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Talking nonsense EinbertAlstein, did you watch the video -I think you vote for this party? "The Loony Party would issue fifty trillion pounds of quantitative easing and give all voters free lunch and complimentary drinks".
Brilliant video, no mention of future projects, operatorship, etc. come buy us. They’ve delivered to promise so far, two farm outs at £6 a share, no way they won’t close the deal for their share of the prize. Very exciting 2024 ahead!
Thus investment allowance will quietly stay, no endangering further development of GBA
I think the 3% satisfies politically and doesn't make things worse than they already are.
Withdrawing the investment allowance stops everything immediately dead pretty much, a car crash of job losses and a potentially embarrassing U-turn.
My take.
Due to the tax changes this has gone from one of the best under-priced shares too close to uninvestable. UKGOV PLC happy to hammer away for years at oil companies making 'supermassive profilts' apparently because gas price spiked for 6 months.
Nervous? The boy clearly has no idea what he’s talking about.
Good content, nervously presented.
Hard to imagine that they will get more than £7 before 2026 with labour government policy on the horizon. Given their polling position they may still take a tough stance on the capital incentive withdrawal. I thought AB handled the question reasonably well, but he was hardly going to say anything else.
I personally thought they hoisted a for sale sign last night - but let’s see
They had a very good 2023… but personally given the clear risk on the horizon I would rather they got on with selling it for 3.5x todays value ..
DYOR
Surety, it does depend on what you perhaps want to hear.
He clearly indicated that the wider area was next in line after the Buchan project was up and running. There is vision beyond Buchan albeit there's enough on their plate for now. A bidder needs to remember there is more, or am I being greedy? I just think 7 quid, whilst newsworthy doesn't mean it's a fair value.
Interesting to listen to the q+a at the end
He is asked the inevitable ‘labour party’ perspective. Handles it reasonably well..
DYOR but they are painting a value disconnect of 3.5 x the market cap .. feels more a ‘we’d welcome a bid aroind that value please!’ Watch this space.. there is little in the form of the future for Jog beyond Buchan! In my mind it translates as were up for sale.. here’s the guide price!!
Interesting that men ' of a certain age' appear the majority of the audience present - if the baldness quotient is factored in.
Thanks for that Troajan.
Onthe 6/EinbertAlstein
JOG’s latest presentation does indeed say they are fully funded to first oil but this is qualified with footnote (1) which reads “Full carry for JOG’s 20% share of Buchan pre-FDP costs plus the development capital expenditure budget included in the Buchan FDP approved by the NSTA” and needs to be read carefully. You also need to read the FO agreement terms which for NEO read “12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio” and for Serica “7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio”
All of this suggests to me they have guaranteed full carry to FDA approval but only full carry on the budgeted cost of field development post approval by the NTSA meaning that if the actual field development costs exceed the budgeted cost JOG will have to contribute.
The field development programme will include rig hire plus the purchase and installation of all the subsea structure, so a substantial amount and if there is a cost overrun my perception is that JOG will have to contribute 20% of that overrun.
I raised this question previously, see my post 25 Jan 2024 23:22 when I asked for views and opinions.
So much interesting discussion today :) Unlike a few of the other boards I occasionally pester where they are all just fighting about how rich they are going to be when, despite the fact that a few of them need to be 20 baggers just to get some of the people their money back! (Rather sums up the IQ problem Britain has with the electorate.)
Frankly, I have often thought that perhaps voting should be weighted towards those who actually are net contributors to the national coffers - after all you don't see many companies (at least not ones which last very long) listening to non-customers at the expense of their actual clients. But I digress.
I suspect there is very much truth that has been spoken on here, and a lot that I completely disagree with (it's always great, don't you think, to hear other opinions which generate such feelings, the polar opposite of the mealy mouthed nonsense which our politicos spout daily in a constant effort to be seen to be relevant but without saying anything which might possibly offend anyone whatsoever.)
Wealth taxes, yes you bet they're coming to the UK - just look at the O&G industry: Norway all the way (at least on the tax to the gvmt front, likely absolutely nothing like Norway when it comes to refunding losses in cash each fiscal year!) And Norway has wealth taxes - approximately 1% of anything over about 130k in net worth. Yeap, 130,000 GBP and anything above that and you pay a little over 1% of that excess amount every year to the gvmt for the privilege of having "formue". Includes everything - houses, cars, bank deposits, ISAs, stocks and shares (minus the mortgage and car loan.) Of course what is missing in this calculus is that Norwegian council tax is about half that of the UK, but you can bet that LIEbour will ignore that and just want 1%. Probably starting on things like investment property and second homes, then it will quickly become main residence, then ISAs, cars, etc.
I don't agree that Rachel Reeves gets it about economics, if she did they'd never have announced the 78% tax on O&G whilst disallowing the "loophole" (whoever heard of effectively R&D and infrastructure development in any industry being called a loophole when writing it off against tax?!) Where do they get these cret1n5? Does the national party just stop into Idiots'r'Us and pick up party leaders at the same time as future chancellors? Perhaps they get a multi-buy discount. (I hope so, because we're sure gonna pay for it in the end.) So it will start out as a tax on "millionaires" (which is basically any lower middle class person living in London, Bristol or the SE.) And quickly become a tax on the middle class, just as stamp duty has.
Yes, the Tories are DIRE and deserve electoral wipeout. What follows will be worse because the socialists are the people the Tories normally have to clean up after, and the Tories have left the country in such a mess because cleaning up would've involved hard choices and they didn't have the spin
Re: Tory failure to tackle neo- Marxism.
Another quote from TCW that i mentioned below that puts it so well :-
" The failure of the Conservatives to adhere to the political philosophy so superbly articulated by Lord Frost is not new. Embrace of the new authoritarianism and shift leftwards is their hallmark. Mimicking Labour, however, is no longer an election-winning strategy. Appeasement has not won respect nor will it diminish public hostility to a party that has no chance of taking power until it sees the error of its ways. "
We need a new Centre-Right Party .
"
Re Millario - " Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves studied at New College, Oxford ..... I would wager she knows her stuff"
House of C stuffed with Oxbridge graduates as has Cabinets and mediocrity is all that has engaged - there's nothing about Reeves that gives confidence otherwise - she seems doctrinaire and determined to wreck the UK oil industry.
Labour love high spending but wont have the money ( borrowed money) to be able to do it - so I wouldn't be surprised half way thru their term Reeves introduces a Wealth Tax - starting with £2M house, but the figure will quickly come down as they need more.
CHF , now that I do agree with :-)
I'm not a labour cheerleader btw but Just for S&G's
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves studied at New College, Oxford and the London School of Economics before working as an economist at the Bank of England, the British Embassy in Washington, D.C., and HBOS.
I would wager that she knows her stuff.
Re Millario - ( Of the Conservative Party) - " The blind faith in them is really bizarre to me. ".
I agree - and it has made them complacent and indifferent to public opinion, not to mention mediocre over a wide field of governance.
Sorry - below was a response to EinbertAlstein not Millario
I've lost count of the number of people i've come across that protect the Tory Party to the hilt regardless of even the facts that prove them to be terrible . The blind faith in them is really bizarre to me.
Re: Millario : As is said in an article in today's TCW of Lord Frost's speech in a recent House of Lord's debate -
" But his penetrating analysis of the threat to liberty in the Liberal Democrat peer’s Private Member’s Bill exposed the Conservatives’ 14-year failure to tackle the neo-Marxist authoritarianism that has swept through this country’s institutions."
That sums it up - we looked to the Tory Party to protect us from neo-Marxist authoritarianism that is roaring thru UK institutions and they haven't wanted to know, preferring to keep their heads down and in some cases ( like Penny Mordaunt) even join the Woke Army.
For 14 years they haven't wanted to engage and fight the woke onslaught on our behalf - so what use are they at all.
Diane Abbott is irrelevant small fry.
I've been hearing that tory line about labour and the economy for the last 45 years, I've even heard 20 somethings saying it like a labour government will bring a financial armageddon
Covid aside lets not kidnourselves the last 14 years of Tory government have been absolutely abysmal, cost of living increase, brexit (which is all the work of the right of the party namely the ERG) law and order worse than ever in my memroy, immigration out of control, inflation, constant party in-fighting, fuel bills, more people in poverty, increase in homelessness, increase in food banks and people in poverty all under their watch but hey vote for them again and more of the same because no one else could possibly do a better job or have any better ideas.
Generally speaking it's the poor & rich at the extreme ends of the scale that will be most affected by a labour government not those in the middle.
As bad as the Conservatives have become, they don’t have MPs like Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn. I think both of these people have had the whip removed but there are still dozens of them who share their views. Remember Sir Keir supported Corbyn at the last general election. He may be trying to use ‘Anti Semitism’ as a way of trying to apparently distance himself from the communists in the party but they are still there.
There may be dimwits, fools and fibbers on the Conservative benches but I don’t believe there are any communists.