertainty, and the prospect of things getting even worse on the ground in Ukraine before they get better, and yet JRS rumbles along basically sideways. suggests to me that we're bouncing along the bottom. perhaps nothing too extreme for commited holders to stomach in the next few weeks, nor any opportunities to add at completely ridiculous levels. we shall see.