Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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JS, it’s already been pointed out that the RNS then goes on to say that this was a statement made at the time based on current understanding and caveated such that any claims of misleading investors could be explained away.
Silence is never golden on AIM. Never…
Agree with you Abatt there is no way the Nomad would have let Mr post the RNS . If it was false then it’s fraud but then again we are dealing with AIM casino . Has anyone actually been done for misleading investors
Just another milestone that’s being clutched at to justify undue delay on a 4 month delivery window.
Tick tock indeed….
29 business days till the deadline stated.
However, can't see this running for that long (if of course there is a deal).
In Q1 was stated, and I doubt any CEO would announce dates that were potentially right to the wire.
Dick's thoughts on the Budget date seem like a sensible timeline, but I suppose (hope) that an announcement comes sooner.
Morning Dick your weekend prayers definitely worked for Serica . Can all holders continue praying for Jog .
If the Budget has no new nasty shocks might we expect a positive announcement the following week ?? Just a thought.
This share has driven me crazy !. The other day the misses was complaining that in the middle of the night whilst sleeping she heard me saying ‘come on Mr B ‘ .
Just 6 more Monday's remain in the quarter, and 30 business days never expected to have to wait this long, hope it is worth it. Having seen 350p I am looking for a decent advance on that, so 600p will do.
29 November 2022:
..........."Although multiple fiscal changes have slowed progress with closing out commercial farm-out discussions, we look forward to a successful conclusion if not by the end of the year then certainly in Q1 2023."..........
Having had a significant holding in Trap Oil that led to me having 10,000 JOG shares which I sold for 200p in 2019 I still keep a weather eye on JOG. Honestly I would still have had them but used the £64k hit to offset against other gains.
I still consider that a tie up with Serica Energy would be beneficial to both companies but just can't see much of a premium on the price at present and £8.00 seems very ambitious.
Serica's Tailwind offer says it all re "discount".
Perhaps an offer of 0.9 shares in Serica for every Jog share and lucrative options for Exec's would entice them and yet again leave only pennies for PI's. On the plus side is a nice dividend going forward, capital gains and Bruce used to offset Hunts tax raid until 2028.
Timing is everything and I sincerely hope all LTH especially Dick get some reward here - and may well tuck some away myself. GLA
Abatt - this is really poor…
‘Do think no deal is very likely based on asking too high a price….’
Based on what fact are you saying that?
Evening All
I’m just catching up on the narrative. Have been away for the week so other than the 7am check ins, I haven’t read much
I had a quick read back through the analysts notes in November. WH Ireland remained confident, stating likely the first farm-out to get Development funding, Finn cap pushed through a material target upgrade, Arden remained positive.
The EPL revision facts were all known at this point. Since then the only real com change in Hunt confirming that they won’t change further and will behave responsibly. The labour uncertainty factor was also known at this point. KS had made noise on no exploration funding., but then EM has reiterated the importance of the NS. This was all largely known.
Energy voice have ran a piece stating that assets (like jogs) that are pre production and largely known are likely to be highly desirable.
As a journalist I rate ST at the IC a lot. Yep he gets things wrong from time to time, but his commentary on JOG over recent years is almost at a conviction level
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/12/15/simon-thompson-my-views-on-2023/
If you look at the comments ST made in December (after the last Jog announcement and with the EPL modification confirmed) he mentions JOG twice. Once as part of an undervalued sector that the market will recognise in time and again in the same article with a reference to the importance of the right management (he sites the former Ithaca team clearly). It is the only example of capable management he gives…
I find it hard to believe .. given the known and unknown knowns that he would do this unless he was confident …
Who knows why it’s taking so long.. the ‘if not by December’ comment could have been a clear message to one of the interested parties.. either make your play or we’re opening it up to others in the race..
They have plenty of cash.. the Ithaca guys (inc Les Thomas in his first chairmanship have their reputations on the line)
From memory the EPL offset needs to be confirmed by existing producers by end of March.. or something along those lines ..
There is every reason to stay calm (despite it feeling bloody uncomfortable) and believing this is going to happen in a materially favourable way!!
DYOR - I’ve done mine and I’m sitting patiently (semi :-) )
Abbatt, RL is the only one i would've kept on myself from the previous c suite team; Benitz should've been the first to go - arrogance and ambitions far beyond what is being shown as his rather ineffectual leadership and complete inability to close a deal. No doubt we'll soon be reading that they've awarded themselves big pay raises for delivering shareholder value. We still haven't actually managed to monetize that great value for most shareholders, but never mind, at least AB is well provided for. Shareholders should've revolted.when RL was shown the door and.called a meeting to terminate AB and put the company into an FSP.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1006549/enquest-shares-spooked-by-lower-production-guidance-1006549.html?rel=scroll It does seem to be a hard slog out there atm, all the more reason to take a deal when one's on offer rather than wait for the perfect deal that might never happen, the closer we get to the end of March the more it's looking like in hindsight it's just backing them into a corner
1471 shares a tad below 200p increases my average but round up the holding.
I firmly believe in the good faith of management. Not because I think I'm a good judge of character, but because not only did RL, VG and AB take up the cause - then Les Thomas was next, and then 2 more of his trusted lieutenants. They can't all be dishonest.
The asset is quality, scarce and in the right place.
Our worry should be the shape of the deal - can they monetise their situation, we'll see soon enough.
Apologies to all for bringing up Xcite .
Many (like me) lost their shirts with that debacle, and the weasel words from the BOD still hurt.
Their was a member of the management team who stood up at an event and told everyone that the shares would be some of the then then share price (roughly £3 or £4 at the time from memory - we didn't grasp that the "multiple" was to be downwards to zero). Not long after a bunch of them sold shares, which should have been the 100 foot high warning sign that we were being had.
Painful, painful stuff - the biggest culprit being myself for being taken in, when I really should have known better.
The lesson, moral or whatever, is that I take these pronouncements from the Directors with a pinch of salt (rightly or wrongly).
The adage "full me once, shame on you; full me twice, shame on me" rings loud.
So all of that experience may lead me to be pretty harsh/ suspicious to CEO's, which in JOG's case may be wholly unwarranted (I will be delighted to come back on here and eat a whole trolley load of humble pie when a great deal arrives - aisle 26 in the local Aldi has a great selection of flavours - might have to find the Marks and Spencer range if it is as good as I hope/ dream)
I hope with all my heart that is the case, firstly from a financial perspective for my selfish self, but from the humanity point of view, I would like to see people succeed (I think what the JOG Directors have done really does merit success both from a financial and business satisfaction perspective).
The caveat - if March comes and goes, I'm afraid any credibility Andrew has will go with it, together with a marked reduction in the share price.
Others will make the pronouncements from then on.
I hope it doesn't play out that way.
Finally, given the "certainly" quip, I am guessing that there two (at least) offers on the go.
One, which may be a buy out, with a pretty low ball offer of some £ 3 ish open for acceptance for 90 days (some time in March). Let's call it the safety net; the last chance saloon or whatever, date set by the proposed purchaser.
Another deal(s) being discussed, probably farm out)s) on much better terms, but with a JOG stated deadline on it of mid March.
As usual, could be miles wrong, but trying to understand other circumstances where "certainly" would be allowed to pass the Regulatory scrutiny.
Whilst we are all praying Mr B continues to draw his generous Salary . As much as I hate to admit it perhaps Briggs is right . Silence is not doing the shares any justice . Yes I agree with some on here the CEO is very poor in dealings with shareholders .
"Have a god weekend"..................
...............it comes to something when we're asked to spend our leisure days praying...............
Not a bad idea though. What is there to lose?
He’s always mentioned ‘ in the best interest of our shareholders’. Can somebody explain what does Mr B mean by this narrative ?
I have faith in our CEO when it comes to thrashing out a deal with potential partners /buyers.
I just have little faith in what we are told as PI's
Personally I'd be surprised, if JOG held more gas then maybe, but https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/centrica-marks-further-uk-shift-away-from-oil-through-sale-of-norwegian-assets-12489951 . Hopefully the longer talks go on any partner isn't coming to the same conclusion as Madcrann, would be a shame for everyone to lose so much for the sake of one man's assessment over their own ability to deliver and their ego/personality to get in the way. The tax situation may have worsened but price of oil and need for energy security and diminishing assets available should at least partially offset that imo.
Could Centrica be involved? - that is my Question
I note they commenced buy backs in November 22, and announced further buy backs yesterday (so £550m in total)
The strange thing is they are not cancelling the shares, but holding them in treasury.
One thing I'll never forget was when Mr B went live explaining how this was a a short term six bagger, it was only weeks before the leak that lead to the capital raise. It would seem he was trying to manipulate the share price higher so that the raise would generate more free income, but brought the raise forward once the plan had been leaked.
So.. Personally, the less Mr B has to say the better, as I don't trust a word he utters.
The Company's most recent guidance was, I believe, that there's enough cash to see it through to the end of this year.
Ref who it's best to filter, Cyril, I'd suggest you put me on the list. I've been consistently wrong on the timing of the much talked-of farm out for the last 2 years at least, so have inadvertently misled anyone who's been daft enough to take any notice of my views and opinions.
History is often a guide to what's likely to happen in the future. I was confident that Xcite Energy's oil 266mmboe of mostly 1P in the NS, albeit on the heavy side, would attract a farm in partner back in 2015/16. I made the naive assumption that directors (CEOs in particular) tell the truth and that outright trickery and ultimate dishonesty involving some quite big City names was unlikely to feature in a company I'd put a great deal of research into. Cost me a packet to learn what I thought then was a valuable lesson. But despite all the work I've put into understanding everything I can about an investment that's significant to me, yet again I find it all comes down to whether a CEO has been telling it as it is and - if he has - will it produce the right value?
I'm not saying it won't all work out well in the end. Just that what appeared to be a strong likelihood of success has ended up becoming 'binary', fitting in perfectly with the investment strategy I seem to have been most closely aligned with since whenever (s.hit or bust).
The difficultiesthat have will have arisen here couldn't realistically have been predicted. Who would ever have thought a Conservative Govt would introduce punitive taxes on an industry the nation needs to be at its strongest in these troubled times? Insincere vote-seeking combined with utter stupidity in equal measure. And as for the opposition, which intends to increase the pain by upping the tax rate 3% and withdrawing the reinvestment relief, which sane CEO of any credible oil & gas co would ever look to invest in the NS again?
Did anyone see Kinnock jnr (shadow immigration?) on QT last night? He dismissed the audience question: "won't windfall taxes on energy companies frighten off future investment" he gave the brainless answer: "not at all, because these companies know they have only made profits that have arisen because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine".
That's ok then - silly me. I was looking at what happened last time when Brown put the rate up to 60% back in the day. Steadily decreasing tax revenue immediately followed, culminating in 'nil' taxation returns in two full tax years (2014/15?) and virtually 'nil' in the next. It took Osborne's reduction to 40% to trigger a period of slow of recovery.
Ref your 'filter' recommendations, Cyril. My blog adviser (who's in the know on this sort of thing) tells me the real names of two of the three you mention are 'Stan' and 'Oliver'. The other's called 'Warren". That's the comparison imv.
Back to the medicinal recliner now.........have a good day a